October 5, 2007
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Treasury Economic Update 10.5.07
"Today's data demonstrate the resilience of the U.S. economy. Steady job creation, rising wages, and still-low unemployment mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape to weather the difficulties we are seeing in housing and credit markets."
Assistant Secretary Phillip Swagel, October 5, 2007
Job Creation Continues:
Job Growth: 110,000 new jobs were created in September, the 49th straight month of job gains. The United States has added 1.6 million jobs in the past 12 months and over 8.4 million jobs since August 2003. Employment increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia over the year ending in August. (Last updated: October 5, 2007)
Low Unemployment: September's 4.7 percent unemployment rate is close to its lowest reading in 6 years. Unemployment rates have declined or held steady in 29 states and the District of Columbia over the year ending in August. (Last updated: October 5, 2007)
There are Still Many Signs of Economic Strength:
Economic Growth: Real GDP growth was 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2007, supported by strong gains in business investment and exports. (Last updated: September 27, 2007)
Business Investment: Business spending on commercial structures and equipment strengthened in the second quarter. Strong corporate profits and healthy balance sheets bode well for continued investment growth. (Last updated: September 27, 2007)
Exports: Strong global growth is boosting U.S. exports, which grew by 7.1 percent over the past 4 quarters. (Last updated: September 27, 2007)
Inflation: Core inflation remains contained. The consumer price index excluding food and energy rose 2.1 percent over the 12 months ending in August. (Last updated: September 19, 2007)
Tax Revenues: Tax receipts rose 11.8 percent in fiscal year 2006 (FY06) on top of FY05's 14.6 percent increase. As a share of GDP, FY07 receipts are projected to be above their 40-year average. (Last updated: July 13, 2007)
Americans Are Keeping More of Their Hard-Earned Money:
Real Wages Increased 2.2 percent Over the Past 12 Months (ending in August). This translates into an additional $720 above inflation for the average full-time production worker over the last year.
Pro-Growth Policies will Enhance Long-Term U.S. Economic Strength:
We are on track to balance the budget by 2012. The Mid-Session Review of the FY 2008 Budget shows that we are on track to achieve a small surplus in 2012. This year, the deficit is projectedto be down to 1.5 percent of GDP. Much of the improvement in the deficit reflects strong revenue growth, which in turn reflects the continued strength of the U.S. economy. Looking ahead, higher spending on entitlement programs dominates the future fiscal situation; we must squarely face up to the challenge of reforming these programs.