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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Sep 21 - 25, 2008 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 23 - 29, 2008 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 15, 2008 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2008
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 21 - 25 2008
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
TROUGHS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MOST
MODELS WHILE TROUGH IS PLACED NEAR EAST COAST BY THE 06Z OPERATIONAL RUN. THE
500 MB ANOMALIES ARE QUITE WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL BLEND
INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE PART OF CALIFORNIA...THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST... ALASKA...THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE...THE GREAT LAKES... AND THE
NORTHEAST. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER OTHER PARTS
OF U.S. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST... THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST UNDER POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHEAST. WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA AND ALASKAN PANHANDLE DUE
TO POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THERE.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.
MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MOST OF THE TOOLS, BUT WEAK 500MB ANOMALY FIELD.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL FORECASTS, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 29 2008:
FOR WEEK 2, THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR THE 6
TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL BLEND INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR NEW
ENGLAND AND WEST COAST WHILE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...20 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...40 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 10.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO WEAK 500MB ANOMALY FIELD.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE OFFICIAL BLEND, THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS)
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE, THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE AUTO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL BLEND, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, AND THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (NAEFS) PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: HE
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 18
CLICK HERE FOR A GLOSSARY OF TERMS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800924 - 19520929 - 19930924 - 19670921 - 19910923
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19800924 - 19930925 - 19740913 - 19700915 - 19740926
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 21 - 25, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA N N OHIO A N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B N AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N A
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 29, 2008
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH N N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N A W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A B
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN A B AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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