Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052005
0900Z WED JUL 13 2005
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.
 
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS.  A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  56.3W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  56.3W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N  55.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.6N  58.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 12.4N  61.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.3N  64.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N  67.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N  56.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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