Tropical Depression TWENTY

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2005

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EASTERN 
   YUCATAN PENINSULA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO
CAMPECHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM... SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO
AND ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
 
THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  6 MPH...9 KM/HR... IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE... SO
SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS... AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. DURING THE PAST HOUR... NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NORTH OF
THE CENTER BRIEFLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...54 KM/HR.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES... WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN BELIZE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS
WESTERN CUBA.
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...19.2 N... 86.5 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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