Hurricane FELIX

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HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
 
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.  THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. 
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT.  AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING
MADE.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0000Z 13.8N  72.9W   145 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.1N  74.5W   150 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.8N  78.0W   145 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N  81.1W   145 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.5W   145 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   135 KT
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  91.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    90 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN
 
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