PACJET Projects |
HMT 2004
PACJET 2003
PACJET 2002
PACJET 2001
CALJET 1998
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PACJET 2001 IOPs |
IOP 1: 20 Jan 2001
IOP 2: 23 Jan 2001
IOP 3: 25 Jan 2001
IOP 4: 31 Jan 2001
IOP 5: 1 Feb 2001
IOP 6: 6 Feb 2001
IOP 7: 9 Feb 2001
IOP 8: 10 Feb 2001
IOP 9: 11 Feb 2001
IOP 10: 12 Feb 2001
IOP 11: 17 Feb 2001
IOP 12: 18 Feb 2001
IOP 13: 21 Feb 2001
IOP 14: 24 Feb 2001
IOP 15: 25 Feb 2001
IOP 16: 1 Mar 2001
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Background |
About Pacjet
CALJET Summary
Societal Impacts and User Input
Linkages to National Priorities
USWRP
Data Assimilation Implementation Plan
March 2001 Program Status Report
PACJET 2001 Poster
NSSL Briefing
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Program Documents |
PACJET and a Long-term Effort
to Improve 0-24 h West Coast Forecasts
Overview Poster
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Research Participants |
NOAA Research
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AL,
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CNFRC
Office of Marine and Aviation Operations
AOC
Naval Postgradute School
DRI CIASTA
CIRES
SUNY Stony Brook
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
EMC,
HPC,
MPC
National Environmental Satellite, Data
and Information Service
CIMSS,
CIRA
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Operational Forecasting Components |
COMET Presentation
West Coast RUC
Aircraft Obs via AWIPS
GWINDEX Poster
Applications Development
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Research Components |
Modeling Research Components
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Related Experiments |
Winter Storm Reconnaissance (Central Pac.)
CRPAQS (CA Air Quality)
IMPROVE (Microphysics)
THORPEX (Synoptic Targeting)
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Observing Systems |
AEROSONDE
NOAA P-3
Wind Profiler Network
Satellite Products
NOAA S-band Radar
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Contacts |
Program
Media Contacts
Webmaster
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Workshops |
2001 - Monterey, CA
July 13-14 2000 (Boulder, CO)
July Workshop Agenda
September 1999 - Monterey, CA
1999 Planning Workshop Figures
June 1998 - CALJET
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Program Status for 18 February 2001: IOP 12
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Status |
Sunday, February 18 |
Flight in progress. Take off was at 1735 PST.
|
Monday, February 19 |
Weather briefing at 1000 PST.
Possible P-3 flight.
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Observations |
0915 UTC |
|
0904 UTC |
|
0843 UTC |
at 33.80degN, 123.27W, 976mb
heading: 192deg at 1000 ft
winds: 184deg, 42kt
air temp: 12.3degC
dewpt temp: 11.7degC
mix rat: 8.9g/kg
|
0825 UTC |
Lower fuselage radar NCFR image: echo max: 55+ dBz, echo top: 8km, convective core reaches to 3km
|
Tail radar image: convective core reaches to 3 km, just above freezing level.
|
0807 UTC |
at 35.47N, 123.04W, 972mb:
heading: 176deg at 1000 ft.
winds: 168deg, 49kt
air temp: 10.8degC
dewpt temp: 9.4degC
mix rat: 7.6g/kg
|
0742 UTC |
NCFR becomes much weaker at 36.15N, 123.69W
as observed by P3 at 0742 UTC. We will "shoot
the gap" from cold side of NCFR to warm side.
Echo tops much lower at this location as well
(extend only to 3km).
After "shooting gap" just on east side of
NCFR, winds are 158deg at 45 kt (compared to
23 kt on cold side) at 1000 ft.
|
0734 UTC |
at 35.61N, 123.74W, 975mb:
heading: 359deg at 1000 ft
winds: 230deg, 20kt
air temp: 8.7degC
dewpt temp: 5.1degC
mix rat: 5.7g/kg
All obs data
has been taken on cold side of cold front (post-
frontal).
|
0725 UTC |
|
0655 UTC |
Sounding during P3 spiral (in cold air)
at 35.6N, 126.2W
P(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
925 700 7.1 5.3 35 233
850 1388 1.8 1.3 29 232
700 2921 -8.1 -14.3 40 243
|
0650 UTC |
Winds on cold side of NCFR at 18000 ft were
200deg at 100kt (at 0650 UTC at 35.6N, 126.1W)
when P3 was at the rear of the cold frontal
rainband.
|
0640 UTC |
Flight level data and information
from dropsonde#2 seems to indicate that
rainband (NCFR??) is indeed the true
NCFR. Sounding showed:
at 900 mb winds: 235deg, 23m/s, T=4degC
on cold side
air temp on warm side at 900mb was 7degC
with winds 170deg, 31m/s.
Seeing cold air convective cells at 0645UTC
at 35.47N, 126.02W. Back edge of precip appears
to be at ~125degW. Width of precip (NCFR + wide
cold frontal rainband trailing NCFR) is 100km.
|
0635 UTC |
Dropsonde#3 at 35.5N, 125.3W
P(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
1000 63 8.8 6.2 - -
925 705 5.8 0.8 - -
850 1391 1.6 -1.5 31 240
700 2936 -6.5 -12.5 57 225
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0630 UTC |
at 35.47N, 125W, 513 mb:
heading: 256deg at 17500 ft
winds: 205deg, 74kt
air temp: -20.1degC
dewpt temp: -21.0degC
mix rat: 1.4g/kg
drop#3 will be at 35.5N 126W in 11 minutes.
|
0627 UTC |
Sounding #2 at 35.5N, 124.5W
P(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
1000 76 8.6 5.3 - -
925 718 5.6 1.6 - -
850 1405 1.4 -0.9 59 245
700 2951 -5.9 -8.0 41 210
|
0612 UTC |
at 36.09N, 124.38W, 512mb:
heading: 187deg at 17500ft
winds: 198deg, 68kt
air temp: -20.3degC
dewpt temp: -22.1degC
mix rat: 1.3g/kg
|
0547 UTC |
at 35.61N, 124.60W, 973mb:
heading: 342deg at 1000 ft
winds: 158deg, 50kt
air temp: 10.2degC
dewpt temp: 9.6degC
mix rat: 7.7g/kg
Currently still trying to find way to get
to other side of rainband (NCFR??).
|
0530 UTC |
At 34.41N, 124.59W, 976mb:
heading: 14deg at 1000 ft
winds: 172deg, 48kt
air temp: 11.7degC
dewpt temp: 10.3degC
mix rat: 8.1g/kg
|
0521 UTC |
Tail radar image of rainband (NCFR??)
included. Currently running parallel to
band trying to find point to penetrate.
|
0505 UTC |
Radar echos in line show supercell like characteristics.
|
0500 UTC |
at 33.44N, 124.20W, 927mb:
heading: 269deg at 2500 ft
winds: 195deg, 44kt
air temp: 9.7degC
dewpt temp: 7.4degC
mix rat: 6.9g/kg
Moving to penetrate NCFR(??).
|
0454 UTC |
The P3 is interpreting the second band as trailing
stratiform precip. Estimate of primary band movement
is eastward at 30kt.
Heading west toward line, hoping to penetrate to
clarify picture. Should arrive in 20 minutes.
|
0442 UTC |
at 33.43N, 124.13W, 882mb:
heading: 111deg at 3800 ft
winds: 206deg, 43kt
air temp: 6.1degC
dewpt temp: 5.6degC
mix rat: 6.7g/kg
Pilots have spotted lightning as we
have been tracking this storm.
|
0433 UTC |
at 33.57N, 124.76W, 881 mb:
heading: 191deg at 3800 ft
winds: 203deg, 48kt
air temp: 7.0degC
dewpt temp: 3.7degC
mix rat:5.8g/kg
|
0418 UTC |
|
0343 UTC |
At 33.50N, 124.54W, 974 mb:
heading: 112deg at 1000 ft
winds: 176deg, 38kt
air temp: 11.6degC, dewpt temp: 9.2degC, mix rat: 7.5g/kg
Have modified flight plan due to inability
to penetrate NCFR (too continuous and convective).
Current plan is to make flux stacks east of NCFR.
Currently on first leg.
|
0332 UTC |
at 33.61N, 125.28W, 974mb:
heading: 114deg, at 1000 ft
winds: 172deg, 46kt
air temp: 11.6degC, dewpt temp: 10.1degC, mix rat: 8.0g/kg
Unable to penetrate NCFR. Convective line
was too continuous. Could not find a clear path
through NCFR. NCFR image shown at 0322.
|
0322 UTC |
|
0315 UTC |
at 33.34N, 125.89W, 959 mb:
winds: 186deg, 56kt
air temp: 12.0degC, dewpt temp: 9.6degC
NOTE: on WARM side of NCF
Punching through NCFR. Mix ratio on warm side: 8.2g/kg
|
0300 UTC |
Descending at pt 1. During descent at
pt 1, LLJ seen at 920 mb 52kt ,mix rat=7.2g/kg
Pt 1 located at 33.05N, 125.71W
Other levels during descent at pt 1:
Press(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
925 738 10.5 7.8 51 196
850 1440 5.4 2.7 47.6 220
|
0254 UTC |
at 33.03N, 125.76W, 505mb:
heading: 223deg at 18100 ft
winds: 234deg, 68kt
air temp: -20.1degC, dewpt temp: -25.5degC
|
0243 UTC |
at 33.53N, 125.26W, 505mb:
heading: 225deg, at 18100 ft
winds: 234deg, 66kt
air temp: -19.1degC, dewpt temp: -29.2degC
LLJ information from drop:
At 0235UTC, at 33.97N, 124.89W
Max winds: 22m/s, 195deg at 800m
Preliminary estimates of eastward movement
of possible NCFR is 26 kt toward the east
during the evaluation time from 0218-0248 UTC.
|
0235 UTC |
Sounding#1 at 33.97N, 124.89W
P(mb) Ht(m) T(degC) Td(degC) ff(kt) dd(deg)
1000 99 12.6 8.5 31 160
925 748 8.2 5.8 42 190
850 1442 3.6 1.0 41 210
700 3001 -3.1 -9.2 44 220
|
0225 UTC |
34.44N, 124.39W, 505mb:
heading: 223deg at 18000 ft (~27 min to pt 1)
winds: 226deg, 58kt
air temp: -21.5degC, dewpt temp: -40.0degC
|
0214 UTC |
|
0209 UTC |
35.3N, 123.55W, 505 mb:
heading: 225deg, at 18000 ft (42 min to pt 1)
winds: 229deg, 50kt
air temp: -20.7degC, dewpt temp: -38.6degC
|
0146 UTC |
36.41N, 122.42, 599 mb:
heading: 220deg at 13000 ft, 1h 8min to pt 1
winds: 206deg, 29kt
air temp: -13.7degC, dewpt temp: -38.9degC
|
0133 UTC |
850mb ob coming out of MRY:
winds: 170deg, 24kt
air temp: 3.5degC, dewpt temp: -12.4degC
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Forecast Discussion |
Forecast discussion for 18 February 2001
2055 PST
Center of circulation at 0430Z at N38.97/W134.43 and elongated NW-SE.
Appears occlusion process occurring southeastward from the low with the
triple point at N37.93/W129.66 at 0430Z. Buoy#59 (N38/W130) wind shifted
at 03Z to SSW from the SSE at 12KTS. Lightning activity around
N35.22/W125.39 continues to decrease slightly over the last 1/2
hour...but still active with 7 strikes in last 15 minutes at 0430Z.
Gudgel
2040 PST
Comment regarding 0322UTC message about NCFR. It is the opinion of
PACJET Ground Ops and WFO that you are looking at a possible squall
at the previously mentioned NCFR location. In fact there may even
be another instability line between you and the trailing edge of the
coldfront. The guess is that surface front trailing edge from
N36.5/W128.2 south to N34.21/W127.79. Latest lightning at 0430Z
N35.51/W125.44 to south at N34.4/W125.48.
Gudgel
1934 PST
Low circulation elongating NW-SE centered at N39.42/W135.49.
Back edge of vort lobe at N34.86/W127.54 pushing east at 41 knots at
070 degs. Bottom edge of cold air at N33.57 at 0330Z. Coldest temps
at cloud top at -54C at N36.02/W126.39 at 0330Z. At 0415Z lightning
strike at N34.8/W125.52.
1930 PST
After coordinating with forecasters, it appears speed of frontal system at 36N 126.5W moving
070 degrees at 41 knots.
1930 PST
Edge of warm front has moved onshore. Front has moved around 65 mi in 1.5 hours. At 03Z, back
edge of cold front 39.12N 131.58W cold cloud tops arching to 33.31N 127.32W and front edge at
36.93N 125.67W. At 0315Z 24 + strikes 8 - strikes, coldest cloud still -53C at 36.04N 126.87W.
Area of coldest cloud tops is expanding from 01Z to 03Z.
AT 03Z buoy 59 38N 130W SSW12 temp 50 sea 53 pressure 996 waves 10 feet 8 sec.
Back edge of frontal band appears to be farther west than depicted in the radar image sent.
Appears from IR sfc front feature back edge around 1 degree further west.
1845 PST
AT 0230Z 43 + lightning strikes and 3 - strikes in line extending from
36N 126.83W to 34N 126.65W. Coldest cloud tops -53C at 35.4N 127.04W.
Coldest cloud tops stretch from 37N 128W to 35.2N 126.75W.
1840 PST
Apprarent embedded TSTMS as cloud top temps at -53C with 15-min 50+
lightning strikes in depicted N-S line as of 1800 PST from
N36.93/W127.92 south to N33.81/W127.03. Surface cold front back line
still even with upper clouds back line at N35.17.
Gudgel
1815 PST
Speculate that trailing edge of warm front from N39.19N/W127.44 arcing
to southeast N33.32/W122.23. Coldfront, per previous message,
apparently below upper clouds with trailing edge at N38.77/W132.2 arcing
southeast to N35.01/W129.02 and then southwest N30.32/W133.30 (out from
under high clouds). Note: At nose of colder air (nose of jet) at N35.0
obvious convective activity noted with lightning strikes at W127.0.
These strikes showing N-S line from N36.06 south to N34.08. This
feature appears to be moving east and curving NNE at about 32Kts at 1730
PST.
Gudgel
1745 PST
Upper air circulation center at N40.0/W136.5 moving north at 1730 PST
and in counter-clockwise curve and apparently tending toward NNW at this
time. Circulation supporting negative-tilt difluent flow with apparent
driving jet with nose at N35.56/W129.13 at 1730 PST. Southern extent of
cold air apparently bottomed out at N32.5. It appears that system
beginning to move more north of east with low pulling north and no
further south push of supporting jet. Associated vort lobe apparent
arcing from N40.0/W133.4 to N34.4/W128.7. High clouds still over the
surface frontal position with lowest temps at cloud top at -51.0C.
Gudgel
Again relatively poor initialization by the 12Z NGM and ETA models as
the circulation center by satellite WV imagery appears to be near N37/
W138. This location is farther southeast than either the NGM and ETA
which depict only a trof axis to the NW of that position. And to the
AVN credit, it does show semblance of circulation at 12Z initialization
and only slow by about a degree. Satellite WV imagery depicts nice
vorticity lobe along W137 between N33-38. This energy is expected to
support oncoming frontal system targeted to reach NORCAL Coast pre-dawn
on Monday. Cold air in previous system no further south than N39.5 but
this system driving colder air down to N32.5. Like the forecast problem
of past 48 hours, hemisphere flow pattern still in process to estalish
better zonal flow beneath what has been a blocking ridge in the Gulf of
Alaska around N55/W140. Per Monterey WFO Staff model performance had
been too fast with oncoming systems. Timing for main onshore
precipitation adjusted slightly slower than models might otherwise
indicate to reflect arrival of precip around 10Z for North Bay. QPF for
North Coast close to an inch for system from 10Z-00Z.
AVN model seems to hint at a change toward more energy in the lower
latitude split flow and again Monterey WFO indicating some 36-42 hour
periodicity for inclement weather through the coming weekend. Weather
systems expected to be stronger tonight with continuing shower activity
through Monday night along the Central Coast due to instability. Weak
and dirty ridge Tuesday leading to a similar system Wednesday Night.
Outlook calls for a strong system late Saturday but no means of model
consistency or commn solution at that time.
PACJET P3 targeted to depart 1730 PST Sunday Feb 18th for operational
data gathering.
Gudgel
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Soundings Status
Flight Plan |
MRY - P1
|
FL 180 to FL 200
|
P1
|
Spiral down to 1,000 ft.
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P1-P2
|
Flux stack and porpoise 1,000 ft to 8,000 ft.
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P2-P3-P4
|
Frontal module.
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P4-P5
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Porpoise 1,000 ft to 8,000 ft.
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P5
|
Spiral up to 8,000 ft and back down to 1,000 ft.
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P5-P6
|
1,000 ft
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P6
|
Spiral up to 8,000 ft and back down to 1,000 ft.
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P6-P5
|
1,000 ft.
|
P5-P7
|
Porpoise 1,000 ft to 8,000 ft.
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P7-P8-P7
|
Frontal module.
|
P7-P9-P10
|
Porpoise 1,000 ft to 8,000 ft.
|
P10-P11-P10
|
1,000 ft with spirals up and down to 8,000 ft.
|
P10
|
Spiral up to 8,000 ft.
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P10-P12
|
8,000 ft.
|
P12
|
Spiral up to FL120
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P12-P10
|
FL120
|
P10-P16
|
1,000 ft with porpoises to 8,000 ft.
|
P16-MRY
|
Return flight.
|
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Soundings Status
Sounding Status |
18 February |
Bodega Bay | Soundings as event develops. |
Cazadero | Soundings as event develops. |
Oakland | Soundings requested at 3Z. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
19 February |
Bodega Bay | Soundings as event develops. |
Cazadero | Soundings as event develops. |
Oakland | Soundings requested at 9, 15, 18 and 21Z. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
20 February |
Bodega Bay | Soundings as event develops. |
Cazadero | Soundings as event develops. |
Oakland | Soundings requested at 3 and 6 Z. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
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