Tropical Depression FIVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING.
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SUGGESTED THAT THIS SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAY MERELY BE A SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED
BROADER LOW. IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT IS THE BROADER LOW THAT MAY
ULTIMATELY PREVAIL. RATHER THAN JERK THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE SWIRL...I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE BROADER SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF T2.0...ARE GOOD REASONS NOT TO
UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.

WHILE THERE IS PRESENTLY SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH REGARDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.  GIVEN THIS...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...WHICH
DEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...CONTINUES TO MAKE
THE CYCLONE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 270/10. SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS.  IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/1500Z 10.3N  44.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.4N  46.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.8N  48.9W    40 KT
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 11.5N  52.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/1200Z 12.2N  55.2W    50 KT
 72HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N  61.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  67.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W    70 KT
 
 
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