Hurricane STAN

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...STAN IS NOW A RAINMAKER...
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 
96.8 WEST...OVER THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR.
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. STAN IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
STAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINFALL OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN IN THE STATES OF VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...17.3 N... 96.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHWEST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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