Hurricane RITA

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HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA GRADUALLY HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS... 

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN....AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STROM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630
KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
 
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. ANYTROPICAL STROM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH QUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS. AT 3 PM CDT...A NOAA BUOY
REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 89 MPH...143 KM/HR WITH A GUST
TO 112 MPH...180 KM/HR. 
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 
913 MB...26.96 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM 15
INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...TOTALS ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. 

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N... 89.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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