Tropical Storm STAN

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TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005
 
SHIP REPORTS FROM EIJV AND ZCAM4 JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF
THE YUCATAN...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS...INDICATE THAT EVEN
THOUGH STAN IS MOVING INLAND IT IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS IN BANDS STILL OFFSHORE.  WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED
ON THESE DATA.  ALTHOUGH STAN COULD MAINTAIN THESE WINDS DURING ITS
PASSAGE OVER LAND...OFFSHORE FLOW MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT THESE
WINDS WOULD BE FELT ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN. 
FOR THIS REASON THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING UPGRADED TO A
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE BUT BELIEVED TO BE 290/6.  AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS
OUT...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN
COAST...HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD
SLOW...BOTH BECAUSE IT WOULD BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
A DISTUBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

ONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN...WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 19.8N  88.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N  89.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N  91.4W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N  95.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N  97.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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