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HURRICANE FORECASTERS EXPECT NORMAL ATLANTIC STORM ACTIVITY IN
2001
NOAA Says 5 to 7 Hurricanes Could Threaten
May 21, 2001 Top hurricane experts
from NOAA today said the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season
likely will have normal levels of activity, bringing fewer storms
than the past three years. However, officials advised residents
in Atlantic and Gulf Coast states to be prepared for storms,
high winds and flooding throughout the season, which begins June
1. (Click on NOAA image to see larger view of Hurricane Floyd
as seen by a NOAA satellite Sept. 13, 1999.)
(Click
here to view the Washington, D.C., news conference on May
21, 2001. Click
here to view the question and answer period following the
formal statements.)
(Click here
to view a B-Roll video of clips of the various NOAA research
aircraft that fly into hurricanes and for animation of what it's
like to fly into hurricanes.)
At a news conference at the Ronald Reagan National Airport near
Washington, D.C., NOAA officials said the absence of strong La Niña
conditions this year will likely result in a number of storms,
but relatively fewer compared to the last three seasons. In 2000,
there were 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes.
A normal Atlantic hurricane
season typically brings eight to 11 tropical storms, of which
five to seven reach hurricane strength, with two to three classified
as major. A major hurricane packs sustained winds greater than
110 mph and is classified at Category 3, or above, on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale. Seasons with normal hurricane activity average
one to two land-falling hurricanes in the United States, and
one in the Caribbean.
Click images for
larger view.
![NOAA hurricane trackng chart for year 2000](images/2000atl2.jpg)
NOAA tracking chart of year
2000 hurricanes. |
![NOAA 2001 hurricane season outlook](images/expected-hurr2001.jpg)
NOAA 2001 hurricane season
outlook. |
"Although we expect an average
level of activity this season, that is no cause to become complacent.
With the possibility of five to seven hurricanes, residents in
hurricane prone areas can't afford to let their guard down,"
said Scott Gudes,
NOAA's acting administrator. "Just one storm can dramatically
change your life." (Click on image for larger view of
Scott Gudes, acting NOAA administrator speaking at Washington,
D.C., news conference on the 2001 hurricane season.)
The news conference also marked
the start of a nationwide Hurricane Awareness Week campaign led
by NOAA, the Federal Emergency
Management Agency and storm-vulnerable states to increase
preparedness and safety among residents.
Gudes pointed to continuing
improvements in technology and research that enabled forecasters
to produce the 2001 outlook. "Better data from NOAA's weather
satellites, better models, the latest supercomputers and an improved
ability to monitor and understand global climate patterns are
helping to create better long-term forecasts," Gudes said.
Prior to the news conference, FEMA
Director Joe M. Allbaugh said, "As we look to another hurricane
season with an ever-growing population living in vulnerable coastal
areas, our charge is clear. FEMA stands ready to provide both
the leadership and the necessary technical assistance and guidance
to communities as they assume responsibility for becoming more
disaster resistant. Preventing the loss of life, minimizing the
damage to property from hurricanes is a responsibility that is
shared by all."
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Jack
Kelly, director of NOAA's
National Weather Service, said without a strong La Niña
or El Niño the
key climate patterns guiding this year's expected activity are
long-term patterns of tropical rainfall, air pressure and temperatures
of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
"Forecasters will monitor
these climate patterns, especially leading up to the August -
October peak period of the season," Kelly said. "One
of the most valuable forecast tools is the information gathered
by NOAA and U.S.
Air Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into these storms,"
Kelly added, while flanked by NOAA's
WP-3D, G-IV
and the Air Force's
WC-130-H hurricane hunter/research aircraft.
Click on images for larger view. Please note: these files are
large.
![NOAA's Gulfstream IV hurricane research aircraft](images/gulfstream-side2.jpg)
NOAA's Gulfstream IV hurricane research aircraft at Washington
National Airport, May 21, 2001. |
![NOAA's WP-3D Orion hurricane research aircraft](images/p3-052101b.jpg)
NOAA's WP-3D Orion hurricane research aircraft at Washington
National Airport, May 21, 2001. |
![NOAA hurricane hunter air crew](images/hurricane-aircrew2.jpg)
NOAA hurricane hunter air crew who fly NOAA research aircraft
into hurricanes. |
Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's
National Hurricane Center in Miami, said hurricane-spawned
disasters occur even in years with normal, or below-normal, levels
of activity. Hurricanes Donna
of 1960, David and Frederic of 1979, and Elena, Gloria and Juan
of 1985 are reminders of the destruction that can occur during
seasons with normal hurricane activity, he said. Hurricane Andrew
of 1992, the costliest hurricane on record, developed during
a season of below-normal hurricane activity, Mayfield added.
(Click on NOAA image of Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National
Hurricane Center, speaking to a news conference in Washington,
D.C., on the outlook for hurricane season 2001. Click
here for another photo of Mayfield.)
"[Hurricane] Donna killed
50 people in the United States, and [Hurricane]
Andrew caused more than $25 billion in damage in Florida,"
Mayfield said. "We don't want people to be caught off guard
by a land-falling storm because the hurricane outlook calls for
normal storm activity."
Mayfield also highlighted the
dangers of inland flooding. "In 1999, Hurricane
Floyd brought record flooding to the East Coast. Fifty of
the 56 deaths during Hurricane Floyd were a direct result of
inland flooding. That kind of threat remains with each approaching
storm."
Mayfield added, "Storm
surge from hurricanes bring the greatest potential for loss
of life. When an evacuation order is given, residents should
treat it as a life or death matter."
Brig. Gen. Robert Duignan,
deputy to the Chief of Air
Force Reserve, said the Air Force Reserve Command mission
significantly narrows the coastline warning made by the National
Hurricane Center. "This warning saves millions of dollars
for businesses and, more important, saves the lives of citizens
located in the storm's path," Duignan said.
"Studies have shown the
high accuracy data from our Air Force Reserve and NOAA aircraft
have improved the forecast accuracy by about 25 percent. Aircrews
in these storms also have detected sudden, dangerous changes
in hurricane intensity and movement, which are currently very
difficult to detect by satellite alone," added Duignan.
"The Hurricane Hunters are proud to serve as a vital link
in the hurricane surveillance and warning network, alerting vulnerable
populations."
Hurricane Awareness Week features a
new Web site that highlights five topicsone for each
day of the weekvital to saving lives and property: Day
1 - Coastal
and Marine Hazards; Day 2 - Wind
Hazards; Day 3 - Inland
Flooding; Day 4 - The
Forecast Process and; Day 5 - Disaster
Prevention.
The Atlantic hurricane seasons
ends Nov. 30. As always, NOAA forecasters will issue an updated
hurricane outlook in August.
Relevant Web Sites
Highlights
of Hurricane Season 2000
Hurricanes
2000 Climate summaries and satellite images
Historic
Hurricanes
Hurricane Basics
Archived
NOAA satellite imagery of historical events
Atlantic
Tropical Events 2001 NOAA satellite imagery
NOAAs
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
Hurricanes: Nature's
Greatest Storms
PRESIDENT BUSH PROCLAIMS MAY 20- 26
AS NATIONAL HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK
Media Contacts:
Curtis
Carey, NOAA's National
Weather Service, (301) 713-0622 or Dave
Miller, NOAA headquarters,
(202) 482-6090 or cell phone (202) 329-4030
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