Tropical Depression EIGHTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182005
1500Z SUN SEP 18 2005
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY
TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  72.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  72.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  71.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.6N  73.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.2N  76.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.7N  78.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 23.8N  80.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N  72.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
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