Hurricane EMILY

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HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005
 
EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 128 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0505Z DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. THE PRESSURE
HAD ALSO DECREASED TO 952 MB...DOWN ANOTHER 4 MB IN JUST 2 HOURS.
SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED IN
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EMILY HAD AN 8 NMI DIAMETER
EYE FOR NEARLY 6 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS PROBABLY GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/17...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MORE
THAN 24 HOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH A STRONG AND
PERSISTENT PAST MOTION...BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL
MODEL ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON TAKING EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN 30-36 HOURS...AND THEN
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS LESS
THAN A 60 NMI SPREAD IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WERE
SIMILARLY IN STRONG AGREEMENT 3 DAYS AGO...AND NOW EMILY IS 250 NMI
SOUTH OF THOSE FORECAST POSITIONS! THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN
PREMATURE IN WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT
EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALL THE WAY
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...
HEIGHTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...IF ANY AT ALL...FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB
ACROSS FLORIDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST
IN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT 285 DEGREES
AND REMAIN TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NEAR 29C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD EASILY RETAIN AN INTENSITY OF CATEGORY 3
TO CATEGORY 4 UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS OVER THE YUCATAN. AFTER EMILY
EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...29-30C SSTS SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 13.9N  69.2W   115 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  71.8W   115 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.8N  75.3W   115 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N  78.7W   115 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N  82.2W   115 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  88.0W   100 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N  93.0W   105 KT...OVER SW GULFMEX
120HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  97.0W   105 KT
 
 
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