Tropical Depression FIVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS NOW A RAGGED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE T2.0...I.E. 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 270/10. 
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING
CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 10.8N  43.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 11.1N  45.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 11.6N  48.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 12.1N  50.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 12.6N  53.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N  60.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N  66.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N  71.0W    70 KT...INLAND
 
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