Proceedings

Hasan Al-Madfai

University of Glamorgan

The Dynamic Spacial Disaggregation Approach to Geo-Temporal Crime Forecasting (pdf)

Answers to the questions “how many,” “where,” and “why” in crime prediction applications represent important elements of crime prevention operations. Two novel geo-temporal crime modeling and forecasting approaches are proposed: the hierarchical profiling approach (HPA) and the dynamic spatial disaggregation approach (DSDA). HPA explicitly models the influences of societal events on crime levels within the forecasting framework. DSDA employs clustering methods to disaggregate the forecasts dynamically, enabling the influences of weekdays and exogenous variables on the spatial distribution to be modeled. Results using HPA and DSDA on multiyear daily criminal damage incidences in the City of Cardiff, UK, are presented.

Martin Andresen

Simon Fraser University

The Ambient Population and Crime Analysis (pdf)

The proliferation of GIS/science in conjunction with the availability of spatially referenced crime data has made the spatial analysis of crime advance significantly over the past decade. Most often, these analyses involve the plotting of crime points on a map or aggregating the crime points within census boundary units for analyses with census variables. In this paper, the ambient population (a 24-hour average estimate of the population present in a spatial unit) is used in conjunction with spatially referenced crime data and census variables to gain new and significant insight into the spatial dimension of crime.

David Ashby

University College London

Neighborhood Crime and Antisocial Behavior—A National Pilot in the United Kingdom (pdf)

This presentation will draw upon findings of a national study commissioned by the Audit Commission to research the use of spatial analysis and geo-demographics in England and Wales. Ten case-study areas were selected in five diverse regional partnerships. The research is founded on a U.K. policy drive toward neighborhood policing and explores the translation of geo-demographic research from business and academia into the public sector. Innovative methods of analyzing small-area demographics for policing will be presented, prior to reflection upon the lessons learned from both the national study and feedback from a tour of regional showcase events to practitioners.

Renato Assunção

Department of Statistics - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais

Space-Time Crime Clusters Identification (pdf)

We propose a new type of scan statistic to identify and evaluate the statistical significance of localized clusters in space and time, rather than just testing for the presence of clustering, such as in Knox-Mantel test of CRIMESTAT. The method can be used either retrospectively to understand crime patterns or prospectively to detect emerging clusters. The method has been implemented in free available software. We illustrate our method and the program with space-time data of different types of robberies in Belo Horizonte, a Brazilian city.

Thomas Beretich

DWI Resource Center, Inc.

Data Visualization–Based Inference of Time-Based Drunk Driver–Preferred Driving Routes (pdf)

DWIRC has used data visualization techniques and geo-coding of drunk driver crashes, drunk driver residencies, and alcohol establishment densities to create a map of “preferred” drunk driving routes in Bernalillo County, New Mexico. The ability to show both crash frequency and alcohol involved to total crash ratios, coupled with drunk driver and alcohol establishment density can assist in optimizing limited law enforcement resources through strategic placement of DWI checkpoints and increased saturation patrols in specific areas. In addition, because of the amount of data involved, the mapping of alcohol establishments, alcohol-involved accident ratios, and drunk driver residencies allows citizens an efficient method of choosing those routes, areas, and times considered more dangerous and thus avoided.

Jean-Luc Besson

Observatoire National de la Délinquance

National Criminal Statistics in France: The Geographic Way to Share the Data

France is very late in the crime mapping field. However, the geographic approach was born at home, in France (Quételet, Guerry) –and England, Yes (Mayhew) it’s true. Currently, disseminate/produce sincere criminal statistics which is state of the art. In this goal, there is not any doubt the internet map is the best answer. This presentation will show the French statistic method to analyse 107 index of crimes across the French uniform crime report: the “etat 4001” statistic. The OND has built three indicators and many categories and subcategories of indicators to understand criminal phenomena. Then we plan the internet project to spread analyse, information and data with the map interface: the Carto.Net project. Finally, this presentation will approach the future studies, notably “criminals in Paris, origins and destinations”.

Avinash Singh Bhati

Justice Policy Center, The Urban Institute

Multi-Moment Spatial Analysis of Violence (pdf)

Scholars studying violence typically model only the first moment of the dependent variable—its expected value. This is an unfortunate limitation because other moments of violence can contain important information about the phenomenon. Of particular interest is whether and to what extent there exists spatial autocorrelation among multiple moments. This presentation will demonstrate the application of a semi-parametric approach for investigating multi-moment spatial dynamics of the homicide rate. The approach offers clearer insights into these dynamics and allows researchers to test various theoretically motivated hypotheses about the process under study.

Daniel Bibel

Massachusetts State Police

Lies, Damned Lies, and Mapping NIBRS Data

The National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) provides a rich data set for analysis but without specific geographic identifiers. The addition of incident address information permits mapping of crime data, and these data can be used for tactical purposes. However, important issues of data quality and accuracy must be addressed before this data set can be productively used. This presentation will give an example of the tactical use of NIBRS data and also examine several issues concerning data quality in a shared data environment.

Frank Boateng

Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction

A GIS Approach to the Assignment of Supervision Cases in Franklin County, Ohio (pdf)

Analysis of address data for offenders under Ohio Adult Parole Authority supervision reveal substantial geographic dispersion within officer caseloads, complicating time management and potentially undermining more effective supervision strategies. Previous geographically based systems failed due to offender moves and districts focused on bad neighborhoods. This proposal divides Franklin County into four wedge-shaped districts of zip codes. Addresses are geo-coded, and analysis by supervision level shows comparable proportions of higher risk offenders across the proposed districts. Analysis on offender address changes suggests that most movements can be accommodated through small buffer zones, minimizing reassignment of cases.

Paul Bodnar

Vector Research Group, LLC

A New Approach to Geographic Profiling

Current geographic profiling models use predefined equations or algorithms to predict offender home location. These models are limited because they do not effectively incorporate important environmental conditions into the prediction algorithm. Addition of environmental conditions to the geographic profiling model results in a more accurate analysis requiring less data than needed using current methodology. In some cases, only two or three sites are needed to obtain an accurate geographic profile. This presentation covers the details of the new methodology, and specific case studies will be presented.

Clairissa Breen

Temple University

Targeted Law Enforcement in Camden, New Jersey: Diffusion of Benefits and Displacement of Crime (pdf)

In 2003, Johnson and Bowers presented a weighted displacement model for measuring the impact, spatial displacement, and diffusion of benefits resulting from crime prevention initiatives. Although useful for exploring large-scale studies, we adapt and simplify their approach to examine a small-scale saturation patrol operation in Camden, New Jersey. This paper examines target, displacement, and control area trends in violent crime, gun crime, drug crime, burglary, and vehicle crime. We will present how to use this approach to evaluate a policing operation and will make available a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to calculate the Johnson and Bowers weighted displacement quotients.

Andrew Brumwell

West Midlands Police

The Self-Containment of Crime—Area-Based Analysis of Journey-to-Crime Origin and Destination Trips and Implications for Police and Partnership Work (pdf)

Self-containment is an area-based index that measures the extent to which crime is committed locally within an area. It is simple to calculate, and when analyzed in conjunction with other police, geo-demographic, lifestyle, and socioeconomic data sets, it can prove a useful indicator to guide police and other partnership agency activity. This paper will examine how self-containment is calculated, how it varies across different communities, and how it can be used by police and other agencies at a strategic and local level.

Mapping the Cost of Crime—Area-Based Analysis of the Cost of Crime and Implications for Police and Partnership Work (pdf)

This presentation will build on recent research material on the cost of crime (e.g., Dubourg and Hamed, 2005). West Midlands Police have taken the financial costs indicated in this research and mapped it at local levels to see how placing a financial weight on crimes can help agencies assess the “harm” crime causes local neighborhoods and communities. By attempting to map “harm,” police managers can be better informed to prioritize strategic and local activity, deploy resources accordingly, and more importantly, assist in identifying areas for partnerships.

Frances Frick Burden

Pennsylvania State University

Reexamining Social Disorganization: An Analysis of Recidivism Patterns of Parolees in Georgia

Researchers from the social disorganization school have shown that neighborhoods with high levels of poverty, ethnic/racial heterogeneity, and residential mobility also suffer from high crime rates. This study examines the effects of socially disorganized neighborhoods on parole recidivism and attempts to answers two question: (1) Do the traditional measures of social disorganization predict individual parole recidivism? (2) Are similar variables and new techniques (diffusion and distance-based variables) better measures of neighborhood social disorganization than current standard variables? Preliminary findings suggest that while traditional social disorganization measures can predict recidivism, the new variables are stronger predictors.

Mike Carmichael

Winston-Salem State University Center for Community Safety

Community Safety Mapping

Since March 2005, the Transforming Communities Research Laboratory has providing basic GIS training and data acquisition to the citizens of Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and the surrounding area through a unique “storefront” GIS lab in the heart of Winston-Salem’s downtown renaissance and renewal. More than 250 people have come in for a free workshop on GIS and community research. Then they come back to the lab and begin looking at our data sets about their own communities. These sets include crime data provided by police so residents can look at and/or create their own crime maps. For an in-depth look at what is going on, they can call on the staff at the Center for Community Safety and involve students and staff to get a better understanding of what their neighborhoods look like and, more importantly, what they can do to help. This presentation will illustrate the concept of getting data into the community and present several different project examples from community participants.

Spencer Chainey

University College London, Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science

Searching for Effect: An Exploration of the Local Spatial-Temporal and Proportionate Demographic Use of Stop and Search and Its Relationship With Crime

Stop and search plays an active role in policing. Considering that stops and searches are most typically used in a non-random manner, little is known about the profile and productivity of their localized use, how they relate to patterns of crime,and whether they are proportionately applied when local demographic factors are considered. This paper presents findings from a major U.K. research study that explores whether searches are geographically and temporally concentrated, the effect that geographical and temporal targeting of search activity has on its effectiveness, and whether the targeting of searches is applied proportionately across demographic groups.

The Appliance of Science: Spiriting Crime Mapping with Crime Science

Crime science is about applying a methodical, hypothesis-driven, and evidence-led approach to crime reduction. Its focus is towards catching offenders more quickly and getting upstream of the problems presented by crime by working to prevent it in the first place. But how does crime science relate to crime mapping, and how does it fit in contemporary policing and crime reduction? This presentation will describe the basis of crime science, how it complements the new paradigms in policing and crime reduction, and how it is spiriting new forms of spatial analysis and crime mapping. The presentation will also describe the profile it offers to crime analysis and the risks that will prevent its success.

Michael Chajewski

John Jay College, CUNY

Geo-Spatial Analysis of Sex Offender Residency Restrictions in the State of New Jersey

Current trends in policymaking and legal/legislative issues are expanding on 1994 and 1996 federal legislation and are now mandating that sex offenders live 1,000 feet away from any school. This paper focuses on the roughly 1,600 registered sex offenders in the state of New Jersey and the distribution of their reported residential addresses against a mapped network of schools and the 1,000-feet restriction buffer zones. The geo-spatial analysis includes high-density metropolitan and urban area restricted living conflicts and the potential adverse effects the residency restriction policy would have on the New Jersey sex offender population.

Aaron Chalfin

The Urban Institute

The Impact of Fear of Crime on Walking Outdoors: How Gang Territories, Violence, and Disorder (pdf)

The current paper examines the environmental factors associated with fear of crime’s influence on physical activity, in this case, walking outdoors. The research tests two hypotheses: (1) violent crime, drug activity, disorder, and the presence of gangs decrease residents’ likelihood of walking outdoors due to fear, and (2) greater collective efficacy, neighborhood cohesion, and other social capital constructs act as mediating factors to reduce the impact of violent crime, drug activity, disorder, and gangs on fear that drives residents indoors.

Sarah M. Chilenski

Penn State, Prevention Research Center

Community Risks in Rural America: What Matters? (pdf)

The present study used GIS to aggregate agency-level reported crime data to the level of the school district. Analyses demonstrated that school district crime rates had appropriate construct validity (e.g., related to economic risk, mobility, and population density). Additional multilevel analyses indicated that the risk that high-crime areas present to adolescents operates on a smaller level; agency-level (i.e., municipality) crime rates were more consistent predictors of youth problem behaviors. Results indicate that district-wide prevention initiatives might be more effective if they recognize and address the differences in levels of community risk in different sections of the district geographic area.

Jacqueline Cohen

Heinz School, Carnegie Mellon University

Impact of Public Housing Demolition on Crime in Allegheny County

Partly to ameliorate the effects of concentrated disadvantage, public housing initiatives during the 1990s relocated households from older, high-density public housing communities to communities in the private housing market. The analysis documents similarities and differences between origin and destination communities. Recent historical patterns in neighborhood violence levels provide a basis for developing expected violence levels absent the housing relocation initiative. These will be compared with observed outcomes to search for discontinuities in trends associated with the timing of major housing relocations. The results will have implications for assessing the efficacy of housing relocation within current housing markets for violence prevention.

Kevin M. Curtin

University of Texas at Dallas

A Family of Models for Determining Optimal Police Deployments (pdf)

A family of optimal location models is presented that is designed to provide optimal patrol, deployment, and administrative patterns for a range of police activities. A median model is presented as a tool for special team response; a dispersion model is presented as an appropriate response for maximizing asset safety; a center problem demonstrates the worst case response situation; flow covering models are presented to identify optimal network stop locations (such as inspection stations or roadblocks for interdiction); and lastly, maximal covering models are presented as appropriate models for the equitable and efficient location of administrative and patrol areas.

Erin Dalton

Allegheny County Department of Human Services

Spatial Analysis of Returning Offenders and their Use and Proximity to Services (pdf)

The Allegheny County Reentry Mapping Initiative integrated corrections (prison, parole, and jail) data with human service client and facility data. This presentation will describe the results of this analysis with attention paid to: (1) What communities are offenders returning to? (2) Are offenders booked in the jail returning to different communities than offenders incarcerated in state prison? (3) Where are offenders in relationship to key human service supports? (4) Are there spatial differences in those who access human services from those who do not? (5) Are offenders’ addresses changing from time of incarceration to time of release?

Jason Dalton

Spatial Data Analytics Corporation

Transferable Spatial Signatures for Crime Forecasting (pdf)

The spatial signature extraction method has been extended to allow the effects of local environment to be filtered out such that offender preferences can be transferred from one locality to another. This is useful for mobile criminals, criminal trained in one area and active in another, or criminal networks that may operate in similar manners but are geographically distinct. The presentation will include a statistical derivation of the model as well as implementation and example practical applications.

Suleyman Demirci

Virginia Commonwealth University

MOBESE: Crime Prevention through Technologically Integrated Design in Istanbul, Turkey (pdf)

MOBESE project has been selected as “The Best Mobile Application” of nationwide projects in 2001-2002, Turkey. This project, then, has been improved and integrated by various technologies so as to meet the needs on security and crime measurements in Istanbul, Turkey. This study represents MOBESE as an integrated design with MIS (Management Information System) & GIS (Geographical Information Systems) including various spatial and surveillance technologies so as to enhance the communication amongst the law enforcement units and to make information flow more reliable and faster. MOBESE, ultimately, aims to enhance crime prevention processes through technologically integrated design in Istanbul, Turkey.

Tim Dolney

Kent State University

Introduction to Geographic Information Systems (GIS): Data, Functions, and Management (pdf)

This workshop provides an overview of GIS by lectures and demonstrations for various topics covering data, functions, and management. For GIS data, we will discuss data models, creation, capture, management, and quality assessment. For GIS functions, this workshop will cover mapping of GIS and related data, analysis of GIS data, and modeling of information describing geographic phenomena. Finally, for GIS management, issues in operation, development, and budgeting will be included in this workshop.

Sebnem Duzgun

Middle East Technical University

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Theft Incidents in Cankaya and Bahcelievler Police Districts, Ankara (pdf)

Space-time clustering of theft incidents in Cankaya and Bahcelievler Police Districts of Ankara are analyzed based on exploratory spatial data analysis methods and Knox index. Then detected space-time clusters are related to land use properties of the region with the use of GIS techniques, and the time interval for the data is months. The monthly change in the pattern of the theft incidents is explored by a series of two- and three-dimensional kernel estimates. It is detected that the theft incident clusters move from the western part of the study region to the eastern part in the first half of the investigation period.

Safa F. Egilmez

Santa Monica Police Department

Exploratory Analysis of Homeless-Related Crimes and Social Service System in Santa Monica, California

GIS is used to analyze the spatial characteristics and patterns associated with homeless-related crimes and the existing and planned location of homeless social programs. Use of GIS enables an exploratory data analysis that allows for understanding the extent of the crimes committed by/on the homeless and gives decisionmakers a chance to situate future social programs where they are needed. This research provides a starting point to understanding the importance of spatial planning of social services in an urban area with a high concentration of homeless persons.

Gregory Elmes

West Virginia University

“I Wasn’t There”: Space-Time Prisms for Criminal Investigation

Time-geography technique models of potential accessibility are applied to the movements of possible offenders. In combination with route-finding and service area algorithms, a coded transportation network calculates the area potentially accessible to an individual, which is displayed in two and three dimensions. Predicted behavior or past behavior is modeled based on suspect’s known positions at given times and places. Predicted time-space paths are intersected with locations of known incidents to provide information relating to the inclusion or exclusion of suspects from consideration. Examples are presented from Morgantown, West Virginia.

Donald Faggiani

University of Massachusetts Lowell

A Spatial and Contextual Effects Analysis of the Causes and Correlates of Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted in the Line of Duty

Using an opportunity theory and routine activities theoretical approach, this research examines the variations in the spatial dynamics of assaults and killings of law enforcement (LEOKA) incidents across block groups within cities and the role of the ecological and situational factors in accounting for variations in LEOKA incidents. Incorporating recent changes to the structure of NIBRS introduced by the FBI in 2003, the research uses address-specific NIBRS data for the years 2003–2005 for nine cities in Massachusetts supplemented with U.S. Bureau of the Census data for the year 2000.

Samuel Garman

Heinz School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University

Automatic Detection of Crime Frequency Pattern Changes

As the volume of crime data collected multiplies, it is increasingly important to automate the identification of interesting phenomena in the data. We compare several methods’ abilities to automatically detect changes in average level of crime or one-time outliers in the data by crime type at the car beat level of analysis. The judgments of three crime analysts on the locations of these pattern changes in crime frequency–time series are used to train and evaluate the methods. We find that monitoring percent change in crime frequency, a common practice, substantially underperforms methods that incorporate a univariate extrapolative forecast.

Andy Gill

Transport for London

Developing Aoristic Network Analysis on London’s Transport System (pdf)

The complexity of London’s transport network and the way passengers use it both present complex challenges in analyzing non-static crime events to improve policing and ensure passenger safety. Aoristic network analysis of London’s transport network is being developed as a new tool to identify “hot sections” of the network that are not spatially definable using traditional analytical techniques. A pilot study of theft on the Underground is being undertaken prior to extending to other transport modes (bus, overground trains, and trams). This presentation will explain the challenge, approach, successes, and limitations to aoristic network analysis.

Heather Glenn

Edmonton Police Service

Prostitution, Displacement, and Human Geography: The Affects of Police Actions (pdf)

In response to public pressure concerning prostitution, the Edmonton Police Service launched “Operation 118 Ave.” The analysis to be presented examined the impact this operation had on the location of prostitution activity. It is theorized that conventional police initiatives will do very little to influence the spatial distribution of prostitution. Access to clientèle and the sex trade works perception of a safe environment plays a significant role in the location of a “stroll.” Despite police activities, the spatial distribution of prostitution is not affected. Zones of tolerance could provide one solution to the prostitution problem in Edmonton.

Elizabeth Groff

Institute for Law and Justice

Simulating Street Robbery to Inform Policy and Prevention (pdf)

Research examining the crime event in its context has been handicapped by a lack of micro-level data that can capture the dynamic interactions of individuals and the context in which they occur. This research creates a simulation model of street robberies that is based on extant theory and empirical research. The model is used to explore the impact of patrol allocation and the presence of place managers on the spatio-temporal distribution of street robberies. Research conducted using simulation offers a cost-effective supplement to field research because it allows the identification of the most promising strategies for additional funding.

Tony Grubesic

Department of Geography, Indiana University

Geographic Exclusion: Spatial Analysis for Evaluating the Implications of Megan’s Law

In Ohio, like many other states, Megan’s Law prohibits a sex offender from establishing or occupying a residence that is within 1,000 feet of any school-related properties. Critics believe that the geographic constraints placed on registered sex offenders by Megan’s Law have the potential to eliminate most, if not all, feasible residential housing options. The purpose of this paper is to outline a methodological framework for evaluating the impact of Megan’s Law and its potential implications for geographic exclusion. A case study of Hamilton County, Ohio, is conducted, and empirical results are presented.

Karen L. Hayslett-McCall

University of Texas at Dallas

Simulating the Journey to Residential Burglary

Our research presents an innovative, predictive approach to the study of the journey to residential burglary. We propose a simulation model in conjunction with both routine activity and social disorganization theories. We will model the offender and the residential location targeted for burglary as agents in a cellular automaton model. The model will use the reports database from the Dallas Police Department to identify attributes of both the offender and residential location agents. This will be supplemented by neighborhood information, location, and distance information derived through GIS techniques to model the journey to crimes of residential burglary.

Cedrick G. Heraux

University of Michigan - NACJD

The Neighborhood Context of Police Use of Force Behavior (pdf)

The proposed research seeks to examine the effects of neighborhood context on the use of force using observational and survey data collected in six different jurisdictions. By using neighborhood-level variables and available spatial analyses, this research is better able to examine the effects of particular places on police behavior in addition to the variables traditionally explored. This focus on the importance of context provides a new avenue for research on this topic and is viewed as a basis for future studies of police behavior.

NACJD’s Role in Mapping and the Data Resources Program (pdf)

This presentation will describe the GIS and related data resources at the National Archive of Criminal Justice Data (NACJD). The presentation will also focus on NACJD’s development of a geospatial data depository of crime data, discuss data security and confidentiality issues faced in distributing these data, and describe GIS meta-data standards and formats established to deliver information to researchers and policy makes.

Use of GIS for Identifying Problematic Areas or Officers (pdf)

This research uses GIS to examine and display incident and arrest data to identify areas of a city where police are disproportionately “disrespected.” Specifically, the crimes of fleeing and eluding police, resisting a lawful arrest, and obstructing an officer will be examined separately then jointly to demonstrate how GIS can assist police managers in identifying problematic areas or officers. This information can in turn be used to revise policies or practices to lessen underlying problems citizens might have with the police that lead them to disobey police authority.

Chris Herrmann

John Jay College of Criminal Justice

Perfecting the Denominator: Mapping Population Distribution in the Urban Environment

This paper discusses the importance of determining an accurate depiction of total population and specific sub-population distribution for urban areas in order to develop an improved "denominator," allowing for more correct rates in GIS analyses involving spatial modeling and crime analysis. Rather than using data aggregated by arbitrary administrative boundaries such as census tracts, we use dasymetric mapping, an areal interpolation method using ancillary information to delineate areas of homogeneous values. We review previous dasymetric mapping techniques (which often use remotely-sensed land cover data) and contrast them with our technique, a Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), which is particularly suitable for urban areas. The CEDS method uses specific cadastral data, land use filters, modeling by expert system routines, and validation against various census enumeration units and other data.

Douglas Hicks

Minneapolis Police Department

Spatial Aspects of Probationer Contacts with Police in Minneapolis (pdf)

The MPD has built an Automated Email Alert System that notifies individual probation officers daily when parolees on their caseload have contact with the MPD. This system ensures timely notice to probation officers throughout Minnesota of the involvement of their probationers in criminal events in Minneapolis, regardless of the probationer’s role in the event. A year of past contacts was mapped to explore and identify concentrated areas of probationer contact. Spider map analysis was used to explore the geographic distance between parolee residence and concentrated contact areas. The implications for police patrol and probation services are discussed.

Tammy Holt

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP)

OJJDP SMART System (pdf)

The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) has been developing the capacity to visualize available resources that address multiple risk and protective factors which may be affiliated with juvenile delinquency and its prevention. Using geospatial data, OJJDP has been successful in mapping many of its resources, including grants, promising programs, as well as other Federal agency resource data with regard to various socioeconomic, crime, and other risk factor data, which may be indicative of delinquency. Visualizing and reporting changes in crime patterns and socioeconomic factors over time in areas with government-funded programs may reveal a program’s effectiveness/ineffectiveness.

Derek Johnson

Dorset Police

The “Near Repeat” Phenomena of Dwelling Burglary Crime in Bournemouth, England (pdf)

Following published research on the communicability of dwelling burglary crime spatial analysis identified the “near repeat” phenomena in Bournemouth and was used to support an intervention strategy aimed at reducing crime. Eventually, the scheme was evaluated using time-series analysis and CrimeStat III to visualize the spatial change in dwelling burglary crime in the intervention localities. Geo-demographics were used to find further residential areas into which the intervention could be expanded. Further work now examines how this could be related to other crime types such as auto crime.

Christy Khalifa

Portland Police Bureau

Portland Police Bureau Freeway Mapping Project (pdf)

The Portland Police Bureau’s Freeway Mapping Project involved agency-wide collaboration in accurately mapping offenses on Portland’s freeways. Prior to the project, these incidents were mapped to one of six points, one for each of Portland’s six major freeways. This method rendered these data useless for crime analysis and mapping purposes and for policy decisionmaking, such as in which neighborhood, precinct, and/or district to place these incidents. This presentation will describe the agency-wide effort undertaken to implement this project and mapping techniques used to deliver a data set to be incorporated into the Portland Police Data System, the bureau’s mainframe database.

KiDeuk Kim

New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services

Does Neighborhood Matter in Police Processing of Calls for Service?

Calls for service (CFS) data have frequently been analyzed to study the quality of life and crime. Understanding measurement errors involved in CFS data is therefore of great significance. Based on CFS and crime incident data from a mid-size US city, this research attempts to explore a potential bias in analyzing CFS data. Specifically, the research asks whether, and the extent to which, neighborhood characteristics account for call inaccuracy. Results from spatial regression models and policy implications will be discussed. Preliminary findings suggest that calls from a neighborhood characterized by low-income levels and concentration of elderly residents tend to exaggerate the nature of events.

Yushim Kim

John Glenn School of Public Affairs, The Ohio State University

Dynamic Spatial Models of Fraudulent Behavior: GIS and Agent-Based Models (ABM) (pdf)

Our purpose is to present frameworks that can link GIS and ABM as a means for advanced spatial analysis. We apply the framework to fraudulent behavior. GIS is used for visualizing spatial patterns that emerge from empirical data, whereas ABM is developed to replicate such patterns by modeling the underlying processes. This combination of tools allows the testing and visual display of the effect of policy options. We will discuss how this approach can enhance current uses of GIS, especially for decisionmaking in public agencies.

Joyce Knowlton

Minnesota Department of Corrections

Cartographic and Statistical Analyses of the Effects of Double-Bunking Close-Custody Offenders (pdf)

In 2004, the Minnesota Department of Corrections experienced the largest 1-year increase in offenders when compared to all other states, resulting in double-bunking a close-custody correctional facility. Noticeable increases in the number of rule violations occurred. Through cartographic and statistical analyses, several variables were examined, including outdoor air temperature, spatial density, age, race, gang membership, governing sentence, and years until release. Using GIS technology, these variables were mapped throughout the correctional facility, assisting in the analysis and determination of variable correlations. Results of this research project provide an explanation for rising rule violations and new offender management possibilities.

Mike Kollmeyer

City of Wichita

Using Hot Spots: Development of a Web-Based Interactive Tool for Command Staff Meetings at the City of Wichita (pdf)

In the summer of 2005, the Wichita Police Department constructed a multifaceted briefing room for use with press briefing, presentations, and command staff meetings. For command staff, the Department wanted a way to interactively analyze increases and decreases in crime activity in a map environment. The City of Wichita GIS was used for development of the GeoCrime Command Staff Application, an interactive, web-based hot-spot application.

Apollo Kowalyk

Edmonton Police Service

Beware the Iron Grip of CAD: A Patrol Sergeant’s Perspective on the Utility of Crime Mapping in Frontline Policing

Although academic discussions about crime mapping are becoming increasingly specialized, its practical application within frontline policing remains unclear. This presentation seeks to examine how the patrol function’s symbiotic relationship with computer-aided design (CAD) acts as an impediment to the full application of crime mapping in frontline policing. A variety of other implementation issues detrimental to the long-term success of crime mapping initiatives in the patrol environment will be examined, including the unreliable nature of CAD data, a pervasive case file mentality that defines a patrol officer’s cognitive map, and how the fractured nature of patrol time itself acts as a disincentive, breeding indifference toward analytical work.

Nancy La Vigne

Justice Policy Center, The Urban Institute

Residential Mobility Among Returning Prisoners: Implications for Policy and Practice

State and local prisoner reentry partnerships are increasingly relying upon maps depicting concentrations of released prisoners to drive policy and practice on the ground. However, these maps typically rely on the addresses inmates provide to the Department of Corrections upon release from prison, raising questions about whether the residential mobility of released prisoners might render such maps inaccurate. This presentation will draw from interviews with 379 prisoners released from Texas correctional institutions, for which number of residences and exact address locations were collected twice over the course of a year after release. The presentation will discuss how often released prisoners move, why they do so, and how mobility affects research findings and corrections practices.

Brian A. Lawton

Sam Houston State University

Assessing the Impact of Hurricane Katrina on Space-Time Clusters of Crime Patterns in Houston (pdf)

Following the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina, more than 250,000 New Orleans residents were relocated to the Houston-Galveston area. Although there was an initial outpouring of sympathy and support for these evacuees, it has faded over time and most recently resulted in evacuees being blamed for a citywide increase in the violent crime rate. These analyses examine patterns of crime prior to and following the Katrina disaster. Particular focus is placed on examining geographic patterns of both violent and drug crime and identifying trends that might be attributed to the displacement of the population caused by the disaster.

Michael Leitner

Louisiana State University

The Impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on Public Safety in Louisiana: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Reported Crimes (pdf)

This research analyzes the impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on crime rates in Louisiana and selected urban areas outside of Louisiana. Reported crime data have been collected before, during, and after both hurricanes hit the U.S. Gulf Coas, to assess spatial and temporal changes in the crime rates. Methods include exploratory spatial and temporal data analysis, including co-maps; detection and mapping of crime hot spots and their changes over time; and spatial regression models to analyze the relationships (and their changes) between crime and other demographic and socioeconomic data believed to be associated with crime.

Assessment and Evaluation of Individually Calibrated Journey-to-Crime Geographic Profiling Models (pdf)

Criminal geographic profiling is a decision support tool used by law enforcement to make estimates about the likely location of a serial offender’s “haven,” which, in most cases, is the offender’s residence. Modern geographic profiling models include Dragnet©, RigelTM Criminal Geographic Targeting, Predator®, and the CrimeStat III journey-to-crime and crime travel demand modeling routines.

Ned Levine

Ned Levine & Associates

Bayesian Journey-to-Crime Modeling (pdf)

A Bayesian approach to journey-to-crime modeling is examined. An estimate of the likely origin of crimes committed by a serial offender can be created using the empirical Bayes (EB) method by adding estimates based on a trip distribution matrix and a travel function calibrated from a known sample (journey-to-crime method). An empirical test of 50 serial offenders from Baltimore County demonstrated that the combined estimate is more accurate than either the journey-to-crime method or trip distribution method by themselves. The study has implications for combining information from multiple sources in a systematic way.

Crime Travel Demand modeling(pdf)

This workshop presents an overview of crime travel demand modeling, an application of transportation modeling to crime. The crime travel demand model is usually applied to a metropolitan region, though it can be used for other study areas. Attendees will learn about the steps involved and how modeling can be used for policy and intervention analysis. The modeling steps involve a data inventory, trip generation, trip distribution, mode split, and network assignment. Examples will be shown of using a crime travel demand model to study robbery patterns in a metropolitan area and to explore policy interventions for reducing DUI/DWI crashes.

Yongmei Lu

Texas State University – San Marcos

Illegal Drug Possessions in Urban Built-Up Areas (pdf)

This presentation will report on a study of the spatial patterns of illegal drug possessions in the city of Austin, Texas. GIS is used to not only map the arrest locations of illegal drug possessions but also to spatially relate the offense locations to those of property crimes and to land use and socioeconomic characteristics. Furthermore, exploratory spatial analyses are conducted to evaluate the possible “attractiveness” that different types of urban facilities and socioeconomic activities might have for illegal drug possessions. The goal of this research is to promote further explanatory studies of the location factors of illegal drug possession.

Elizabeth Mack

Department of Geography, Indiana University

Spatio-Temporal Methods for Identifying Crime Hot Spots: Approaches, Problems, and Prospects

Innovations in crime mapping and hot-spot detection have focused on the integration of spatial statistical techniques and GIS to improve the identification of elevated crime densities in urban spaces. Although such innovations assist in the development of proactive policing strategies, these hot-spotting techniques fail to address the nature of hot-spots in both space and time. This paper seeks to bridge this methodological gap by exploring the application of spatio-temporal methods for identifying and analyzing crime hot spots. Empirical results suggest spatio-temporal analysis is a promising step in the search for more accurate methods to identify crime hot spots.

David Martin

Wayne State University

Mapping Out Prisoner Reentry in Wayne County, Michigan: A Gap Analysis Study

In March 2006, the Hudson-Webber Foundation provided a grant to Wayne State University to conduct a gap analysis of prisoner reentry in Wayne County. Results from the gap analysis provided information on (a) the geographic concentration of parolees and probationers in Wayne County and the city of Detroit, (b) the distribution and overall capacities of key social and human service providers, and (c) opportunities for enhanced coordination of community development initiatives and resources that might positively impact prisoner reentry and overall community safety. The results of the study are currently being used to guide the ongoing development of the Michigan Prisoner Reentry Initiative in Wayne County.

David C. May

Eastern Kentucky University

A Spatial Analysis of Predictors of the Relative Severity of Prison (pdf)

Previous research has revealed gender and racial differences in offender preferences for prison compared to alternative sanctions and in the severity ranking of criminal sanctions among offenders. Nevertheless, both the opinion of the general public and any spatial consideration of public opinion regarding perceptions of severity of prison have often been ignored. In this study, the literature is extended by a spatial examination of demographic and structural predictors of Kentucky residents’ perceptions regarding the amount of alternative sanctions that they would serve to avoid 1 year of imprisonment.

Eric McCord

Temple University

Measuring Crime Clusters Around Criminogenic Places: An Enhanced Buffer Approach (pdf)

Research shows that crime clusters around certain types of land uses, including bars, schools, and transportation stops. The accurate measurement of this phenomenon is central to crime theory and reduction efforts. We present an enhanced clustering approach that is more sensitive to the proximity of crime events and land use locations than traditional buffers. It also allows for a more realistic base rate when comparing numerous study areas and allowing the use of statistical methods. We demonstrate both technique and statistical approach with a case study of drug arrest clusters around pawn shops in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

James W. Meeker

University of California Irvine

Using GIS to Study Legal Needs Issues: An Analysis of the LSC OIG Southern California Mapping Project

We evaluated an innovative effort by the Office of the Inspector General (OIG) of the Legal Services Corporation (LSC) to explore the utility of using GIS to analyze the distribution of services for five legal service providers in Southern California. This project is an extension of an earlier effort to employ this technology for the legal service providers in Georgia. The application of GIS to analyze the delivery of legal services to the poor is a fairly new application. Many in the legal services community are unaware of both the strengths and weaknesses of this analytical approach, and one of the major purposes of this project is to increase awareness.

Jeremy Mennis

Temple University

Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Juvenile Delinquency and Recidivism (pdf)

This research investigates spatial patterns of juvenile delinquency and recidivism in Philadelphia and identifies relevant spatial variation in the factors that might influence delinquency and recidivism. The application of global and local autocorrelation statistics suggests that the spatially explicit causes of recidivism differ from those of delinquency and that different causal factors might be operating in different regions. Results from a neural network-based sensitivity analysis show that the most relevant attributes for predicting recidivism differ among the different regions of Philadelphia.

The goal of the proposed project is to develop, apply, and evaluate improved techniques to investigate the simultaneous effects of neighborhood and program forces in preventing juvenile recidivism. The analysis of neighborhood effects in this context introduces a number of challenges, including issues of data quality, data integration, and the use of appropriate statistical techniques. We address these challenges by using GIS and spatial data mining in an analysis of adjudicated juvenile delinquents assigned to court-ordered programs by the Family Court of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The proposed study, which includes a vast methodological departure from current practices, can greatly improve the chances of learning more about the dynamics of juvenile recidivism and lead to more effective prevention policies and programs.

Jacqueline Warren Mills

Louisiana State University

The Clearinghouse Concept: Applications of Spatial Data for Law Enforcement and Public Safety

In a disaster event wherein mass evacuation has occurred, an essential question to the recovery process is “where have people gone?” To reallocate resources to serve the redistributed population, this question must be answered to a suitable scale. As a solution to integrating the myriad post-event geo-spatial data sets and answering this and other essential questions, the LSU GIS Clearinghouse Cooperative (LGCC) was formed through collaboration between the Federal Emergency Management Agency and LSU. This paper outlines the formation of LGCC, its utility in dealing with post-disaster geo-spatial data, and specifically its application for post-event law enforcement and public safety concerns.

Dennis Mondoro

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP)

OJJDP SMART System (pdf)

OJJDP has been developing the capacity to visualize available resources that address multiple risk and protective factors that could be affiliated with juvenile delinquency and its prevention. Using geo-spatial data, OJJDP has been successful in mapping many of its resources, including grants, promising programs, and other Federal agency resource data, with regard to various socioeconomic, crime, and other risk factor data, which could be indicative of delinquency. Visualizing and reporting changes in crime patterns and socioeconomic factors over time in areas with government-funded programs might reveal a program’s effectiveness/ineffectiveness.

John Derek Morgan

Florida State University

Visualizing Cases of Internet Fraud with Collaborative Crime Mapping (pdf)

Internet fraud almost always occurs across jurisdictional boundaries that are not easily apparent to victims or institutions effected by those crimes. Knowledge at the local and jurisdiction levels is specific to local actors (i.e., police officers and citizens). This research proposes that a collaborative GIS using crime mapping driven by location-specific intelligence can be effectively used to solve Internet crime cases. Existing efforts toward collaborative crime mapping will be considered. Different implementation issues to such a proposed system will also be considered.

Thomas R. Mueller

California University of Pennsylvania (Cal U)

The Cal U Crime Mapping Center (CMC): Issues with Rural Data and Third-Party Crime Mapping

Crime mapping has been used by police departments throughout the country to understand crime patterns and developing strategies to combat crime. However some rural and small town police departments do not have the resources to implement such a plan. The Cal U CMC was created to offer these services to small municipalities in the region. At the CMC, students input and analyze data and then create weekly and monthly crime mapping reports. This presentation will examine the processes, successes, problems, and movement to regionalism at the CMC.

Mangai Natarajan

John Jay College of Criminal Justice, City University of New York

Crime Specific Analysis of Homicide Hot Spots (pdf)

Using 2005 New York City homicide data (n = 519), this paper, which is informed by a rational choice perspective, demonstrates the importance of breaking down homicides into different types before undertaking hot-spot mapping. It also underscores the need for detailed, systematic field observations to complement mapping if these hot spots are to be understood. Further, it argues that the combination of mapping and field observations assists in identifying immediate and practical community crime prevention measures. Finally, it discusses the importance of class projects such as this in helping crime mapping students apply crime theories to prevention practice.

Environmental Criminology, Problem Oriented Policing (pdf)

Crime analysts are increasingly called upon to use their crime mapping and GIS skills to support problem-oriented policing projects. But many new analysts lack knowledge of environmental criminology that would help them to make their full contribution. These concepts include the problem analysis triangle, the journey to crime, repeat victimization, risky facilities, crime facilitators, displacement, and diffusion of benefits. The workshop will show how mapping can use these concepts to support problem-oriented policing projects. It will make use of Crime Analysis for Problem Solvers, a manual published by the COPS Office during the summer of 2005.

Andrew Newton

Applied Criminology Centre (ACC), University of Huddersfield

Measuring "Alcohol-related" Crime and Disorder: Examining the Impact of Extended Licensing Hours

The recent introduction of extended licensing hours in England occurred amid increasing concerns about rising levels of violence and disorder in urban centers, particularly during the late evening/night. This paper describes the difficulties inherent in measuring “alcohol-related” crime and disorder and in evaluating a county-wide change in policy (as it is difficult to generate a control area). This research adopts a multilevel analysis approach to examine changes at the micro, meso, and macro levels and combines quantitative crime analysis with qualitative fieldwork (participant observation and semi-structured interviews) to assess the impact of the new extended hours.

Matt Nobles

University of Florida

The Spatial Distribution of Arrests for Criminal Domestic Violence in Lexington County, South Carolina (pdf)

An NIJ-sponsored outcome evaluation of the Lexington County Criminal Domestic Violence Court indicated that arrests for domestic violence in Lexington County significantly increased after the inception of the specialized court in November 1999. The purpose of the current research is to examine whether spatial patterns of domestic violence changed after the court was developed and to examine community-level characteristics within Lexington County in areas that experienced a change in the spatial distribution of domestic violence. A variety of spatial analysis techniques, including spatial data visualization, measures of local spatial autocorrelation, and spatial regression, were used to explore these objectives.

Mike O'Leary

Towson University

New Mathematical Techniques for Geographic Profiling

The main question in geographic profiling is: Given a series of linked crimes committed by the same offender, can we make predictions about the anchor point of the offender? The anchor point can be a place of residence, a place of work, or some other commonly visited location. Existing mathematical methods to calculate potential anchor points fall into two general classes—centrographic measures and probability distance strategies. These are the mathematical methods used in existing geographic profiling software. In our research, we developed new mathematical techniques to estimate the search area for the anchor point. These new methods allow for the explicit incorporation of a range of geographical features, like jurisdictional boundaries. Further, the underlying assumptions for these mathematical models are made explicit in terms of assumptions on offender behavior.

Miriam Olivares

Texas A&M University

Measure of Risk Across Communities Due to Sex Crimes

This paper explores how GIS can be used in solving issues related to sex offenders. Spatial analysis of sex crime and tracking of registered sex offenders (RSOs) is shifting from simple geographical location analysis to the creation of risk management and measurement models. The study presents the application of the critical risk zones model across communities and discusses the applications for law enforcement practices and policymaking regarding sex crime. This research established a standardized measurement of risk regarding RSOs that will permit law enforcement agencies to assess reduction of crime and existing risk.

Joseph E. Pascarella

New York Police Department

The Relationship between Distance Traveled By Offenders and Level of Violence in Shooting Incidents in New York City

Shooting Incidents (N=1,666) that occurred in New York City during 2004 and 2005 were analyzed to determine if there was an association between distance traveled and level of violence to test core concepts of the Routine Activity Approach (Cohen & Felson,1979) using a Journey to Crime (JTC) methodology. A non-linear regression analysis was constructed to determine the log likelihood of the incident become fatal the further the offender traveled. There was an increase in level of violence the further the offender traveled suggesting that distance traveled is a motivating factor in raising the level of violence in a shooting incident.

Derek J. Paulsen

Eastern Kentucky University

Crime Series Analysis Software: A New Tool for Crime Analysts

Over the last few years, there has been increasing interest in the use of expert systems in crime series investigations, with particular focus on geographic profiling systems. However, existing geographic profiling systems have come under scrutiny because of both their limitations and research into their accuracy. Specifically, traditional geographic profiling systems are incapable of profiling commuter offenders, a significant portion of all offenders, and traditional systems’ overall accuracy has been found to be no more accurate than simple centrographic methods. Because of this, research is beginning to look to alternative ways to analyze crime series that go beyond traditional geographic profiling systems. In particular, this research reports on a new method of analyzing crime series that assists in determining commuters from marauders and then provides the optimal tool for analyzing the crime series. In addition to research results, discussion will include training and future issues in crime series analysis.

Using Spatial Demographics to Improve Geographic Profiling

One of the most talked about new technologies in the field of crime analysis is geographic profiling, an investigative methodology that uses the locations of a connected series of crimes to determine the most probable offender anchor point. Although geographic profiling software has been around since the early 1990s, the science of geographic profiling has languished considerably. Much of the research on geographic profiling over the last 15 years has focused on developing new software platforms and providing case study analysis rather than on critically evaluating issues of effectiveness and accuracy. This lack of research has created a void in which many questions about geographic profiling and serial offending still exist. One such question is to what degree can the analysis of opportunity structure help focus geographic profiling results? In particular, do offenders commit crimes in neighborhoods that have spatial characteristics similar to their own residential neighborhoods, and if so, can this knowledge improve profiling results? The focus of this research is on developing simple spatial diagnostics that can be used to improve overall profile accuracy by helping to narrow sometimes large top-profile areas. In addition to research results, this presentation will include a discussion of the implications of these findings for practitioners of geographic profiling.

Rebecca Paynich

Curry College

Developing Standards and Curriculum for GIS in Law Enforcement (pdf)

This study analyzes and discusses data collected from police agencies currently employing GIS and crime mapping and from educators who currently offer crime mapping courses in their curriculum across the country. Currently, there are no standards that guide curriculum development in this area. In this study, law enforcement and educators collaborate to aid in crime mapping curriculum development. Findings regarding what works and what doesn’t work in teaching crime mapping to police officers; agency-identified needs provide a useful framework for developing GIS curriculum standards.

Erika Poulsen

Port Authority of New York and New Jersey

Methodology for Aggregating Robbery Data

There are two common methods by which robbery incidents are aggregated to units of analysis, such as census block groups, calculating rates, or using counts. Calculating robbery rates often poses a problem where a correctly measured denominator requires having the population figure that represents pedestrian traffic in an area, and these data do not exist. A proposed solution is to create a density surface map of the point data sets, overlay the block group polygons, remove the areas in the study areas where the variables could not occur, and capture the mean value of the results of the robbery density surface.

Jerry H. Ratcliffe

Temple University

Predicting Shootings from Near-Repeat Patterns: A Philadelphia Example

Property crime research has identified the near repeat phenomenon, where the risk of repeat victimization is transmitted from one location to nearby places for a limited amount of time. This presentation explores the potential for near repeat patterns to exist in a violent crime type: shootings. Using tools currently under development to quantify the spatio-temporal patterns of near repeats, a study in Philadelphia finds elevated patterns of shootings within a short time and distance of previous incidents. This space/time pattern can be quantified and mapped, and provides strong predictive intelligence on which to form a shooting prevention policy.

George Rengert

Temple University

Problems Associated With Bounding Spatial Data (pdf)

Units of analysis are commonly differentiated between spaces and places. Places are generally depicted as points in space while spaces have an aerial extent. There are a variety of problems and concerns that occur when point patterns of place data are aggregated into space data. These problems and concerns are classified into problems associated with boundaries created for other than research purposes, edge problems associated with spatially truncated data, modifiable aerial unit problem associated with dispersion metrics changing as aerial boundaries change, and the dispersion of data and the appropriate statistical model to use as aerial units change in size. Solutions to these problems are addressed.

Facility Cop: Data Management for Correctional Institutions

The location in time and space of serious incidents in our nation's correctional facilities is a serious concern. Many correctional facilities record this data in paper files that are cumbersome and difficult to retrieve. These paper files also are difficult to aggregate by time, space, or by individual to determine when, where, and who are the particular problems in a correctional institution. With funding from the National Institution of Justice, the authors developed a computer program to track incidents within correctional facilities. This presentation highlights the capabilities of this program that is available free of charge from the authors.

Robert Renner

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)

USPS Vacancy Data: A New Data Set for Measuring Abandonment and Blight (pdf)

There is research that suggests abandoned or blighted properties might serve as a magnet for crime. Although most policymakers, scholars, and neighborhood residents agree that abandoned and blighted properties are problematic, there is little consensus on how to accurately define and count these properties. This presentation suggests a novel definition for abandoned or blighted property and introduces new data set that uses U.S. Postal Service administrative data on vacant addresses. HUD’s Office of Policy Development and Research is making this data available to researchers via Internet download.

Christine Rine

State University of New York at Buffalo

Neighborhood Mismatch: Proximal Access to Mental Health Services for Youth (pdf)

This paper is an examination of proximal access to mental health services for youth, emphasizing a neighborhood research approach using census data and spatial analysis techniques. The purpose is to elucidate physical barriers facing youth in accessing needed mental health services. Findings of this research are intended to inform the importance of need-based resource placement. Lastly, the use of GIS and related spatial analysis techniques are currently underused in the field of social work, it is hoped that the usefulness of this approach and the interdisciplinary activities of both practitioners and researchers will realize success for underserved populations.

Sunghoon Roh

Appalachian State University

A Geographic Approach to Racial Profiling: Does the Location Explain Racial Disparity in Traffic Stops? (pdf)

In this study, the author analyzed the effects of spatial characteristics in patrolling areas upon racial disparity in the frequency of traffic stops and subsequent police treatments. Through LISA cluster map analysis and spatial regression analysis, it was found that the likelihood of being stopped and of being subjected to unfavorable police treatment (e.g., arrest, search, and felony charge) was greater in beats with more blacks or Hispanics and/or more deployed police force.

Linda M. Rosato-Barone

City of Pittsburgh, Bureau of Police

MAPSTATS (pdf)

The lack of specific data regarding crime within a certain area hampers our officers’ ability to do proactive police work. Although senior supervisors might have a handle on the crimes trends occurring within their area, unless it is filtered down to the rank and file, it is of little assistance in reducing crime with proactive techniques. Allowing frontline supervisors and officers access to current information in a timely manner gives them the ability to strategically map out a plan on a daily basis to combat any crime trends that might be developing. MAPSTATS is just that tool, an intranet-based system for analyzing aggregated incident reports geographically.

Steve Rose

Birmingham Community Safety Partnership

Composite Index of Community Safety—Identifying Priority Neighborhoods Using Multiagency Data Sets to Create a Single Index of Community Safety Mapped for Small Areas) (pdf)

Birmingham Community Safety Partnership used a composite index of multiagency community safety–related spatial information to assess priority places. The paper demonstrates how the Partnership Information and Intelligence Team was able to combine information from a variety of partner agencies to identify pinch points for multiagency delivery across the city. The output was a comprehensive and innovative spatial strategic assessment of six priority themes that has shaped the ongoing strategy of the key providers of community safety. The outcomes include a significant change in delivery policy with a move to neighborhood management not only for community safety but also across all strategic partnership themes, including education, economy, and health.

Mapping Reassurance Using Survey Data (pdf)

Birmingham Community Safety Partnership, through its Community Safety Mapping Online System, has created an innovative approach to mapping survey data that allows users to look at reassurance and environmental hotspots in conjunction with incident-based community safety data. The paper will share the cutting-edge methodology used and provide practical examples of the use of the results in assisting strategic policy formulation and targeted response.

D. Kim Rossmo

Texas State University - San Marcos

The Error in Error Distance: Some Conceptual and Analytic Problems in Crime Mapping

Crime maps are visual displays of quantitative information. Edward Tufte advises us of the importance of following fundamental principles of analytic design and avoiding corrupt techniques in evidence presentation. Implications of his advice for the field of crime mapping are discussed in this presentation, focusing on two examples: (1) the continued use of error distance, despite its analytical unsuitability, in the measurement of geographic profiling algorithm performance; and (2) the introduction of distortion and error in the condensation and packaging of crime analysis information for police practitioners, public safety executives, the public, and the media.

Illegal Border Crossings by American Citizens

This study examines the geographic and temporal patterns of American citizens apprehended while illegally crossing a U.S. land border. Americans rank seventh in terms of citizenship for all illegal entrants and second in terms of citizenship for criminal disposition entries (42% of American citizen apprehensions were criminal). An operationally valuable perspective on border security can be gained by analyzing American citizenship cases. Individual characteristics for this group and the geography of their entry points are examined and contrasted against similar findings for all illegal entrants.

Greg Russell

Mitretek Systems

Using GIS to Compare Regional Law Enforcement Information Sharing Systems (pdf)

This presentation will cover the Comprehensive Regional Information Sharing Project application. This application uses ArcIMS as an integral part of the interface for selecting and presenting data about six regional information sharing systems and the participating police agencies. The presentation will cover how the application was developed, the current application, and plans for further development. The presentation will conclude with a demonstration of the CRISP mapping tool.

Josée Savoie

Canadian Centre For Justice Statistics, Statistics Canada

Neighborhood Characteristics and Crime Distribution (pdf)

This presentation will begin with an overview of the Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics and its overall objectives. The presentation will show how crime mapping can be used to develop crime prevention strategies in the Canadian context.

Examining Crime using Statistics Canada Geocoded Data (pdf)

This presentation will highlight Statistics Canada’s involvement in spatial analysis of crime data. The Canadian Center for Justice Statistics (CCJS) is a division of Statistics Canada. The Center operates a broad range of surveys across the major sectors of the civil and criminal justice system including the Uniform Crime Reporting incident-based survey, courts, corrections and victim based surveys. The CCJS is responsible for collecting and analyzing crime data using an integrated approach.

James Scarangelli

Trenton Police Department

Utilization of Crime Mapping in the City of Trenton (pdf)

The utilization of crime mapping affords law enforcement professionals the ability to analyze crime events with the benefit of visualization not afforded in the printed word. Analysis of crime mapping data provides not only the ability to detect geographic patterns of crime but also to develop strategies to abate the crime threat, evaluate the performance of operational plans, and determine the need for additional strategy implementation. Crime mapping also provides law enforcement executives with an accountability system that can determine if personnel within their agency are performing their duties as they have been directed.

Peter Schmitz

Logistics and Quantitative Methods, CSIR Built Environment

Determining Criminal Activity Space Using Mobile Phone Technology (pdf)

We propose two methods for determining a suspected criminal’s activity space using mobile telephones. The first uses call data records from a suspect’s mobile telephone (the cell for each call made and received). The second involves actively tracking the mobile telephone and obtaining its location at specified time intervals. For both, we use the cell locations and movements between the cells to determine the most likely roads used by the suspect as they move around. The cell information and road network help determine the activity space. Frequently used cells indicate possible anchor points.

Maya Silva

Temple University

The Research Applications for GIS in Identifying Demographic Changes Over Time

Gentrification, urban renewal, and other types of neighborhood change are important areas of study for researchers interested in urban crime patterns. GIS can greatly benefit the site selection phase of research projects that aim to capture the type of micro-level phenomena that might be the most closely associated with crime (i.e., the density of social networks and availability of local resources). This paper discusses several methods for visually presenting multiple years of census data to help identify specific areas that have experienced dramatic demographic changes over time.

Kurt Smith

Redlands Police Department

GPS in a Crime Analysis Context: Practical Considerations, Research Needs (pdf)

Global Positioning System (GPS) data is hitting the crime and intelligence analysis profession from every angle—AVL, offender monitoring, cell phones, etc. Whether these new data streams yield improved tactical and strategic analyses rests with how GIS practitioners, crime and intelligence analysts, researchers, and our technology allies prepare for and adapt to this change. An overview of GPS considerations, examples of how this data is being used, and suggested approaches to delivering today while preparing for tomorrow’s avalanche will be discussed.

Susan C. (Wernicke) Smith

Shawnee (KS) Police

Using GIS for Search Warrants (pdf)

Local law enforcement has found many uses for GIS is tracking and monitoring crime incidents and movement and in forecasting future incidents. However, an application of GIS in preparing for and executing search warrants can be crucial, as officer safety, witness/bystander safety, and even suspect/arrestee safety is at its highest vulnerability during these events. This presentation will provide examples of how GIS was integrated and proved to be crucial in the successful execution of three search warrants conducted by Shawnee Police Department’s SWAT team. In all three examples, information discovered through GIS was used to enhance the safety of all involved and protect evidence and property during the execution of a search warrant.

Using GIS Technology to Track, Forecast and Apprehend a Serial Robber in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area Across Multiple Jurisdictional Boundaries

In 2005, the Kansas City Metro area was plagued by an extremely active “fast food” robber. After striking across many jurisdictional boundaries, Shawnee Police Department’s crime analyst was tasked with analyzing and forecasting possible hits for the entire metro area. Using data gathered from the agencies, along with GIS information from a variety of police and non-police databases, the analyst was able to identify a specific pattern related to the geography of the crimes- which included repeat victimization - and forecast accurately the next hit in Independence, MO. IPD was surveilling the forecasted location when the robber struck. He was taken into custody.

Shellie Solomon

Justice & Security Strategies, Inc.

Building a Village One Map at a Time (pdf)

The ramifications for incarceration go beyond the individual felon. Incarceration has unseen consequences for children and families. A multidisciplinary team is using GIS/spatial analysis to educate about the children left behind from incarceration. Data from the criminal justice system are integrated with data from the social services sector to understand issues and redefine social services asset mapping. The session will describe how GIS analysis is used to: (1) identify the need for services for children of inmates, (2) acquire funds, (3) advocate with policymakers, and (4) assess the impacts of prevention efforts.

Sanjeev Sridharan

University of Edinburgh

A Learning Through Principled Discovery Framework of Monitoring Social Indicators: An Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis Approach to Understanding the Context of Social Programs (pdf)

We describe an exploratory spatial data approach to understanding changes in key social indicators. Using an example of public health surveillance data from Scotland, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods are used to develop the notion of a risk landscape as a measure of the context in which operates are discussed. Our approach applies a learning through principled discovery approach for a centralized unit (such as a State) to monitor and learn from developments in localities. Links between our approach and a realist framework of evaluation are discussed

Terry Sterling

Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office

Optimizing the Data Generated by GPS tracking of Offenders (pdf)

For several years now probation and parole agencies have been using GPS-based technology to locate and track offenders in the community. A series of high profile cases including the Jessica Lunsford case in Florida have prompted many states to enact or propose legislation that mandates the use of GPS-based tracking of certain offenders, in some cases for life. As a result of these new laws the number of offenders monitored in this manner is expected to grow by leaps and bounds. To date, agencies utilizing this technology typically use only a fraction of the data generated, often limiting themselves to data which indicates exclusion zone violations. A tremendous amount of potentially critical data remains unused. This panel will focus on the data generated by GPS tracking systems and the many ways in which law enforcement and the criminal justice system can capitalize on this data, including crime scene correlation, sex offender residence verification, and identifying patterns of movement that may be precursors to criminal activity.

Travis Taniguchi

Temple University

Crime and Its Proximity to Drug Gang Sites: A Spatial Intelligence Challenge (pdf)

Traditionally, the void between criminal intelligence and crime analysis has kept drug and gang investigations separated from the crime problems that they might cause. The case-specific nature of gang investigations has rarely merged well with the high-volume focus of much crime analysis. In this paper, we use a new localized buffer technique to determine the intensity of property and violent crime around drug corners associated with different gangs. The technique allows for better measurement of crime in the vicinity of gang corners, and we find significant variation in the crime intensity for non-gang and gang locations and disputed sites.

Jasper van der Kemp

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Crime Patterns Reanalyzed: The Offender in Sight

Crime patterns are analyzed in various ways with different theoretical concepts and techniques. The focus of attention can be directed at the city level or pointed toward the pattern of crime locations of an offender. From both neighborhood and offender travel behavior studies, hypotheses can be drawn about factors of influence of these patterns, such as the target backcloth, infrastructure, and general characteristics of neighborhoods. This paper will discuss how the city level is influenced by the patterns of offenders, and a concept about the underlying factors will be discussed.

Asheley Van Ness

Massachusetts Executive Office of Public Safety

Moving Beyond Maps: Using Spatial Analysis Methods to Understand Violence and Reentry Issues (pdf)

This presentation will focus on moving beyond GIS modeling by applying various CrimeStat routines to violence and offender reentry data. Spatial analysis techniques will be explored (as appropriate) to address violence and reentry policy questions, such as neighborhood planning, service delivery planning, and employment issues. More specifically, we will use spatial descriptions to look at where employment services for ex-offenders should be located, use distance analysis methods to examine if violence is randomly distributed across a study area, and hot-spot analysis to identify clusters of returning offenders who do and do not receive social services and areas in the community that may have higher concentration of violence.

Isaac T Van Patten

Radford University, Department of Criminal Justice

Spatial Configuration of Sexual Homicide in Los Angeles: A 25-Year History (pdf)

Twenty-five years of sexual homicides in Los Angeles County were examined from the context of routine activities theory. The spatial configuration of 195 sexual homicide incidents occurring between 1980 and 2004 were evaluated using the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis. Victim-to-body dump and offender-to-body dump trips are then analyzed in terms of distance traveled and directionality of travel. Finally, distance type mobility triangles are developed, and the incidents analyzed using the Neighborhood, Predator, Intrusion, Offense-Mobility, Total Mobility typology developed by Tita & Grifiths (2005) and extended by Groff & McEwen (2006). The results are discussed in the context of both technical issues in the analysis and the implications for understanding the overlapping activity spaces of victims and offenders.

Lorie Velarde

Irvine Police Department

The Use of Mapping for Tactical Decision-making in a Serial Burglary Case

For several years, the city of Irvine experienced a high number of residential burglaries, and it was believed that a serial burglar was at work. Crime analysts were tasked with determining the case linkage, detecting temporal and spatial patterns, and providing tactical information for the development of an operation plan. This presentation details the role analysis and mapping played in the creation of a tactical action plan that resulted in the identification and apprehension of the offender.

Fahui Wang

Northern Illinois University

Application of a New Clustering Method in Analyzing Homicide Patterns in Chicago (pdf)

The rate estimates for rare events like homicide in small populations are very susceptible to data errors and thus compromise the validity of inferences. One approach is to construct geographic areas with sufficiently large base populations to permit reliable estimates of homicide rates to be obtained. This presentation introduces a new clustering method based on the scale-space theory that groups polygon objects of similar attributes together and thus creates larger analysis areas. The method is implemented in a GIS program for wide distribution. A case study of homicide patterns in Chicago demonstrates effectiveness of the method.

Julie Wartell

San Diego County District Attorney's Office

Sex Offender Laws: Planning for an Election (pdf)

Over the last year or so, many States and municipalities have implemented new, tougher sex offender laws. Modeled after Florida’s Jessica’s Law, California put a similar law on the ballot for November. The San Diego District Attorney (DA) has been a big proponent of this ballot measure, which has required a wide number of maps and geographic analyses. This presentation will provide an overview of the various maps and analyses completed for the DA in anticipation of the election.

Internet Crime Mapping: From Conception to Release and Beyond (pdf)

This workshop will cover the implementation of an Internet crime mapping application. Through the use of a primary case study (San Diego County Regional Crime MAPS), other examples from around the country, and the experience of the instructor, the participant will learn about assessing needs, writing requirements, and the variety of tasks necessary to implement this type of application. The advantages and challenges of public Internet crime mapping will be interactively discussed as well as the variations between a public and law enforcement-only system. Finally, some how-to’s and resources will be provided.

Ruth Weir

Home Office

Using Spatial and Geo-Demographic Analysis to Understand Distraction Burglary in the East of England (pdf)

Distraction burglary is a particularly unpleasant crime where offenders prey on vulnerable people. The fact that offenders are thought to travel extensively to commit their crimes means that confining analysis to one police force area will not fully address the problem. This research aimed to investigate the patterns of distraction burglary, particularly exploring the interaction between victims, offenders, and place. The research used GIS to explore the spatial patterns of offenses and to consider the link between geo-demographic classifications, deprivation, and victims’ addresses. Strong links were found between geo-demographic classifications and the chances of being a victim of distraction burglary.

Janeena Wing

Idaho State Police

Challenges and Opportunities Rural States Face in Mapping NIBRS (pdf)

Research was conducted to determine the best way to map National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data in Idaho, which has many counties with very sparse populations. Thematic maps showing crime by county yielded little if any usable information because they were not able to show where Idaho crimes were actually occurring. Mapping NIBRS data by the jurisdictional boundaries of city, county, and State agencies has shown positive rewards. County- and State-level data are mathematically estimated and placed where they most likely occurred.

Xiaowen Yang

University of Florida

Repeat Single Family Burglary—Spatial and Temporal Patterns (pdf)

With the tools of spatial and temporal analysis, this research seeks to (1) explore the time course of repeat single-family burglary, (2) compare spatial pattern of repeat single-family residential burglary and hot spots of all single-family residential burglary (repeat and non-repeat), and (3) compare the findings with international studies. In addition, we explore some of the improvements in methodologies that would enhance the study of repeat victimization. This study analyzes 3,100 residential burglary cases reported by the Gainesville, Florida, Police Department over a 4-year period to explore repeat burglaries.

David Zwarg

Avencia Incorporated

SMART + Kaleidoscope: National and Regional Analysis for Juvenile Justice

Crime mapping has matured beyond a desire to simply map crime events. There is a broad realization that mapping crime is not enough—rather, there is a need to analyze and visualize risk factors that lead to crime. Toward this end, the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention has developed the Socioeconomic Mapping and Resource Topography (SMART) system to provide visitors with not only an event mapping capability, but also the ability to plot federally funded programs that address delinquency and crime. Visitors can create maps and retrieve statistics using the socioeconomic, crime, and resource data provided at various geographic levels, including the State, county, and local levels.