June 2005
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Accurate data is essential to good decision-making. This is true for agribusiness executives, farmers and government leaders. In selling agricultural products around the world, exporters need to know about market potential as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the competition. In establishing trade policies, government officials must know the economic impact of their decisions. Accurate, timely data allows for informed choices.

In the U.S. agricultural trade arena, FAS plays a crucial role in both the collection and analysis of foreign agricultural data used to formulate marketing and negotiating objectives and strategies.

Reports prepared by FAS’ offices abroad cover changes in policies and other developments that could affect U.S. agricultural exports. FAS staff in U.S. embassies around the world assess U.S. export marketing opportunities and respond to the daily informational needs of those who develop, initiate, monitor and evaluate U.S. food and agricultural policies and programs.

FAS maintains a worldwide agricultural reporting system based on many sources including information from agricultural traders, remote sensing systems, foreign governments and agribusinesses.

Analysts at FAS headquarters in Washington, DC, prepare foreign production forecasts, assess export marketing opportunities and track changes in policies affecting U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Policy makers, program administrators, farmers, exporters and others rely on these analyses to plan activities and to make decisions.

What kind of data does FAS produce?

Shown here are FAS links to numerous sources of trade-related statistics and to in-depth data on a particular commodity, cotton in this case.

One of the most widely used sets of numbers that can impact commodity markets around the world is contained in FAS’ world market and trade reports. These reports provide the latest analysis and data on many agricultural commodities from fish and forest products to dairy, grains, livestock, poultry, cotton, oilseeds and horticultural products. They provide a picture of the current supply, demand and trade estimates for the United States and for many foreign countries.

The data is posted on FAS’ Web site in a database called PS&D Online (Production, Supply and Distribution). Anyone with Internet access can find and use the data.

Numbers in this database are the result of analysis by FAS commodity experts from data derived from posts abroad, data reporting and satellite imagery, as well as information from other government agencies.

USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board chairs interagency commodity estimates committees and relies on FAS for attaché reports and analyses of commodity developments. The committees forecast world supply and demand for major commodities.

These forecasts are in the form of a balance sheet that matches supply--beginning stocks added to the anticipated crop--with demand--how much will be consumed at home, exported or remain as ending stocks. Each month, the interagency team reviews and approves estimates and issues them as the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

The report is prepared in secured, "lock-up" conditions to assure its integrity and prevent premature release. From late at night when the analysts enter the secured area, there is absolutely no outside communication with those beyond locked doors and windows until the report is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

After "lock-up," FAS analysts put the numbers into the PS&D system and release them on the FAS home page at 3 p.m. Eastern time the next day. At the same time, FAS analysts release commodity specific world market and trade reports. These electronic reports provide commodity specific data and analysis on product, supply, demand, import and export trends.

The PS&D database allows users to view historical and current data in a series of pre-defined commodity tables or through custom queries for specific commodities, attributes and countries. Raw data can be downloaded as a single compressed file.

How is this data used?

From these reports it is possible to learn about cotton production in Tanzania, winter grain conditions in Ukraine and Russia, Brazil’s soybean crop, the world corn outlook and more. Major users of this data are agribusinesses. With this information they can plan where and when to sell. For example, grain exporters could learn that in the coming months the global wheat import demand is shifting from Europe to Asia due to abundant crops in the former and dwindling supplies in the later.

Other U.S. government agencies use this data to compile long-term economic studies. ERS (USDA’s Economic Research Service), for example, produces expert analysis on a whole range of trade issues and uses this data, in conjunction with FAS and the World Board, to produce quarterly forecasts of U.S. agricultural exports and imports.

This data is also essential for government officials in FAS, as well as the U.S. Department of State and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, who are involved in trade negotiations and monitoring agreements. Armed with the knowledge this information provides, U.S. officials can work more effectively negotiating and monitoring in multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements.

Private consulting firms also rely on this data for their own analyses databases. Colleges and universities use the numbers to produce economic studies on all facets of worldwide agricultural production and trade. This data is essential for international food aid organizations in both the public and private sector that anticipate and target assistance to areas most in need.

Besides its PS&D database, FAS compiles numerous other data sources to help government and private sector officials make sound decisions.

FAS’ Export Sales reporting program monitors U.S. agricultural exports on a daily and weekly basis, providing a constant stream of up-to-date information on 39 U.S. agricultural commodities sold abroad that account for more than 40 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports. This program serves as an early alert system on the possible impact of foreign sales on U.S. supplies and prices. The weekly U.S. Export Sales report is the most current source of U.S. exports sales data, used to analyze the overall level of export demand, determine where markets exist and assess the relative position of U.S. commodities in those markets.

Another important data tool is the U.S. trade database. It uses U.S. Bureau of the Census data to track specific commodity exports and imports. Updated monthly, this database has historical data going back to 1989.

Also based on U.S. Bureau of the Census data, FAS BICO (bulk, intermediate and consumer-oriented) reports database provides export and import information on commodities in three board categories.

The FATUS (Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States) database of ERS covers U.S. exports and imports by country, commodity and customs district.

Taken together these databases provide a comprehensive picture of market intelligence for every region in the world. This data can help exporters and government officials keep up with fluctuations in agricultural production and markets. It provides the basis for effective long-term trade strategies to expand economic opportunities for U.S. farmers, ranchers and food processors.

As an export-sensitive industry, forces of global supply and demand, and the relative competitiveness of U.S. products, will determine U.S. agriculture’s future. The data helps U.S. producers win growing market shares in regions where demand is on the rise. It allows for planning and application of government market development programs to pursue an ambitious and focused marketing strategy.

The data can help officials make sure that farm and trade policies are compatible. Using this data allows intelligent review of trade policies and programs inside and outside of government to make sure that they are cost-effective and target high-impact growth markets.

The numbers help tell the story. They are essential in developing and planning effective trade endeavors and provide the basic facts upon which a dynamic and effective trade policy is based.

The authors are public affairs specialists in the FAS Public Affairs Division. E-Mail: Harold.Kanarek@usda.gov, Lallie.Leighton@usda.gov