PACJET Projects |
HMT 2004
PACJET 2003
PACJET 2002
PACJET 2001
CALJET 1998
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PACJET 2001 IOPs |
IOP 1: 20 Jan 2001
IOP 2: 23 Jan 2001
IOP 3: 25 Jan 2001
IOP 4: 31 Jan 2001
IOP 5: 1 Feb 2001
IOP 6: 6 Feb 2001
IOP 7: 9 Feb 2001
IOP 8: 10 Feb 2001
IOP 9: 11 Feb 2001
IOP 10: 12 Feb 2001
IOP 11: 17 Feb 2001
IOP 12: 18 Feb 2001
IOP 13: 21 Feb 2001
IOP 14: 24 Feb 2001
IOP 15: 25 Feb 2001
IOP 16: 1 Mar 2001
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Background |
About Pacjet
CALJET Summary
Societal Impacts and User Input
Linkages to National Priorities
USWRP
Data Assimilation Implementation Plan
March 2001 Program Status Report
PACJET 2001 Poster
NSSL Briefing
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Program Documents |
PACJET and a Long-term Effort
to Improve 0-24 h West Coast Forecasts
Overview Poster
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Research Participants |
NOAA Research
ETL,
NSSL,
FSL,
AL,
CDC
National Weather Service Western Region
Eureka,
Hanford,
Medford,
Monterey,
Oxnard,
Portland,
Reno,
Sacramento,
San Diego,
Seattle,
CNFRC
Office of Marine and Aviation Operations
AOC
Naval Postgradute School
DRI CIASTA
CIRES
SUNY Stony Brook
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
EMC,
HPC,
MPC
National Environmental Satellite, Data
and Information Service
CIMSS,
CIRA
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Operational Forecasting Components |
COMET Presentation
West Coast RUC
Aircraft Obs via AWIPS
GWINDEX Poster
Applications Development
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Research Components |
Modeling Research Components
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Related Experiments |
Winter Storm Reconnaissance (Central Pac.)
CRPAQS (CA Air Quality)
IMPROVE (Microphysics)
THORPEX (Synoptic Targeting)
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Observing Systems |
AEROSONDE
NOAA P-3
Wind Profiler Network
Satellite Products
NOAA S-band Radar
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Contacts |
Program
Media Contacts
Webmaster
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Workshops |
2001 - Monterey, CA
July 13-14 2000 (Boulder, CO)
July Workshop Agenda
September 1999 - Monterey, CA
1999 Planning Workshop Figures
June 1998 - CALJET
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Program Status for 9 February 2001 : IOP 07
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status
Status |
Thursday, February 8 |
Microphysics study flight take-off at 2330 PST.
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Friday, February 9 |
Weather briefing 1000 PST.
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Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status
Observations |
1527 UTC |
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1513 UTC |
leading edge of significant rainband
from 37deg7minN, 123deg14minW
to 37deg44minN, 122deg34minW
to 38deg7minN, 122deg30minW
extends NW from there parallel to coast
echo max 30-35dbz.
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1510 UTC |
Cazadero Sounding
T (C) Z (m MSL) p (mb)
0 1282 864
-3 1763 813.5
-8 2630 728.8
-13 3314 666.3
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1504 UTC |
at 38deg34minN, 123deg,21min, 642 mb:
(heading to pt 20; heading: 234deg, at 12000 ft)
winds: 209deg, 27kt
air temp: -15.4degC, dewpt temp: -26.1degC
Will drop a sonde at pt 20.
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1448 UTC |
Graupel shower just as we crossed the
coast (at 1448 UTC, at 38deg41minN, 123deg3minW)
echo weakens noticeably E of CZD. Echo top west
of CZD was ~5km.
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1430 UTC |
at 38deg50minN, 123deg45minW, 975 mb
(moving to pt 18 at 1000 ft, heading: 146deg)
winds: 233deg, 21kt
air temp: 6.9degC, dewpt temp: 4.8degC
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1334 UTC |
At 39deg23minN, 123deg55minW, 974mb:
(moving to pt 13, heading; 178deg, at 1000 ft)
winds: 192deg, 15kt
air temp: 6.2degC, dewpt temp: 4.8degC
Will do the CZD racetrack pattern. After
reaching pt 13, will proceed to pt 14 and
run the box counterclockwise. Will wait to
see if microphysics stacks are worthwhile.
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1214 UTC |
At 40deg34minN, 124deg52minW, 895 mb
(heading toward the South; 160deg)
winds:194deg, 17kt
air temp: 0.6degC , dewpt temp:-0.7degC
Likely will leave the Cape Mendocino area for
IOP-7 and will try to sample near CZD. Monterey
radar images suggest some precip enhancement
N of SFO Bay. Will go to investigate.
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1214 UTC |
At 39deg57minN, 125deg7minW, at 970 mb:
(heading : 235deg, at 1000 ft)
winds:210deg, 16kt
air temp: 6.5degC , dewpt temp: 3.5degC
Currently running a triangle between points
3, 4, and 5.
Features on LF match up well with Eureka 1201 Z
radar image.
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1147 UTC
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1143 UTC |
At 40deg0minN, 124deg35minW, 849 mb ( 5000 ft):
(porpoise top)
winds: 219deg, 18kt
air temp: -1.8degC , dewpt temp: -2.8deg
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1142 UTC |
Probable NCFR orientation offshore
38deg47min, 124deg11min to
38deg12min, 124deg32min to
37deg20min, 125deg13min
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1140 UTC |
At 40deg4minN, 124deg48minW, 975 mb ( 500 ft):
(moving to pt 5, heading: 122deg, will porpoise
from pt 3 to pt 5)
(porpoise bottom)
winds:216deg, 14kt
air temp: 7.5degC , dewpt temp: 4.2degC
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1108 UTC |
at 39deg57minN, 124deg9minW, 975 mb (1000 ft):
(moving to pt 4 ,heading:325deg)
winds: 148deg, 20kt
air temp: 5.7degC ,dewpt temp: 3.7degC
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1035 UTC |
At 40deg10minN, 124deg43minW, 751 mb:
(moving to pt 10 at 8000 ft)
winds: 234deg, 19kt
air temp: -7.6degC, dewpt temp: -10.6degC
No strong echo activity in current location.
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1015 UTC |
at 40deg28minN, 124deg40minW, 975 mb
(have been spiralling down at pt 8 to 1000 ft,
now moving to pt 9, heading: 160deg)
winds: 205deg, 17 kt
air temp: 5.2degC ,dewpt temp: 5.1degC
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0953 UTC |
At 39deg59minN, 123deg43minW, 695 mb
(moving to pt 5 at 10000 ft)
winds: 212deg, 30kt
air temp: -11.6degC, dewpt temp: -13.4degC
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0945 UTC |
Along NCFR, intense bowing segment w/
convex leading edge near 39.5degN, 124.5degW.
Highly convective in warm sector seeing much
convection to our south.
Echo tops: 6-7km
max reflectivities: 45-50 dbz
Bright bolt of triggered lightning on
front of P-3.
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0937 UTC |
At 40deg0minN, 124deg16min, 904mb
(moving to pt 5; heading: 146deg)
winds: 205deg, 27kt
air temp: 2.2degC, dewpt temp: 2.2degC
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0927 UTC |
At 40deg29minN, 124deg34minW, 905 mb:
winds:214deg, 27kt
air temp: 1.8degC ,dewpt temp: 1.8degC
Getting pelted with graupel (3-4mm diam) at 3000 ft.
Copious radar echoes 45-50 dbz (some greater than 50).
NCFR immediately to our west. Great data. Winds showed
direction of 153-160 deg below 1000 ft, max winds of
37 kt within blocked flow.
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0853 UTC |
At 40deg9minN, 125deg13minW, 912mb
(heading: 339deg, about to hit pt 3)
winds: 244deg, 15.5kt
air temp: 2.5degC, dewpt temp: 0.8degC
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0844 UTC |
Heading 348 degrees, just passed through convective band.
At 39deg36minN, 125deg3minW, 908mb
winds: 230deg, 21.6kt
air temp: 2.2degC, dewpt temp: 1.3degC
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0836 UTC |
Proceeding toward pt 3, ETA at pt 3 0900 UTC.
At 39deg5minN, 124deg52minW, 913mb
winds: 232deg, 26.3kt
air temp: 3.2degC, dewpt temp: 2.4degC
Intense rainband (probable Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband):
orient: 30-210deg
echo top: 8km , echo max: 40-45 dbz
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0700 UTC |
Bodega Bay Sounding
T (C) Z (m MSL) p (mb)
0 1220 875
-3 1732 821
-8 2726 723
-13 3693 637
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Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status |
Forecast Discussion |
PACJET IOP#07 Short Term Forecast Discussion
NWS/PACJET Operations Center, Monterey, CA
1545 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
No lightning indicated.
Moderate rain was measured across the northern SF bay area between
14z and 15z. Hourly rainfall reports were mainly between
.10 and .25 in. Maximum recorded amount for the hour was .40 in.
at Yorkville in the Russian River Basin.
At 1542Z the intensity of most showers off the coast were between
25 and 35 dbz. However, an embedded echo of 51 dbz was indicated
by radar at 36 deg 38minN 122 51minW.
DW
PACJET IOP#07 Short Term Forecast Discussion
NWS/PACJET Operations Center, Monterey, CA
1440 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
A single lightning strike was detected offshore from Monterey at
1420Z. The location was 36N 124.4W.
Showers continue to track across Northern California, but at this
time the strongest radar echoes are noted across the San Francisco
Bay Region into the Sacramento Valley.
Santa Rosa reported a wind shift from 150 at 05kt to 260 at 03kt at
1420z. Between 13z and 14z Santa Rosa reported 0.17 in. while
Hawkeye reported 0.19, Farallon Island with 0.20, Calistoga 2W
with 0.24, and Ross and St. Helena 4WSW each with 0.16. Further
South rainfall was just beginning to intensify at 14z with hourly
amounts of less than 0.10.
Maximum radar reflectivities at 1444Z are noted over the Santa Cruz
mountains with a return of 51 dbz 4 mi SW of the McQueen ridge
radar site. Radar generated cell movement was from 197 deg. at 36
kts.
DW
1345 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
No lightning indicated.
Moderate rain is being reported at Santa Rosa with 0.09 in.
between 13z and 1328Z. Between 12z and 13z rainfall reported
included 0.28 in. at Bridgeville in the Van Duzen Basin, 0.16
at Ft. Seward, and another 0.12 at Honeydew.
Besides the showers moving into Northwest California, there is also
an area of enhanced precipitation across the Northern San Francisco
Bay Area extending into Lake County. 12z-13z amounts included 0.12
in. at Venado and Upper Lake.
Gauges in the Santa Cruz Mtns. all reported totals of 0.04 in.
between 12 and 13z except 0.12 at Scotts Valley.
1230 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
No lightning indicated.
The 1224Z Radar image shows a line of showers with return of
20 to 30 dbz extending SSW to NNE through 40.0N 125W. Strongest
returns of 35dbz are indicated of Eastern Humboldt county and about
10 mi offshore from Arcata.
The cold front has reached Pt. Reyes with moderate rain indicated
for the past hour in the vicinity of Cazadero.
Rainfall reports from 11Z to 12Z include 0.24 in at Miranda, 0.20
at Orick, 0.16 at Ft. Seward, 0.12 at Honeydew, and 0.08 across
much of the Russian and Napa River basins.
DW
1130 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
The 1124Z Radar image shows the furthest eastward progression of the
cold frontal rain band at 40.4N 123.5W.
A region of 20 to 30 dbz echoes extends from Crescent City down to
Point Arena. There are a few cells of 35 dbz over Cape Mendocino.
IR imagery shows enhanced cloud tops associated with the cold front
extend as far south as Point Arena where the front is currently
making landfall. Cloud top temperatures are -35 to -45C.
Honeydew reported 0.12 inches of rain between 10Z and 11Z...the same
amount it received between 09Z and 10Z. 0.12 also at Miranda in the
Eel River Valley and 0.08 at Orick.
DW
1040 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
First lightning strike detected at 1025Z at 39.8N 124.1W.
Cell is moving to the NE with return of 40dbz.
1035Z Radar image shows a maximum return of 50 dbz at 40.52N
124.24W. Echoes of 30 dbz or greater continue to be confined to the
vicinity of Cape Mendocino.
DW
0950 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
No lightning strikes detected in the past 3 hours.
0930 Radar image shows a box of mainly 35 to 40 dbz echoes
bounded at 40.8N 124.8W to 40.2N 124.8W and extending to the coast.
A small maximum of 50 dbz is located at 40.41N 124.62W
0950 Radar indicates this band has of echoes has weakened with echoes
as strong as 35 dbz mainly only within 10 mi of Cape Mendocino.
06Z run of the mesoeta depicts negative LI through 15Z only in the
region north of Pt. Reyes. At 12Z forecast Maximum CAPE values of 850
J/Kg and LI of -3 are forecast for 38.6N 128W. Nearly as impressive
values are forecast for the region from 38.1 129.0 to 39.0 125.6
DW
0840 UTC February 9, 2001
Discussion...
No lightning strikes detected in the past 3 hours.
NCFR is oriented N to S from Southern Oregon Coast to about Cape
Mendocino 35 mi offshore, before beginning to trail off to the
southwest. frontal position is approx. 85 mi W of Pt. Arena
The front is moving E at approximately 25 Kts.
Current maximum radar return 45 dbz 28mi due W of Cape Mendocino.
1710 UTC, February 8, 2001
Short Term (Thu - Sat) Discussion
Model 5H initialized okay with the next Gulf of AK vortex that will slide
into the western US this period. The base of the vortex looks a little
sharper than what the model height analysis is showing. Vort vertification
is good.
Model verification over the eastern Pacific for the past several runs shows
the models, especially the AVN, have been moving previous vortexes too far
east into the western US. 5H verification shows a clear positive bias over
the eastern Pacific. Threrefore, although both the Eta & AVN are not too
different, we need to dig these systems farther south. Verification of RH &
PWs also shows the models too dry over the eastern Pacific.
Will follow the lead of the Eta which brings more energy into central CA
this period. The AVN is strong, but farther north with the main 5H vort
that pushes into central CA.
Sensible weather features associated with this next vortex should bring
frontal precipitation into northern CA later tonight with the front
reaching the SFO region around 12 UTC. Post frontal/orographic
precipitation will quickly follow the front as onshore flow increases,
while mid/upper level dynamics remain strong. The models are depicting
strong left exit region upper jet dynamics over central CA. This should
support heavy precipitation in the favored orographic regions of the
central/northern CA coastal areas and sierra.
Long Term (Sat - Thu)
A second strong Gulf of AK vortex is expected to dig into the eastern
Pacific very quickly on the heels of Friday's system. The vortex is
expected to move to just off the Pacific northwest coast by Sat evening
with strong mid/upper level dynamics digging into northern CA. This should
bring another round of mod/heavy precipitation into northern CA Sat
afternoon/evening and central CA by Sat night. Beyond this time frame, the
models are having some difficulty with mid/upper level heights.
Yesterday's models brought shortwave energy through the eastern Pacific
ridge axis and into CA by late in the week, but today's medium range models
are showing very little energy cutting through the base of the eastern
Pacific ridge. This latest solution is very similar to what happened last
week, which led to several days of dry/warm weather.
Eckert/PACJET Forecaster
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status
Flight Plan |
|
Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Flight Plan |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status |
Aircraft Status |
February 8 |
Night flight starting at 2300 PST.
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Status |
Observations |
Forecast Discussion |
Aircraft Status |
Soundings Status |
Sounding Status |
8 February |
Bodega Bay | No soundings. |
Cazadero | No soundings. |
Oakland | Special soundings requested every 3 hours from 0 Z Friday - 0 Z Saturday. |
Reno | No special soundings requested. |
9 February |
Bodega Bay | Soundings as event develops. |
Cazadero | Soundings as event develops. |
Oakland | Special soundings requested every 3 hours from 0 Z to 0 Z Saturday. |
Reno | Special soundings requested every 3 hours from 12 Z Friday to 12 Z Saturday. |
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