Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
0900Z THU JUL 14 2005
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO ARE DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO PUNTO FIJO...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE COAST AND WEST OF
CUMANA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND
ARUBA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  62.3W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE  90SE  60SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  62.3W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  61.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.0N  64.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N  71.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.4N  75.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N  82.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 22.5N  92.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N  62.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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