Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005
 
EMILY HAS ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED AGAIN...WHICH WE KNOW THANKS TO
FREQUENT FIXES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION TONIGHT.  SINCE ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 15 MB TO 954 MB.  VERY RECENT MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AS HIGH AS 128 KT IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...UP FROM 108 KT IN THAT SAME QUADRANT JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.  THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE DOUBLE
WIND MAXIMA AT ABOUT 8 AND 50 NMI...SUGGESTING CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS...SO A REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO FORECAST SUCH
STRUCTURAL CHANGES...SO I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 115
KT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE INCREASINGLY
WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE INTENSITY COULD OF
COURSE FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES.  EMILY MIGHT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IF IT SPENDS
ENOUGH TIME OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION...SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME WOBBLES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...IS ESTIMATED AT 285/16.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TAKES EMILY ON MUCH THIS SAME HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL AND SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND A LITTLE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHEN EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS THIS TIME SHIFTED SOUTH.  AS WE USUALLY DO
WHEN THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH...I WILL ONLY MAKE A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT...A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 15.1N  74.2W   115 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.8N  76.6W   115 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  79.9W   115 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.6N  83.2W   115 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.1N  86.4W   115 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  92.0W    85 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  96.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
 
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