Hurricane WILMA

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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005
 
WILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS
FROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS
BEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD
BE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS.  ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION
NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

WILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST
HURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 16.5N  80.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N  81.2W    75 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N  82.3W    90 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N  83.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N  84.5W   105 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  84.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 28.5N  78.5W    75 KT
 
 
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