# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center. # Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov # # Annual Verification Statistics for Daily Proton Event Probability Forecasts # # Lead Time: Forecast lead time # Total Records: Total number of daily forecast/observation records used to generate statistic # Event Days: Total number of days in the sample on which a proton event occurred (see note below) # Mean (f): Mean forecast # Mean (x): Mean observation # Median (f): Median forecast # Std Dev (f): Standard deviation of forecasts # Std Dev (x): Standard deviation of observations # Std Dev (f-x): Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations # Mean (f|x=1): Mean forecast given the occurrence of an event # Mean (f|x=0): Mean forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=1): Median forecast given the occurrence of an event # Median (f|x=0): Median forecast given the non-occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=1): Standard deviation of forecasts given the occurrence of an event # Std Dev (f|x=0): Standard deviation of forecasts given the non-occurrence of an event # Discrimination: The difference between [Mean (f|x=1)] and [Mean (f|x=0)] # ME: Mean error # MAE: Mean absolute error # MSE: Mean square error # RMSE: Root mean square error # Linear Assoc: Linear correlation between forecasts and observations # Skill: Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency) # # Missing data: -99999 # # Note: The proton event forecast was fundamentally changed in Jan 2000. Prior to this # the forecast was for the liklihood (probability) of the >10 MeV proton flux passing # the 10 pfu event threshold (event onset). Events already in progress were not # counted as events on subsequent days. In Jan 2000 the forecast was changed to # be the liklihood that the >10 proton flux would be above the 10 pfu event threshold # on a given day. Thus events lasting several days now constitute proton events on each # of the days the event threshold is exceeded, not just on the day of event onset # as before. # Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2006 Start: 1/1/06 End: 12/31/06 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 10 10 10 Mean (f): 0.032 0.023 0.018 Mean (x): 0.027 0.027 0.027 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.131 0.087 0.061 Std Dev (x): 0.163 0.163 0.163 Std Dev (f-x): 0.066 0.109 0.146 Mean (f|x=1): 0.752 0.430 0.187 Mean (f|x=0): 0.011 0.011 0.013 Median (f|x=1): 0.950 0.400 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.310 0.327 0.223 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.014 0.016 0.042 Discrimination: 0.741 0.419 0.174 ME: 0.004 -0.005 -0.009 MAE: 0.018 0.027 0.035 MSE: 0.004 0.012 0.021 RMSE: 0.066 0.109 0.146 Linear Assoc: 0.923 0.786 0.462 Skill: 0.837 0.553 0.203 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2005 Start: 1/1/05 End: 12/31/05 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 34 34 34 Mean (f): 0.091 0.063 0.053 Mean (x): 0.093 0.093 0.093 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.233 0.162 0.141 Std Dev (x): 0.291 0.291 0.291 Std Dev (f-x): 0.147 0.231 0.254 Mean (f|x=1): 0.719 0.371 0.269 Mean (f|x=0): 0.027 0.032 0.031 Median (f|x=1): 0.900 0.250 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.352 0.344 0.326 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.051 0.081 0.077 Discrimination: 0.692 0.339 0.238 ME: -0.002 -0.030 -0.040 MAE: 0.050 0.087 0.096 MSE: 0.022 0.054 0.066 RMSE: 0.147 0.233 0.256 Linear Assoc: 0.865 0.609 0.491 Skill: 0.744 0.357 0.222 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2004 Start: 1/1/04 End: 12/31/04 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 18 18 18 Mean (f): 0.061 0.036 0.032 Mean (x): 0.049 0.049 0.049 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.167 0.056 0.052 Std Dev (x): 0.217 0.217 0.217 Std Dev (f-x): 0.150 0.197 0.205 Mean (f|x=1): 0.591 0.150 0.108 Mean (f|x=0): 0.033 0.030 0.028 Median (f|x=1): 0.900 0.150 0.150 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.428 0.127 0.076 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.070 0.042 0.047 Discrimination: 0.558 0.120 0.080 ME: 0.012 -0.013 -0.017 MAE: 0.052 0.070 0.071 MSE: 0.022 0.039 0.042 RMSE: 0.150 0.197 0.206 Linear Assoc: 0.724 0.464 0.335 Skill: 0.520 0.169 0.097 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2003 Start: 1/1/03 End: 12/31/03 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 22 22 22 Mean (f): 0.064 0.051 0.042 Mean (x): 0.060 0.060 0.060 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.170 0.127 0.091 Std Dev (x): 0.238 0.238 0.238 Std Dev (f-x): 0.164 0.179 0.190 Mean (f|x=1): 0.549 0.389 0.281 Mean (f|x=0): 0.033 0.030 0.027 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.250 0.250 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.415 0.325 0.231 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.063 0.053 0.040 Discrimination: 0.516 0.359 0.254 ME: 0.003 -0.009 -0.018 MAE: 0.058 0.065 0.069 MSE: 0.027 0.032 0.036 RMSE: 0.164 0.179 0.191 Linear Assoc: 0.725 0.675 0.666 Skill: 0.526 0.434 0.357 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2002 Start: 1/1/02 End: 12/31/02 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 53 53 53 Mean (f): 0.113 0.077 0.057 Mean (x): 0.145 0.145 0.145 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.231 0.157 0.110 Std Dev (x): 0.353 0.353 0.353 Std Dev (f-x): 0.240 0.300 0.334 Mean (f|x=1): 0.526 0.279 0.142 Mean (f|x=0): 0.043 0.043 0.043 Median (f|x=1): 0.500 0.100 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.395 0.328 0.189 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.047 0.051 0.082 Discrimination: 0.483 0.237 0.099 ME: -0.032 -0.068 -0.088 MAE: 0.106 0.141 0.161 MSE: 0.058 0.094 0.119 RMSE: 0.242 0.307 0.345 Linear Assoc: 0.739 0.534 0.319 Skill: 0.530 0.239 0.039 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2001 Start: 1/1/01 End: 12/31/01 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 68 68 68 Mean (f): 0.174 0.114 0.088 Mean (x): 0.186 0.186 0.186 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.289 0.177 0.122 Std Dev (x): 0.390 0.390 0.390 Std Dev (f-x): 0.259 0.338 0.363 Mean (f|x=1): 0.624 0.299 0.181 Mean (f|x=0): 0.072 0.071 0.067 Median (f|x=1): 0.900 0.150 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.401 0.299 0.194 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.094 0.093 0.085 Discrimination: 0.552 0.228 0.114 ME: -0.012 -0.072 -0.098 MAE: 0.128 0.189 0.207 MSE: 0.067 0.119 0.141 RMSE: 0.259 0.345 0.376 Linear Assoc: 0.746 0.501 0.366 Skill: 0.556 0.214 0.067 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 2000 Start: 1/1/00 End: 12/31/00 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 33 33 33 Mean (f): 0.091 0.075 0.066 Mean (x): 0.090 0.090 0.090 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.195 0.145 0.123 Std Dev (x): 0.287 0.287 0.287 Std Dev (f-x): 0.212 0.243 0.253 Mean (f|x=1): 0.507 0.320 0.250 Mean (f|x=0): 0.050 0.051 0.048 Median (f|x=1): 0.350 0.200 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.446 0.359 0.322 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.060 0.064 0.054 Discrimination: 0.457 0.269 0.202 ME: 0.001 -0.015 -0.024 MAE: 0.090 0.107 0.111 MSE: 0.045 0.059 0.064 RMSE: 0.212 0.243 0.254 Linear Assoc: 0.673 0.534 0.472 Skill: 0.453 0.281 0.214 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1999 Start: 1/1/99 End: 12/31/99 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 5 5 5 Mean (f): 0.048 0.047 0.046 Mean (x): 0.014 0.014 0.014 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.055 0.057 0.058 Std Dev (x): 0.116 0.116 0.116 Std Dev (f-x): 0.131 0.132 0.132 Mean (f|x=1): 0.026 0.018 0.026 Mean (f|x=0): 0.048 0.047 0.047 Median (f|x=1): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.022 0.018 0.022 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.056 0.057 0.058 Discrimination: -0.022 -0.029 -0.021 ME: 0.034 0.033 0.033 MAE: 0.061 0.060 0.059 MSE: 0.018 0.019 0.018 RMSE: 0.135 0.136 0.136 Linear Assoc: -0.046 -0.060 -0.042 Skill: -0.355 -0.377 -0.365 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1998 Start: 1/1/98 End: 12/31/98 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 8 8 8 Mean (f): 0.043 0.041 0.038 Mean (x): 0.022 0.022 0.022 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.071 0.067 0.064 Std Dev (x): 0.147 0.147 0.147 Std Dev (f-x): 0.150 0.148 0.144 Mean (f|x=1): 0.135 0.134 0.147 Mean (f|x=0): 0.041 0.039 0.035 Median (f|x=1): 0.100 0.100 0.150 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.168 0.167 0.164 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.066 0.062 0.058 Discrimination: 0.094 0.095 0.112 ME: 0.021 0.019 0.016 MAE: 0.059 0.057 0.053 MSE: 0.023 0.022 0.021 RMSE: 0.151 0.149 0.145 Linear Assoc: 0.195 0.207 0.257 Skill: -0.066 -0.037 0.022 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1997 Start: 1/1/97 End: 12/31/97 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 2 2 2 Mean (f): 0.014 0.014 0.014 Mean (x): 0.005 0.005 0.005 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.021 0.021 0.021 Std Dev (x): 0.074 0.074 0.074 Std Dev (f-x): 0.064 0.068 0.068 Mean (f|x=1): 0.175 0.130 0.130 Mean (f|x=0): 0.013 0.013 0.013 Median (f|x=1): 0.250 0.250 0.250 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.106 0.170 0.170 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.016 0.017 0.017 Discrimination: 0.162 0.117 0.117 ME: 0.008 0.008 0.008 MAE: 0.017 0.018 0.018 MSE: 0.004 0.005 0.005 RMSE: 0.065 0.068 0.068 Linear Assoc: 0.572 0.414 0.412 Skill: 0.231 0.141 0.140 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1996 Start: 1/1/96 End: 12/31/96 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.009 0.007 0.007 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.009 0.007 0.007 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.011 0.011 0.011 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.009 0.007 0.007 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.011 0.011 0.011 MAE: 0.011 0.011 0.011 MSE: 0.000 0.000 0.000 RMSE: 0.014 0.013 0.013 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1995 Start: 1/1/95 End: 12/31/95 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 1 1 1 Mean (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Mean (x): 0.003 0.003 0.003 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.006 0.003 0.002 Std Dev (x): 0.052 0.052 0.052 Std Dev (f-x): 0.053 0.052 0.052 Mean (f|x=1): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Mean (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.006 0.003 0.002 Discrimination: 0.000 0.000 0.000 ME: 0.008 0.007 0.007 MAE: 0.013 0.013 0.013 MSE: 0.003 0.003 0.003 RMSE: 0.053 0.053 0.053 Linear Assoc: -0.004 -0.004 -0.003 Skill: -0.034 -0.024 -0.022 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1994 Start: 1/1/94 End: 12/31/94 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 2 2 2 Mean (f): 0.012 0.012 0.012 Mean (x): 0.005 0.005 0.005 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.010 0.009 0.009 Std Dev (x): 0.074 0.074 0.074 Std Dev (f-x): 0.075 0.075 0.075 Mean (f|x=1): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Mean (f|x=0): 0.012 0.012 0.012 Median (f|x=1): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.010 0.009 0.009 Discrimination: -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 ME: 0.007 0.006 0.006 MAE: 0.017 0.017 0.017 MSE: 0.006 0.006 0.006 RMSE: 0.075 0.075 0.075 Linear Assoc: -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 Skill: -0.029 -0.026 -0.027 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1993 Start: 1/1/93 End: 12/31/93 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 2 2 2 Mean (f): 0.026 0.025 0.024 Mean (x): 0.005 0.005 0.005 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.043 0.041 0.040 Std Dev (x): 0.074 0.074 0.074 Std Dev (f-x): 0.077 0.078 0.077 Mean (f|x=1): 0.150 0.130 0.130 Mean (f|x=0): 0.025 0.025 0.024 Median (f|x=1): 0.250 0.250 0.250 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.141 0.170 0.170 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.041 0.040 0.038 Discrimination: 0.125 0.105 0.106 ME: 0.020 0.020 0.019 MAE: 0.030 0.029 0.028 MSE: 0.006 0.006 0.006 RMSE: 0.080 0.080 0.079 Linear Assoc: 0.216 0.189 0.196 Skill: -0.161 -0.173 -0.146 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1992 Start: 1/1/92 End: 12/31/92 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 6 6 6 Mean (f): 0.038 0.037 0.034 Mean (x): 0.016 0.016 0.016 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.052 0.051 0.049 Std Dev (x): 0.127 0.127 0.127 Std Dev (f-x): 0.137 0.136 0.136 Mean (f|x=1): 0.040 0.047 0.038 Mean (f|x=0): 0.038 0.037 0.034 Median (f|x=1): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.035 0.044 0.036 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.053 0.051 0.049 Discrimination: 0.002 0.010 0.005 ME: 0.022 0.020 0.017 MAE: 0.053 0.052 0.049 MSE: 0.019 0.019 0.019 RMSE: 0.139 0.137 0.137 Linear Assoc: 0.004 0.025 0.012 Skill: -0.196 -0.165 -0.156 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1991 Start: 1/1/91 End: 12/31/91 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 17 17 17 Mean (f): 0.117 0.111 0.107 Mean (x): 0.047 0.047 0.047 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.138 0.136 0.137 Std Dev (x): 0.211 0.211 0.211 Std Dev (f-x): 0.238 0.235 0.233 Mean (f|x=1): 0.192 0.196 0.202 Mean (f|x=0): 0.113 0.107 0.102 Median (f|x=1): 0.200 0.200 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.139 0.141 0.173 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.137 0.135 0.133 Discrimination: 0.079 0.089 0.100 ME: 0.070 0.065 0.060 MAE: 0.146 0.140 0.135 MSE: 0.061 0.059 0.058 RMSE: 0.248 0.243 0.240 Linear Assoc: 0.121 0.139 0.155 Skill: -0.381 -0.331 -0.301 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1990 Start: 1/1/90 End: 12/31/90 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 12 12 12 Mean (f): 0.061 0.058 0.056 Mean (x): 0.033 0.033 0.033 Median (f): 0.050 0.020 0.020 Std Dev (f): 0.072 0.071 0.070 Std Dev (x): 0.179 0.179 0.179 Std Dev (f-x): 0.187 0.187 0.185 Mean (f|x=1): 0.091 0.087 0.095 Mean (f|x=0): 0.060 0.057 0.055 Median (f|x=1): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Median (f|x=0): 0.020 0.020 0.020 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.097 0.099 0.118 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.071 0.070 0.067 Discrimination: 0.031 0.031 0.040 ME: 0.028 0.025 0.023 MAE: 0.087 0.085 0.083 MSE: 0.036 0.036 0.035 RMSE: 0.189 0.188 0.186 Linear Assoc: 0.077 0.077 0.103 Skill: -0.126 -0.117 -0.089 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1989 Start: 1/1/89 End: 12/31/89 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 23 23 23 Mean (f): 0.129 0.127 0.123 Mean (x): 0.063 0.063 0.063 Median (f): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f): 0.129 0.128 0.124 Std Dev (x): 0.243 0.243 0.243 Std Dev (f-x): 0.273 0.275 0.270 Mean (f|x=1): 0.141 0.124 0.137 Mean (f|x=0): 0.129 0.127 0.122 Median (f|x=1): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Median (f|x=0): 0.100 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.119 0.112 0.121 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.130 0.129 0.124 Discrimination: 0.012 -0.002 0.015 ME: 0.066 0.064 0.060 MAE: 0.175 0.174 0.168 MSE: 0.079 0.080 0.076 RMSE: 0.280 0.282 0.276 Linear Assoc: 0.023 -0.005 0.030 Skill: -0.331 -0.348 -0.290 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1988 Start: 1/1/88 End: 12/31/88 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 366 366 366 Event Days: 9 9 9 Mean (f): 0.078 0.074 0.072 Mean (x): 0.025 0.025 0.025 Median (f): 0.050 0.050 0.050 Std Dev (f): 0.101 0.100 0.100 Std Dev (x): 0.155 0.155 0.155 Std Dev (f-x): 0.177 0.177 0.178 Mean (f|x=1): 0.140 0.131 0.120 Mean (f|x=0): 0.076 0.073 0.071 Median (f|x=1): 0.100 0.100 0.150 Median (f|x=0): 0.050 0.050 0.040 Std Dev (f|x=1): 0.160 0.155 0.105 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.099 0.098 0.099 Discrimination: 0.064 0.058 0.049 ME: 0.053 0.050 0.047 MAE: 0.096 0.093 0.090 MSE: 0.034 0.034 0.034 RMSE: 0.184 0.184 0.184 Linear Assoc: 0.098 0.090 0.077 Skill: -0.417 -0.406 -0.406 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1987 Start: 1/1/87 End: 12/31/87 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 365 365 365 Event Days: 1 1 1 Mean (f): 0.013 0.014 0.014 Mean (x): 0.003 0.003 0.003 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.012 0.015 0.017 Std Dev (x): 0.052 0.052 0.052 Std Dev (f-x): 0.054 0.055 0.055 Mean (f|x=1): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Mean (f|x=0): 0.013 0.014 0.014 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.012 0.015 0.017 Discrimination: -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 ME: 0.011 0.011 0.011 MAE: 0.016 0.017 0.017 MSE: 0.003 0.003 0.003 RMSE: 0.055 0.056 0.056 Linear Assoc: -0.015 -0.014 -0.013 Skill: -0.098 -0.132 -0.159 Forecast Type: Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of a proton event Year: 1986 Start: 7/1/86 End: 12/31/86 Lead Time: Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Total Records: 184 184 184 Event Days: 0 0 0 Mean (f): 0.012 0.013 0.013 Mean (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Median (f): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f): 0.009 0.012 0.017 Std Dev (x): 0.000 0.000 0.000 Std Dev (f-x): 0.009 0.012 0.017 Mean (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Mean (f|x=0): 0.012 0.013 0.013 Median (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Median (f|x=0): 0.010 0.010 0.010 Std Dev (f|x=1): -99999 -99999 -99999 Std Dev (f|x=0): 0.009 0.012 0.017 Discrimination: -99999 -99999 -99999 ME: 0.012 0.013 0.013 MAE: 0.012 0.013 0.013 MSE: 0.000 0.000 0.000 RMSE: 0.015 0.017 0.022 Linear Assoc: -99999 -99999 -99999 Skill: -99999 -99999 -99999