Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
 
THE EYE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND IS BECOMING
LESS DISCERNIBLE ON IR IMAGES....BUT IT REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED ON
CANCUN RADAR. VERY USEFUL DATA HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL
MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC COASTAL STATIONS AROUND YUCATAN.  THE
STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE
NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE EYE IS
MOVING OVER YUCATAN.  A MODEST STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR ONCE THE
HURRICANE MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BEYOND 48 HOURS
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILMA
IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER
CROSSING FLORIDA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING
FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE
HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY
WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.
 
WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GRADUAL
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND FORCE WILMA TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT MAKING THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST MORE CERTAIN. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE THAT
HURRICANE WILMA WILL CROSS FLORIDA IN A HURRY ON MONDAY. THE LONGER
THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE.   

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR
TWO AT LANDFALL.  WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT
CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.
 
BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 20.9N  87.2W   110 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  87.3W    90 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  87.0W   100 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N  86.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 24.5N  83.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  74.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 41.0N  64.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     27/0600Z 46.0N  54.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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