Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 265/17.  THIS MOTION IS
TAKING EMILY ON A TRACK TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  THEREFORE...A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO
THE ENTIRE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE NOGAPS IS
THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...AND GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR THIS
YEAR...AND THE CURRENT MOTION TRENDS...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE
CORRECT.  HOWEVER...I WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
TRACKS...AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN LACKING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESUMED...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN
EDGE.  00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND SINCE THEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED.  GIVEN
THE TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 50 KT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BRINGING EMILY TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 10.7N  54.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 11.1N  57.2W    55 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 11.8N  60.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 12.7N  63.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N  66.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N  73.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  79.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W   100 KT
 
 
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