Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005
 
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...
EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT
FROM AFWA.  GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM.  SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL
LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY.  SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/2100Z 11.1N  52.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/0600Z 11.5N  55.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     13/1800Z 12.1N  58.6W    65 KT
 36HR VT     14/0600Z 13.0N  61.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.0N  64.8W    85 KT
 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  71.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N  77.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  83.0W   100 KT
 
 
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