Hurricane STAN

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN HAS BECOME VERY
ILL-DEFINED.  THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM IS LOSING CHARACTERISTICS AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE
DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING OVER VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... AND THE
REMNANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER EXIST LATER TODAY. 
HOWEVER... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINING VORTICITY IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST
THIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.

EVEN THOUGH STAN IS DISSIPATING AND HAS LOST ALL CORE CONVECTION...
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. 
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...  THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 16.9N  97.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.7N  97.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN