Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Get Storm Info
   Satellite | Radar
   Aircraft Recon
   Advisory Archive
   Experimental
   Mobile Products
   E-mail Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   GIS Data | RSS XML/RSS logo
   Help with Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic and E Pacific
   Forecast and
   Analysis Tools

   Help with Marine
Hurricane Awareness
   Be Prepared | Learn
   Frequent Questions
   AOML Research
   Hurricane Hunters
   Saffir-Simpson Scale
   Forecasting Models
   Eyewall Wind Profiles
   Glossary/Acronyms
   Storm Names
   Breakpoints
Hurricane History
   Seasons Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
   Climatology
   Most Extreme
About the NHC
   Mission and Vision
   Personnel | Visitors
   NHC Virtual Tour
   Library
   Joint Hurr Testbed
   The NCEP Centers
Contact UsHelp
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Depression THREE


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005

TODAY'S DILEMMA IS THE APPARENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE
NORTH OF YUCATAN...AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE
TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHERE THE PRESSURES ARE LOWEST. 
AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER IS
STILL IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING...AND CONTINUE TO ISSUE
ADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THIS NORTHWARD
REPOSITIONING FORCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST...AND MOVES UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER AT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.

GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  MOREOVER...THE
MORE NORTHWARD REFORMATION HAS PUT THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL
AND SHIPS OUTPUT.

THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 22.8N  89.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 24.2N  90.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N  91.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N  91.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 30.2N  92.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/1800Z 35.0N  87.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
NHC Active Storms  -  Atlantic and E Pacific Marine  -  Storm Archives
Hurricane Awareness  -  How to Prepare  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Prediction Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 04-Jul-2005 20:55:01 GMT