Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

...EMILY STRENGTHENS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.  A HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.  A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST OR ABOUT 365
MILES... 590 KM... EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
640 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EMILY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF  983
MB...29.03 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS
ACROSS YUCATAN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...22.9 N... 92.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

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