The annual trend, from 1986 to 2006, of various verification metrics for Proton Event forecasts with lead times of one to three days. The top panel plots the number of days on which a proton event occurred during the year (event climatology), the second panel plots the mean value of the forecasts associated with days on which a proton event occurred, the third panel plots the mean value of the forecasts associated with days on which a proton event did not occur, and the bottom panel displays annual SEC forecast skill relative to sample climatology forecasts (prediction efficiency). The vertical red dashed line marks Jan 2000 when the proton event forecast was changed from event "onset" days to all days for which the proton event 10 pfu threshold was exceeded.

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