Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
THE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.  WHILE
IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT
ON CANCUN RADAR.  AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL
POSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA
TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO
THREE DAYS.  AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL
GO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING.

WILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND
OVER YUCATAN TODAY.   HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
IT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
INCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES
FLORIDA.  THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A
CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL.  THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A
LARGE AREA.
 
BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.  A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 21.3N  87.0W   100 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.7N  87.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  86.5W   100 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 23.8N  84.8W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 25.6N  82.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  72.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 42.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/1200Z 47.5N  47.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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