Program Status for 6 February 2001 : IOP 06

at 976 mb (spiral bottom), ~1000 ft:
winds: 37kt 336deg
air temp: 5.1degC ,dewpt temp: -2.7degC

We are now heading for Monterey at 1000ft. ETA 4:20pm PST (wheels on the ground).

at 775 mb (at porp bottom)
winds: 31kt, 330deg
air temp: -8.8degC ,dewpt temp: -12.9degC

at 595 mb (at porp top):
winds: 19kt, 335deg
air temp: -22.9degC ,dewpt temp: -34.4degC

at 980 mb:
winds: 10kt 315deg
air temp: -6.9degC ,dewpt temp: -7.9degC

at 982 mb (~1000 ft)
winds: 40kt, 341deg
air temp: 5.7degC ,dewpt temp: 0.3degC

At UTC, P3 at (at pt 15)
at 982 mb:
winds: 38kt, 342deg
air temp: 5.3degC ,dewpt temp: 0.1degC

at 780 mb:
winds: 46kt, 339deg
air temp: -8.0degC ,dewpt temp: -22.0degC

We are now moving to pt 16 at ~7000ft.

at 526 mb (at porp top):
winds: 71kt, 315deg
air temp: -21.2degC ,dewpt temp: -48.1degC

at 982 mb (spiral bottom)
winds: 34kt, 338deg
air temp: 5.3degC ,dewpt temp: 0.4degC

Secondary wind max at 850mb; 45kt 348deg

at 696 mb (porp bottom):
winds: 44kt, 340deg
air temp: -14.6degC, dewpt temp: -32.1degC

At 525 mb (porp top):
winds: 54kt, 310deg
air temp:-24.4degC , dewpt temp: -49.1degC

At 2127 UTC, P3 at 39deg41minN, 122deg40minW:
at 529 mb (porp top):
winds: 36kt, 298deg
air temp: -26.1degC ,dewpt temp: -46.1degC

At UTC, P3 at :
at 695 mb (porp bottom)
winds: 36kt, 337deg
air temp: -15.1degC ,dewpt temp: -17.1degC

at lowest pt in porpoise (~10000ft)
at 695 mb:
winds:42kt, 344deg
at 2012 UTC at 40deg4minN, 123deg51minW

At lowest altitude in porpoise (~10000ft):
at 670mb, winds: 333deg, 34kt
40deg11minN, 123deg2minW at 2001 UTC

At 40deg30minN, 124deg26minW winds at 1000 ft show a distinct drop-off in speeds (31kt, 340 deg)

At 38deg44minN, 124deg13minW, 979 mb, heading to pt 2 at 1000 ft
Obs: winds: 40kt, 340deg, air temp: 5.0degC, dewpt temp: -0.9degC

At highest pt of porpoise ( 596 mb), winds inland were 50kt at 280 deg, air temp: -15degC.

Saw winds at 340deg, 42kt at 1000 ft heading outbound toward pt 15 (38 deg 42', 124 deg 20'). White caps seen on sfc.

PACJET IOP 6 Short Term Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service/PACJET Operations Center, Monterey, CA
2230 UTC February 6, 2001

Strong north winds continue along the northern and central coast of California. The Vorticity maximum associated with this system is moving south along the coast tonight. The upper level low and vort will move into southern California tonight and Wednesday morning. A ridge over the central Pacific will continue the north flow along the west coast.

The 12z runs rapidly diverge on the solution of the next system on Thursday. The AVN solution is faster and has two distinct organized areas. The first front brings rain (.10 to .25 )to northern California just after 00Z Thursday but the front is weak with precipitation staying in northern California. The second organized structure in the cold air would move onshore early Friday morning and be the most active with amounts .5 to 1 inch for the higher terrain. The ETA and MRF solution look to have the initial front a bit slower. The front reaches the northern California coast closer to 6z. The ETA/MRF also would have the initial front stronger and extend south into the San Francisco Bay area Friday. The ETA/MRF solution would also have a much less defined second push onto the coast. With late Thursday being the end of the ETA time frame and allowing another run for the MRF and AVN we will have to wait until Wednesday morning to see best solution.

Extended models continue to diverge with the biggest agreement in maintaining some kind of ridge over the central Pacific into next week with weak short waves moving south along the coast..