Tropical Storm STAN

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TROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202005
0600Z TUE OCT 04 2005
 
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM EAST OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO CHILITEPEC.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE
WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  94.1W AT 04/0600Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  70 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  45SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE  45SE   0SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  94.1W AT 04/0600Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  93.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N  94.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  45SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N  94.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.7N  95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N  94.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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