Hurricane NOEL

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HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69
KT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
NOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION
EVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER.  THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL
SHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND
700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  IF
THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL
WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING.  WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS
OVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.   AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN
BEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING
IS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50
KT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 29.2N  73.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 37.1N  69.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 41.8N  66.9W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 47.5N  62.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 58.0N  54.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  47.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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