Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATE
THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL
WIND RECORDED AS THE PLANE LEFT THE CYCLONE WAS 101 KNOTS WITH A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD TO 90 KNOTS AND THIS IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. IT IS NOT
UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT WITH THE MID OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT LARGE MID TO
UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER
EMILY. NEVERTHERELESS...THE HURRICANE IS PUTTING UP A GOOD FIGHT
AGAINST THE SHEAR. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING THE
UPPER-LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF SUCH WEAKENING YET...AND IN FACT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES
TOWARD THE HURRICANE ARE STRONGER NOW THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS
INSIST ON FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN
ADDITION...EMILY IS HEADING FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH AND HISTORICALLY CYCLONES INTENSIFY.
THE BEST OPTION DESPITE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF EMILY IS TO
KEEP THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND FORECAST A
MODEST INTENSIFICATION THERAFTER.
 
EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS AND
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST YET.
BECAUSE EMILY IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN HIGH TO THE
NORTH...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS TURN AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT
IT IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 14.7N  72.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 15.2N  75.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N  78.9W    95 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.3N  82.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W   105 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  91.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 25.0N  96.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
 
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