PACJET Projects |
HMT 2004
PACJET 2003
PACJET 2002
PACJET 2001
CALJET 1998
|
PACJET 2001 IOPs |
IOP 1: 20 Jan 2001
IOP 2: 23 Jan 2001
IOP 3: 25 Jan 2001
IOP 4: 31 Jan 2001
IOP 5: 1 Feb 2001
IOP 6: 6 Feb 2001
IOP 7: 9 Feb 2001
IOP 8: 10 Feb 2001
IOP 9: 11 Feb 2001
IOP 10: 12 Feb 2001
IOP 11: 17 Feb 2001
IOP 12: 18 Feb 2001
IOP 13: 21 Feb 2001
IOP 14: 24 Feb 2001
IOP 15: 25 Feb 2001
IOP 16: 1 Mar 2001
|
Background |
About Pacjet
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Data Assimilation Implementation Plan
March 2001 Program Status Report
PACJET 2001 Poster
NSSL Briefing
|
Program Documents |
PACJET and a Long-term Effort
to Improve 0-24 h West Coast Forecasts
Overview Poster
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and Information Service
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Operational Forecasting Components |
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Workshops |
2001 - Monterey, CA
July 13-14 2000 (Boulder, CO)
July Workshop Agenda
September 1999 - Monterey, CA
1999 Planning Workshop Figures
June 1998 - CALJET
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Program Status for 12 February 2001
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status
Status |
Monday, February 12 |
PACJET operations have concluded for this evening.
|
Tuesday, February 13 |
Hard down day.
No weather briefing.
|
Wednesday, February 14 |
No fly day.
Weather briefing 1000 PST.
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status
Observations |
0630 UTC |
NW edge of rainband extends SW from Pt
Conception at least 200km. South and East
of this line, there is broad stratiform
precip up to 40 dBz bright band with
embedded convection to 50 dBz. Heaviest
band is about 75km SE of this line.
Spiral descent at 33N, 120.5W 0610 UTC
found warm frontal shear and stability
between 700-750mb in heavy precip.
P(mb) WndSpd(kt) WndDir(deg) Temp(degC)
700 20 138 -7.3
750 16 51 -5.1
850 26 2 -0.2
900 30 0 1.9
MSLP 1003.8 mb
No echoes evident NW of the rainband
line extending from Pt Conception.
|
0600 UTC |
At 33deg7minN, 120deg18minW, 567mb:
winds: 177deg, 45kt
air temp: -17.0degC, dewpt temp: -18.8degC
Widespread stratiform precip, 35-40dBz bright
band, bright band is ~2.5km above surface.
Heavy stratiform
precip south of Channel Isles. Western edge is
sharp and at 0400 was east of Pt Conception. NEasterly
flow extends far offshore. No orographic forcing near
Santa Barbara. Proceeding to 33N, 120.5W for radar
surveillance leg from there to 123W, 36N (West of
Monterey).
We also interpret this as a warm frontal over-
running area.
|
0511 UTC |
at 34deg1minN, 119deg48minW,
heading: 184deg at climbing alt to 3500ft
Doing a microphysics stack in the stratiform
precip south of the channel islands. Doing
stacks at 6, 9, 12, and 15 thousand feet.
|
0456 UTC |
at 34deg3minN, 119deg24minW, 954mb:
heading: 351deg, at 1500 ft toward western
end of Santa Barbara channel.
winds: 52deg, 11kt
air temp: 7.0degC, dewpt temp: 2.7degC
|
0444 UTC |
at 33deg43minN, 119deg36minW, 953mb:
heading: 92deg , at 1500 ft
winds: 55deg, 13kt
air temp: 6.5degC, dewpt temp: 5.7degC
|
0436 UTC |
Radar image over Santa Barbara channel.
|
0423 UTC |
at 33deg43minN, 120deg57minW, 953mb:
heading: 87deg at 1500ft to new pt
winds: 34deg, 14kt
air temp: 6.9degC, dewpt temp: 5.2degC
|
0415 UTC |
at 34deg10minN, 121deg2minW, 953mb:
aircraft turning toward south after exiting
Santa Barbara channel.
heading: 172deg at 1500 ft to new pt
winds: 34deg, 12kt
air temp: 6.7degC, dewpt temp: 4.7degC
|
0409 UTC |
At 34deg12minN, 120deg35minW, 953mb:
heading: 269deg at 1500ft moving back-and-forth
in Santa Barbara channel between mainland and
channel islands.
winds: 14deg, 9kt
air temp: 6.4degC, dewpt temp: 4.7degC
|
0355 UTC |
At 34deg14minN, 119deg34minW, 920mb:
heading: 271deg, moving to 1000ft toward new pt
winds: 98deg, 9kt
air temp: 5.9degC, dewpt temp: 1.8degC
|
0331 UTC |
|
0312 UTC |
At 0312UTC, P3 at 32deg44minN, 119deg44minW
heading: 50deg (porpoising), moving to pt 11
|
0304 UTC |
|
0246 UTC |
at 31deg14minN, 120deg26minW:
(have sampled profile down to 1000 ft)
heading: 8deg, at 1000ft moving to pt 6
Low-level jet at 600m: 25kt, 180deg
|
0240 UTC |
At 31deg6minN, 120deg24minW
at 800mb: 47kt, 195deg
air temp: 0.0degC, 5.0g/kg
at 950mb: 23kt, 175deg
air temp: 9.6degC, 6.4g/kg
at 1000ft: 8g/kg, mslp:1004.6mb
Spiral occurred within heavy precipitation.
|
0232 UTC |
at 31deg8minN, 120deg28minW, 500 mb:
spiralling down to 1000 ft
winds: 224deg, 41.2kt
air temp: -22.6degC ,dewpt temp:-23.8degC
|
0214 UTC |
At 29deg53minN, 120deg59minW, 409mb:
heading: 12deg at 23000ft, moving to pt 6
winds: 239deg, 60kt
air temp: -34.3degC, dewpt temp: -37.3degC
Broad area of 40-50 dBz echos.
|
0159 UTC |
at 28deg30minN, 121deg30minW, 409mb:
heading: 12deg at 23000 ft (moving to pt 6)
winds: 257deg, 94kt (steady at 94kt)
air temp: -30.3degC, dewpt temp: -55.1degC
|
0150 UTC |
at 28deg53minN, 121deg50minW, 409 mb:
heading:156deg at 23000 ft, moving to pt
winds:258deg, 91kt
air temp: -30.9degC , dewpt temp: -49.3degC
|
0134 UTC |
At 29deg58minN, 122deg51minW, 409mb:
heading: 151deg, at 22700ft
winds: 241deg, 75kt (as high as 90kt seen)
air temp: -36.1degC, dewpt temp: -39.5degC
|
0122 UTC |
At 30deg40minN, 123deg36minW, 409mb:
heading: 149deg at 22500ft moving to pt 5'
winds: 195deg, 56kt
air temp: -36.7degC, dewpt temp: -40.1degC
|
0115 UTC |
At 31deg1minN, 123deg56minW.
heading: 149deg at 22500ft, moving to pt 5
Precip increasing as we move South from pt 4 (32N, 125W).
Embedded cells to 50 dBz. Strong bright band a few hundred
meters off of the surface.
|
0015 UTC |
at 31deg31minN, 127deg17minW, 409mb:
heading: 301deg at 22500ft moving to pt 8
winds: 320deg, 46kt
air temp: -35.1degC, dewpt temp: -56.4degC
|
2400 UTC |
At 31deg56minN, 127deg, 55minW, 409mb:
heading: 301deg at 22500 ft (nearly to pt 3).
winds: 329deg, 60kt
air temp: -35.2degC, dewpt temp: -56.1degC
just turned at point 3.
pt 5 is moved to 28.5N, 121.5W
|
2340 UTC |
at 31deg35minN, 125deg58minW, 446mb:
heading 156deg (toward pt 2) at 20000ft
winds 256deg, 26kt
air temp: -34.7degC, dewpt temp: -50.0degC
|
2255 UTC |
At 34deg 38minN, 127deg42minW heading:248deg (to pt 1) at 20000ft.
|
2157 UTC |
P3 ob: at take-off the 850mb level
information for MRY is air temp: -2.1degC, dewpt temp: -12.0degC
winds: 180deg, 8kt.
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status |
Forecast Discussion |
10:40 pm PST 12 Feb
Things really starting to ramp up in S. Calif.; just got off the
phone with LOX and they're considering going to Flood Warning. Warm
frontal boundary setting up across S. LA Basin acting now increasingly
acting as a focusing mechanism for heavy precip. Warm frontal passage
occurred at Avalon between 05 and 06Z; now reporting winds up to 31
knots from the SSE with a rapidly falling pressure and heavy rain.
Mesoscale circulation seems to be focusing in L.A. Basin area...if
low-level boundary were to move in from offshore (with shift to SW winds
behind it), and if could get just abit more unstable, would be a
near-classic set-up for an L.A. Basin tornado. However, at this time
instability looks like it will remain too marginal and low-level wind
shift to SW will probably not reach coast. Would have been a great
event for 2 airplanes...or even one plane with 2 crews (so it could be
turned around and sent back out).
0630Z Weather Update
Sulphur Mountain (KVTX) radar indicates that strongest rainfall---about
50 dBz--has moved inland into the Ventura county mountains,
north-northeast of Oxnard. Large area of 35-45 dBz extends south of
Santa Barbara and west-southwest of Santa Ana. Hourly rainfall reports
at 06Z had several in the 0.15-0.25 inch range. The highest report in
the past hour was 0.47 inch at the Signal Hill city hall in the San
Gabriel Valley.
Infrared satellite loops place the low near 35N/124W. The low has become
more diffuse during the past hour. Cold cloud-top enhancement become
more widespread off the southern California coast and inland over the
Ventura and Kern county mountains, with cloud top temperatures around
-50c. Offshore cold enhancement region rotating toward the Los
Angeles-Anaheim coastal area, and spreading south toward San Diego.
GS
0530Z Weather Update
Satellite water-vapor loops show the low near 35N/124W. The area of
cloud enhancement is over eastern two-thirds of the Santa Barbara
channel region. Cold cloud-top enhancement becoming evident along the
Ventura county coast, with cloud top temperatures around -50 C. Hourly
rainfall amounts through 05Z generally 0.16 inch or less, except for
0.35 inch at Refugio, in Santa Barbara county. Sulphur Mountain (KVTX)
and Santa Ana (KSOX) radars show large area of 35-45 dBz extending from
east of Santa Barbara to Anaheim, with a few 50 dBz returns along the
coast southwest of Oxnard.
GS
9 pm PST 12 Feb
At 0430Z, would guesstimate from sat image triple pt somewhere vicnity
of 31N, 121W. Sat suggests max dynamics shifting south -- eta may turn
out to be right afterall, in having max precip work southward a bit
overnight and Tues morning. To + 3 hr eta (valid 03Z) shows max omega
over Orange Co of 18 ubar/sec trailing to second max near 29.3N,
120.63W. By 12Z Tues, peak is along northern Baja coast about 100 mi
south of SAN, reaching 33 ubar/sec! ...but new secondary max omega
develops over San Bernadino mtns, approx. 26 ubar/sec. If flight time
permits, might be interesting to sample area near triple point -- where
fronts should be most intense. As you had back home, would be
interested to hear how far north precip extends under cloud shield
(northern extension of high clouds now north almost to Monterey).
No lightning activity noted throughout event thus far vicinity S. Calif,
though nldn has just recently picked up a couple of strikes at distant
locations: one with a cell at 38.2N, 124.9W, the other with a cell at
33.7N, 126.75W.
Warren
0430Z Weather Update
Infrared satellite loops show low centered about 100 miles west of
Monterey. Latest Sulphur Mountain (KVTX) radar shows a large area of
35-45 dBz from Oxnard to approximately 50 nmi south, with smaller areas
near Santa Monica, and between San Diego and San Clemente Island,
heading for Los Angeles. Heaviest rains are occurring along leading edge
of area of cloud enhancement on satellite loops. Hourly rainfall
reports, including METARS, continue generally 0.08 inch or less; highest
report was 0.24 inch at Live Oak Dam in the Los Angeles county
mountains.
GS
8:30 pm PST 12 Feb
Center of coldest cloud tops on IR (approx. -52C) now moving into LA
Basin. ASOS show widespread light to moderate rain, undoubtedly heavier
on mtn slopes, with light offshore surface flow throughout the Basin.
Proto warm front seems to be intersecting the coast somewhere around N
San Diego Cty and offshore to a bit north of buoy 47 (32.4, 119.5),
which had an apparent warm frontal passage between 02Z and 03Z.
Just fyi...7 of the drops made it into the Eta model initialization
(though may not have helped it much!) and we are getting 03Z and 06Z
soundings from San Diego (big thanks to Ivory). 03Z SAN sounding shows
0.75 in precip water and a close to saturated, moist-neutral layer to
about 550 mb.
0330Z Weather Update
Sulphur Mountain (KVTX) radar showing two areas of light to moderate
precipitation. One area coming onshore at this time from Los Angeles
south to San Clemente; the other from Santa Barbara to east of Oxnard.
Returns mostly 25-35 dBz with an area of 40 dBz south of Oxnard. A small
area of 40 dBz also southwest of San Clemente. Highest rainfall reported
past hour was 0.43 inch at San Antonio Ridge, in Santa Barbara county.
Rainfall over Ventura and Los Angeles counties, and eastern San Luis
Obispo county past hour generally 0.13 inch or less.
IR satellite loop shows the low centered near 36N/124W. The area of
enhancement centered near 33N/121W showing signs of weakening the last
few frames. The water vapor loop shows a dry slot becoming wrapped into
the circulation around the low at 30N/124W, along the back edge of the
enhanced cloud region.
GS/DW
630PM PST Satellite and Radar Discussion
Light rain continuing over the area from San Luis Obispo county south
through Los Angeles county. Rainfall amounts in the past hour generally
0.08 inch or less; highest report was 0.31 inch at the Calleguas Creek
at Chuci, in coastal Ventura county.
IR satellite loops show the low center near 35N/124.5W. The offshore
area of enhancement is coming onshore near Point Conception. Rapidly
developing cloud enhancement occurring over the LA basin, extending
across the San Gabriel Mountains and the Mojave Desert into southwestern
Nevada.
Weak blocking flow indicated in the California Bight by the Goleta
profiler. At 02Z it shows southeast wind at 10 knots from the surface
through 1500 m. Southeast to East-Southeast wind of 5 to 10 knots to a
depth of 600 m has been present since 21Z.
GS/DW
5:45 pm PST 12 Feb
IR sat for region of development off S.
Calif shows massive growth in areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues.
A few scattered pixels now at -51C; now extensive area of cloud tops
colder than -40C. If you get this message in time, suggest following
modifications to flight path (if possible). (1) Extend path segment
from pt 4 to pt 5 *past* present pt 5 (I have as 28, 123) another 50 or
60 km to get to leading edge of cloud band (unless no indication of
precip that area). Then suggest you move pt 6 from present 32.5, 120 to
approx. 33.5, 120.5 if possible to get further under cold cloud top
area. Would imagine LOX and SAN would be very interested in precip
rates and low-level air characteristics under this rapidly expanding
cloud mass -- not sure if pt 5 to pt 6 is sched for low-altitude, but
that would seem best.
530 PM Satellite and Radar
Light showers have developed over San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara,
Ventura and Los Angeles counties. Rainfall amounts 1600-1700 PST mostly
0.05 inch or less, though locally as much as .20 in the LA metro area,
and the mountains and eastern valleys of Ventura county. Highest amount
past hour was 0.28 inch at Rocky Peak in Ventura county.
Satellite loops show the low center about 150 miles west of Monterey.
Leading edge of cloud shield located at 32N/122W. IR loop shows area of
enhancement centered 33N/132W, Leading edge of enhanced area will reach
Santa Barbara south coast next hour. Extrapolation of movement shows
center of enhanced area will hit Ventura county in 2-3 hours.
GS/DW
4:30 pm PST 12 Feb
Max precip amounts from 9:15 am to
3:15 pm PST: SB and Ventura County: a few reports of 0.2 to 0.5 inches
mtns of east SB Co and Ventura Co. LA County: highest report 1.65 inches
at Live Oak Dam (south slope of San Gabriel's I think). Also 1.06 inches
at Opid's Camp (south slope of San Gabriels). Highest in Orange Cnty Mtns
0.45 inches. 0.70 inches at Big Bear.
Radar shows broad general region of precip streaming into S. Calif. coast
from SW. Highest reflectivties of 40-45 dbz in coastal extreme southern
Orange Co/extreme northern San Diego Co, San Gabirel and San Bernadino
Valleys along slopes of San Gabriel Mtns, and vicinity of Santa Monica
mtns (here max less, more like 35-40 dbz). Many large holes in
(genearlly weaker) reflectivity field offshore.
Flood or Flash Flood Watches have been issued by both Oxnard and San
Diego WFOs for most of coastal region of S. Calif through Tues. am. Both
offices also mentioning possibility of thunderstorms and San Diego has
issued a marine weather statement mentioning possibility of waterspouts.
Flood Watch issued by Oxnard starts 10 pm tonight, no starting time
specified by San Diego.
San Diego WFO just issued NOW for increasing rain, working southwards
during the early evening. Indicate possible max precip rates of > 0.25
in/hr.
Warren
3 pm PST 12 Feb
Over past couple of hours, has become
more difficult to precisely define vort center -- probably multiple vort
max developing in region of interaction with baroclinic leaf. At 2:45
pm, best sat estimate of primary center location is 31.42N, 127.28W.
May have been just a shade too far west with 2 pm location -- perhaps
127.60 rather than 127.80. Probably another vort max near 32.33N,
126.39W and perhaps others in that general area as well. Hard to
project where any particular vort max will be at 00Z or later given
multiple centers and complex interaction. SW'most of these 2 apparently
mvg SE approx. 25-27 knots while one near 32.22, 126.39 moving slowly
east.
Also...just received e-mail from Dave Danielson: after discussion with
Ivory approx. 12:30 pm, both now feel heaviest precip may occur north of
where indicated by Eta -- in L.A. vicinity and perhaps northward along
coast towards SBA.
2:15 pm PST 12 Feb
At 22Z, vis and ir sat indicate upper-level
vort max centered near 31.75N, 127.80W. Sat also indicates significant
interaction now occurring between vort max and baraoclinic leaf, with
rapid cooling of baroclinic leaf cloud tops. Appearance is of
developing instant occlusion. Between 19z and 22z, lowest cloud top
temps in IR have gone from -30C to -45C! AT 22Z, one element with -45C
top centered at 32.26N 123.73W, second centered at 31.44N 123.72W
(actually -46C in center). Sat suggests developing instant occluded
front intersects NW edge baroclinic leaf approx. 31.25N 125.43W.
1130AM PST MON FEB 12 2001
Short Term (Mon - Wed)Discussion
Eta seemed to have a good initializaion of the 500mb vorticity field,
though both the Avn and Eta had too broad of a depiction of the upper
level trough over California. Southern California will be the focus of
weather activity in the short term.
The surface low along the Central California coast this morning will
drop slowly south through tuesday. Compared to yesterday morning's
run...the models have changed their solution of conditions for today and
tonight. Maximum precipitation should be tonight rather than today.
According to the Meso Eta a plume of nearly 1.00 inch precipitable water
will be focused on the vicinity of Long Beach. Also significant
instability offshore this afternoon as a vort rotating around the upper
low catches up with the front and develops. Should see an increase in
precipitation rates around 7 pm. Lifted Index forecast to be -8 with
Cape values of 1300 to 1400 J/Kg. Instability not as strong by the time
this feature reaches the Southern California coast overnight but still
impressive. Rainfall should gradually decrease on tuesday through
wednesday as the low weakens, while high pressure ridges across the
pacific northwest.
Long Term (Thu-Mon) Discussion
Extended models continue to be a bit divergent but the MRF and the UKMET
want to bring a low out of the nothern pacific to the central coast of
California by Friday night. This solution would incorporate subtropical
moisture that would head toward California by southwest flow. With
higher PW values and good onshore flow, it could be a very wet weekend.
DW/Ertl
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status
Flight Plan |
Flight Plan for 12 February 2001
Points 1-6 dropsondes will be launched for NWP verification.
Points 6-12 radar surveillance of front.
Points 8-10 are microphysical studies of orographic enhancement of precipitation.
Vertical Profile for points 8-9-10.
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status |
Aircraft Status |
Monday, February 12 |
Proposed flight for the S. CA area.
|
Tuesday, February 13 |
Hard down day.
|
Wednesday, February 14 |
No fly day.
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status |
Sounding Status |
12 February |
Bodega Bay | No soundings. |
Cazadero | No soundings. |
Oakland | Special 3 hr soundings completed at 0Z Monday. |
Reno | Special 3 hr soundings completed at 12 Z Monday. |
13 February |
Bodega Bay | No soundings. |
Cazadero | No soundings. |
Oakland | No special soundings requested. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
San Diego | Special soundings requested for 3Z and 6Z. |
14 February |
Bodega Bay | No soundings. |
Cazadero | No soundings. |
Oakland | No special soundings requested. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
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