Situation and Outlook for Macadamias

United States

 

U.S. macadamia nut production in 1999/2000 is forecast at 24,040 tons, 8 percent below the 1998/99 crop, due to drought-like conditions throughout most of 1999. Output for 2000/2001 is expected to remain at the same level. Exports in 1999/2000 are forecast to decrease 12 percent from last year to 3,000 tons, due to decreased demand from Asia, the largest market for U.S. macadamia exports, and increased competition from imports. The United States exports mostly prepared or preserved macadamias. With the exception of Hong Kong, sales to the Asian market are down significantly compared to this same period last year. While sales to date for Hong Kong are up 83 percent, sales to Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are down an average of 45 percent. Japan is the largest single country market, purchasing over 50 percent of U.S. macadamia exports. With no strong recovery expected in Asian demand, macadamia exports for 2000/2001 are forecast to remain the same as 1999/2000.

 

U.S. imports in 1999/2000 are forecast to increase 8 percent to 20,000 tons, due to increased production in other countries and low Asian demand. Other macadamia producers grow solely for export, primarily to the United States, the world’s largest macadamia consumer. Rising U.S. consumer income and spending has been a factor in soaking up some of the excess in world supplies. Additionally, U.S. food processors report difficulties in procuring a steady 12-month supply from Hawaii. The majority of macadamia imports are bulk and industrial product intended for processing.

 

The Hawaii Agricultural Statistics Service (HASS) reports that in shell grower prices averaged $.67/lb, a 3 percent increase from 1998/99. Although prices received by some growers were lower than last season, the overall average was influenced in part by higher, long-term contract prices.

 

Australia

 

Australia is the world’s largest macadamia producer. Output in 1999/2000 is forecast at 34,000 tons, the same as the 1998/99 record crop, due to the crop’s alternate bearing cycle. Macadamia production for 2000/2001 is forecast to increase to 39,100 tons, up 15 percent from 1999/2000, due to increasing acreage, better yields, and more trees coming into production. The Australian macadamia nut industry is highly export oriented, exporting over 50 percent of production. Exports in 1999/2000 are forecast at 18,100 tons, only a slight increase from 1998/99. In 1999/2000, exports are forecast to increase 17 percent to 21,100 tons, due to the larger crop. The United States is still the major single country market for Australian macadamia exports. However, the Asian market, which Japan and Hong Kong dominate, accounted for about 43 percent of total exports in 1998/99. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) estimates that grower prices fell about 12 percent from 1998 to 1999 to A$2.20, reflecting the world oversupply situation.

 

 

South Africa

 

The 1999/2000 harvest is expected to increase 18 percent from last year to 8,000 tons, due to increased acreage and trees coming into full production. This is expected to continue for the next few years, as more than 50 percent of planted trees will come into bearing age. Output for 2000/2001 is forecast to increase another 19 percent to 9,500 tons. If current trends continue, macadamia production could reach 20,000 tons by 2005. Exports in 1999/2000 are also expected to rise, up 14 percent from 1998/99 to 7,650 tons. In 2000/2001, exports are forecast at 9,090, an increase of 19 percent from 1999/2000. South Africa exports over 80 percent of total production, with the United States and Europe being the biggest importers, accounting for 59 percent and 29 percent of total 1998/99 exports, respectively. With current high world supply levels, increasing worldwide production, and modest demand in their two main markets, South African grower prices have fallen about 20 percent from 1997/98 to 1998/99.

 

 

Kenya

 

Macadamia output for 1999/2000 is forecast at 6,000 tons, down 8 percent from last year, due mainly to premature nut harvest and bad weather. Production for 2000/2001 is forecast to increase slightly due to improved agronomic practices and increased plantings. Exports are forecast to increase to 6,481 tons in 1999/2000, up 19 percent from last season, due to the increasing export oriented nature of the industry. Japan and the United States are the primary export destinations, accounting for 58 percent and 32 percent of total exports, respectively.

 

 

Guatemala

 

In 1999/2000, macadamia nut production is forecast at 4,000 tons, an increase of 43 percent from last year. Output for 2000/2001 is to increase to 7,200, an increase of 80 percent. This upward trend is mainly due to new trees coming into full production. Guatemala exports nearly all of its macadamia production, with the United States and the European Union receiving 80 percent and 11 percent of 1998/99 shipments, respectively. World oversupply and the lingering effects of the Asian crisis precipitated a substantial drop in macadamia prices; FOB sale prices have dropped 37 percent to USD$2.20/lb between 1998 and 1999.

 

 

Brazil

 

In 1999/2000, Brazil’s output of macadamias is expected to rise 2 percent to 2,000 tons, as a result of more trees coming into production. This trend is expected to continue, with production expected to rise an additional 10 percent to 2,200 tons in 2000/2001. Exports are forecast to increase 3 percent in 1999/2000 and a further 10 percent in 2000/2001, reflecting the increased competitiveness of the Real as a result of last year’s currency devaluation. The United States and the European Union are Brazil’s top two export markets, receiving 50 percent and 12 percent of macadamia shipments in 1998/99, respectively.

 

 

Costa Rica

 

Macadamia production for 1999/2000 is forecast at 2,000 tons, the same as last year. Output for 2000/2001 is expected to remain the same. In response to several years of low nut prices, producers are switching to other crops. Consolidation in the industry has left only one large macadamia producer in the country. Exports totaled 1,681 tons in 1998/99 and are expected to increase 13 percent in 1999/2000, comprising 95 percent of total production. Costa Rica’s main export market is the United States, which accounted for 77 percent of total exports in 1998/99.

 

 

(The FAS Attache Report search engine contains reports on the macadamia industry for 6 countries, including Australia, Guatemala, Kenya, and South Africa. For information on production and trade, contact Lisa Anderson at 202 720-5028).

Last modified: Wednesday, February 20, 2002