Tropical Depression TWENTY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
   YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM... SOUTHEAST OF
TULUM MEXICO AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...
THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO SOME ERRATIC
MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. DURING
THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER
BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...53 KM/HR.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.
 
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.7 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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