[top]
000
FXUS61 KGYX 100935
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND ZONES TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA
AND TO EXTRAPOLATE TO THE FCST FOR TDA. WILL LWR THE POP FOR OUR
MOST NE ZONES THRU 12Z TO SLGT CHC OR LESS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
MOSAIC LOOP. ELSEWHERE POP LESS THAN SLGT CHC.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TDA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STAYS WELL TO OUR N. HOWEVER...AN UPR LVL TROF AND JET STREAK WILL
CONT TO SLIDE ACROSS NRN MAINE EARLY TDA AND WILL CONT A SLGT CHC
OF SHRA ACROSS OUR MOST NE ZONES THRU THIS MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON THIS UPR LVL SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH E TO BRING AN END
TO ANY ISOLD SHRA. FURTHER S THE HIGH DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR W NW
WINDS WHICH BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY
AS H8 WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THIS FCST...EXCEPT SKY COVER
IS WAY OVERDONE BY THE GFS40 AS IS USUALLY THE CASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE W TNGT AS THE GUSTY
DAYTIME WINDS QUICKLY DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. SHOULD BE CLEAR TNGT
EXCEPT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS PSBL OVER OUR MOST NE ZONES.
GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THIS FCST. AGAIN SKY
COVER HAD TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT GFS40 SHOWED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER THEN THIS. WE GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
AN UPPER RIDGE TO LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES AND A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE REALLY COLD AIR REMAINS
LOCKED UP IN CANADA WITH THE REGION ENJOYING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
W THRU THE SHORT TERM EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GUSTY W NW
WINDS WILL SET UP TDA AS WINDS MIX DOWN DURING THE MAX HEATING
PART OF THE DAY. WINDS LET UP QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS WFO GYX WILL BE ISSUING THE KBHB TAF FOR
WFO CAR UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE CORRECTED SOMETIME TDA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND MARINE
FCST TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND TO EXTRAPOLATE TO THE
FCST FOR TDA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME. W NW WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STAY BLO SCA LEVELS THRU THE SHORT TERM...DESPITE WINDS
PICKING UP FOR A WHILE TDA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 100640
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
240 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH JET CORE CROSSING THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. SPEED MAX WILL QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE BY 12Z THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING A
PLEASANT START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ANTICYCLONIC DURING THE DAY ALLOWING DOWNGLIDE TO PROVIDE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST SECTIONS
TODAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWER
POSSIBILITY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY. NAM INDICATING A MUCH
MORE UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE TODAY WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY MID
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. GFS INDICATING A MUCH
MORE STABLE LAPSE RATE AND LESS CLOUDS EVEN THOUGH RH PROGS
INDICATING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL PLAY IT IN BETWEEN
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE
NORTH. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S THIS MORNING, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN PROVIDING SOME GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 MPH TODAY. WITH LOSS OF HEATING, EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. USED A BLEND OF THE
MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...
THE NAM IS SHOWING A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SLIDING
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT
SHOW THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS THIS SMALL
BUT STRONG LITTLE SHORTWAVE...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER WOULD LIKELY BE VERY
BRIEF AND LIGHT. THE HIGH BUILDS OVER ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIGHTER WINDS. WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS BACKING OVER THE RIDGE AND
NORTH OF THE HIGH MAY LIMIT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE NORTH. DOWNEAST
AREAS BENEATH THE HIGH SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A MILD AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SMALL CANADIAN
HIGH AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EAST. THE HIGH
WILL THEN BRING A SUNNY...SEASONABLE AND TRANQUIL DAY ON MONDAY.
WARM AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THE HIGH ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE BIG STORM AFFECTING THE WEST
APPROACHES. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRING A MILD WIND AND SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MODERATELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY MAY LOWER
CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR AND BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR WINDS AND THE WNAWAVE4 FOR
SEAS. SEAS JUST AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT SEAS TO
DROP BELOW 5 FT LATER THIS MORNING SO SCA NOT NEEDED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/BLOOMER
000
FXUS61 KGYX 100638
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
238 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W TDA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STAYS WELL TO OUR N. HOWEVER...AN UPR LVL TROF AND JET STREAK WILL
CONT TO SLIDE ACROSS NRN MAINE EARLY TDA AND WILL CONT A SLGT
CHC OF SHRA ACROSS OUR MOST NE ZONES THRU THIS MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON THIS UPR LVL SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH E TO BRING AN END
TO ANY ISOLD SHRA. FURTHER S THE HIGH DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR W NW
WINDS WHICH BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY
AS H8 WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY.
GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THIS FCST...EXCEPT SKY COVER
IS WAY OVERDONE BY THE GFS40 AS IS USUALLY THE CASE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE W TNGT AS THE GUSTY
DAYTIME WINDS QUICKLY DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. SHOULD BE CLEAR TNGT
EXCEPT SOME LINGERING CLOUDS PSBL OVER OUR MOST NE ZONES.
GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR THIS FCST. AGAIN SKY
COVER HAD TO BE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY FROM WHAT GFS40 SHOWED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT DOESN`T GET MUCH BETTER THEN THIS. WE GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM
AN UPPER RIDGE TO LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES AND A
LIMITED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE REALLY COLD AIR REMAINS
LOCKED UP IN CANADA WITH THE REGION ENJOYING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
W THRU THE SHORT TERM EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. GUSTY W NW
WINDS WILL SET UP TDA AS WINDS MIX DOWN DURING THE MAX HEATING
PART OF THE DAY. WINDS LET UP QUICKLY WITH SUNSET.
DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS WFO GYX WILL BE ISSUING THE KBHB TAF FOR
WFO CAR UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE CORRECTED SOMETIME TDA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...THE GUSTY WINDS AT MISM1 HAVE
DROPPED QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
WELL BLO SCA LEVELS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING
THE DAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL LET UP A
LITTLE TNGT. SEAS SHOULD STAY BLO 5 FT SCA CRITERIA IN PART DUE TO
THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY OF SFC WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 100429
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1229 AM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE THE FCST TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA AND EXTRAPOLATE
TO THE LATE NGT FCST. MAIN CHANGE IS TO INCREASE THE POP FOR OUR
MOST NE ZONES TO CHC OR SLGT CHC BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWING CONTD ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ACROSS THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
UPR LVL TROF/JET SEGMENT. FURTHER S SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR
THRU THE NGT. OTRW NO REAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
VERY QUIET. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING MIXING
LEVELS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WASHOUT OVER THE AREA MON. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE SO BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MTNS
ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A VEIL OF CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA AS OVERUNNING MID/HI CLOUDS SPILL THROUGH THE RIDGE. BY
TUES CONDITIONS BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES
WILL APPROACH WED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THURS AND FRI HIGH PRES REBUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY ABOVE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SOME LGT GF MAY FORM IN VALLEYS TOWARD SUNRISE BUT PROBABILITY
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAFS.
LONG TERM/FRI NIGHT THRU TUE/...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...WINDS NEAR SCA CONDITIONS OVER
EASTERN OUTER WATERS AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECTED TO EASE UP
OVERNIGHT. SEAS STAYING BLO 5 FT. WILL UPDATE THE FCST TO INPUT
THE LATEST OBSERVED CONDITIONS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN SCA.
W WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TDA AND MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 100235
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1035 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS MAINE DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
FRIDAY...KEEPING THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LESSER
CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOADED IN GMOS AND THEN MODIFIED POP/WIND AND SKY GRIDS W/THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE RUNNING BELOW 50% ATTM IN
REGARDS TO THE 2ND FRONT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APCH THE CWA IN DAY 6
AND 7. ECMWF STAYING CONSISTENT W/ITS EARLIER RUNS IN KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL IN NORTHERN CANADA AND JUST A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROF. THE 12Z GFS40 SHOWS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND CLOSING H5 LOW OFF OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE BY DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY). DECIDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND GO W/CHC POPS FOR SHOWER ATTM AND MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS
W/THE NEXT RUN TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE CONTINUITY.
COMING CLOSER IN...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN AFFECTS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS W/SHOWERS. HIGH PRES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. TOOK THE GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
DROPPED THEM BACK A FEW DEGS W/THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH POINTS TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MID 30S DOWNEAST INTO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 100101
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
901 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY
STRONG VORT MAX ENTERING EASTERN QUEBEC. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WERE DETECTED WITH THIS LOW-TOP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE GRAUPEL
PRODUCTION IN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL. EXPECT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN RADAR...WITH THE
LOWEST SLICE SAMPLING BELOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON UPDATE...INTRODUCED ISOLATED
TSTMS INTO THE GRIDS...AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ON OUR NORTHERN
FRINGE. OTHERWISE...VORT MAX JUST CLIPS OUR CWA...WITH SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY AND LARGELY CLOUD FREE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AREA CLOUDS WITH THE SHOWERS AND VORT MAX FAR
NORTH...WHILE CLOUD EVOLVE INTO UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD MIX ANY MOISTURE OUT SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE SOME...WITH WINDS THE LIMITING FACTOR.
THIS IN LINE WITH MOS BLEND USED BY DAY SHIFT...WITH LITTLE
ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
VERY QUIET. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING MIXING
LEVELS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WASHOUT OVER THE AREA MON. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE SO BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MTNS
ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A VEIL OF CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA AS OVERUNNING MID/HI CLOUDS SPILL THROUGH THE RIDGE. BY
TUES CONDITIONS BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES
WILL APPROACH WED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THURS AND FRI HIGH PRES REBUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY ABOVE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME PATCH MVFR IN LOW LYING
SHELTERED AREAS RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE.
LONG TERM/FRI NIGHT THRU TUE/...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH
SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT IN THE EASTERN WATERS. WITH WINDS PEAKING
NOW...EXPECT SEAS TO START TO DROP OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
STAY JUST BELOW HEADLINES THROUGH THEN. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY OUT OF THE WEST...AND WE MAY NEED SCAS FOR THAT PERIOD.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
000
FXUS61 KCAR 092250
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
650 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS MAINE DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT...WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY...KEEPING THE MOST EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LESSER CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOADED IN GMOS AND THEN MODIFIED POP/WIND AND SKY GRIDS W/THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE RUNNING BELOW 50% ATTM IN
REGARDS TO THE 2ND FRONT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APCH THE CWA IN DAY 6
AND 7. ECMWF STAYING CONSISTENT W/ITS EARLIER RUNS IN KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL IN NORTHERN CANADA AND JUST A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROF. THE 12Z GFS40 SHOWS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND CLOSING H5 LOW OFF OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE BY DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY). DECIDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND GO W/CHC POPS FOR SHOWER ATTM AND MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS
W/THE NEXT RUN TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE CONTINUITY.
COMING CLOSER IN...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN AFFECTS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS W/SHOWERS. HIGH PRES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. TOOK THE GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
DROPPED THEM BACK A FEW DEGS W/THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH POINTS TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MID 30S DOWNEAST INTO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SHOWERS...ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL OCCUR FOR
MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS...THIS EVENING. THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT/FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KCAR 092004
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
404 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO MAINE DURING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN STRATOCU
IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW BRIEF RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE REGIONS TONIGHT. CLEARING SPREADING EASTWARD IN SOUTHERN
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH EASTPORT BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES TO PERSIST IN SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL START TO DROP DOWN FROM THE
NORTH LATE IN THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOADED IN GMOS AND THEN MODIFIED POP/WIND AND SKY GRIDS W/THE
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. CONFIDENCE RUNNING BELOW 50% ATTM IN
REGARDS TO THE 2ND FRONT SYSTEM PROGGED TO APCH THE CWA IN DAY 6
AND 7. ECMWF STAYING CONSISTENT W/ITS EARLIER RUNS IN KEEPING THE
MAIN SFC LOW WELL IN NORTHERN CANADA AND JUST A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION AND A BROAD UPPER TROF. THE 12Z GFS40 SHOWS A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT AND CLOSING H5 LOW OFF OVER
SOUTHERN MAINE BY DAY 6 (WEDNESDAY). DECIDED TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
AND GO W/CHC POPS FOR SHOWER ATTM AND MIDNIGHT CREW CAN ASSESS
W/THE NEXT RUN TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE CONTINUITY.
COMING CLOSER IN...A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MAIN AFFECTS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS W/SHOWERS. HIGH PRES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE CWA FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. TOOK THE GMOS TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
DROPPED THEM BACK A FEW DEGS W/THE HIGH BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH POINTS TO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND
MID 30S DOWNEAST INTO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER THE FRONT
OUTSIDE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. GUSTY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER
20KTS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SCA
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 091821
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
221 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS
HAVE DISSIPATED OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS DRIER AIR RUSHES INTO THE
REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER WITH TIME FROM THE SW TO THE WNW. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER HAVE PLAYED UP CLOUDS MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
MOS VERY CLOSE FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG...HOWEVER...THE ADVECTION OF
DRIER AIR IN A NW FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE THE BUILDUP OF MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
VERY QUIET. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING MIXING
LEVELS. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.
ACCEPTED A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS MAX TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N SUN NIGHT AND
THEN WASHOUT OVER THE AREA MON. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE SO BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MTNS
ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS WILL HAVE A VEIL OF CLOUDS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE AREA AS OVERUNNING MID/HI CLOUDS SPILL THROUGH THE RIDGE. BY
TUES CONDITIONS BRIEFLY CLEAR OUT BUT ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRES
WILL APPROACH WED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THURS AND FRI HIGH PRES REBUILDS INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
GENERALLY ABOVE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME PATCH MVFR IN LOW LYING
SHELTERED AREAS RIGHT BEFORE SUNRISE.
LONG TERM/FRI NIGHT THRU TUE/...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET...BUT WILL
REMOVE FLAGS FOR NOW. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY OUT OF THE
WEST...AND WE MAY NEED SCAS FOR THAT PERIOD.
LONG TERM...NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 091413
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1013 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THE REST OF TODAY. BULK OF -SHRA HAVE RACED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA PER LATEST RADAR IMAGES. HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD
COVER AND DEW POINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECT
70+ DEG FOR HIGHS TODAY OVER SOME SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH MAY EVEN KICK OFF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT HAVE NOT HIT
THIS TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NOT FALL MUCH
BELOW 40 IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W FRIDAY THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE SLIPPING TO OUR S LATE SUNDAY. A CD FNT
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND
PSBL -SHRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND MT ZONES. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THIS FNT ON MONDAY. A CD FNT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE W ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NGT
BRINGING A CHC OF -SHRA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W ON
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR FRIDAY THRU
SATURDAY THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS...BECOMING VFR
TODAY/TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS AND
MINIMAL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO DROP
OFF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
W ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
BLO SCA CRITERIA. SEAS WILL STAY BLO SCA LEVELS DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THEN
SLIDES TO OUR S LATE SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET. A CD FNT DROPS S ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT WITH HIGH
PRES TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FNT AND AGAIN BEHIND THE FNT DUE TO AN INCREASING SFC
PRES GRADIENT. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO SCA LEVELS AS SHOULD
SEAS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 090703
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
303 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL
CREST OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN MAINE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION EARLY TODAY WITH CLEARING TO FOLLOW BEHIND. SHOWERS CURRENTLY
OVER-SPREADING MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL BE SHIFTING INTO
WESTERN MAINE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR EASTERN ZONES EXPECT MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER BY MID MORNING. FRESHENING WEST WINDS AND
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MUCH OF THE REGION
BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND
BREEZY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN WARMER SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH MAY EVEN KICK OFF A SHOWER OR SPRINKLE BUT HAVE NOT HIT
THIS TOO HARD AT THIS POINT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO NOT FALL MUCH
BELOW 40 IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W FRIDAY THEN SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY BEFORE SLIPPING TO OUR S LATE SUNDAY. A CD FNT
WILL DROP S ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AND
PSBL -SHRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND MT ZONES. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THIS FNT ON MONDAY. A CD FNT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE W ON TUESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NGT
BRINGING A CHC OF -SHRA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W ON
WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY USED THE GFS40 AND MAV MOS FOR FRIDAY THRU
SATURDAY THEN GMOS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THIS MORNING QUICKLY IMPROVING TO
VFR BY AFTERNOON. VFR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS AND
MINIMAL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO DROP
OFF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
W ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE SOME GUSTY NW WINDS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE
BLO SCA CRITERIA. SEAS WILL STAY BLO SCA LEVELS DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND. AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY THEN
SLIDES TO OUR S LATE SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
QUIET. A CD FNT DROPS S ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NGT WITH HIGH
PRES TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AHEAD OF THE FNT AND AGAIN BEHIND THE FNT DUE TO AN INCREASING SFC
PRES GRADIENT. HOWEVER, WINDS SHOULD STAY BLO SCA LEVELS AS SHOULD
SEAS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 090656
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
256 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND CREST THE STATE ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING THROUGH VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS
MORNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. RAIN WILL ENTER WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 12Z AND THEN EXIT EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN COVERAGE WILL START TO DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS IT RUNS INTO RETREATING STEEP UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH TODAY SO HAVE
INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RH PROGS
INDICATE CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT OVER DOWNEAST SECTIONS
BUT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES FOR DOWNEAST BUT CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO SCOURER OUT OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS HIGH FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS IS LOW.
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND LIMITED INSTABILITY...HAVE LEFT RAIN SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN TIER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOTHING ABOVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON SATURDAY LEADING TO A
BEAUTIFUL DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS MODERATE.
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING THAT GUIDANCE IS PAINTING
TOO HIGH A PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT REMAINED AT SLIGHT
CHANCE OR BELOW. MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND GOOD WEATHER ON TAP FOR MONDAY
AND PART OF TUESDAY UNTIL ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES TUES PM/WED. &&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT RAIN
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY WITH COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR EXPECTED BEYOND TODAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
TO MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WITH WINDS JUST BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT LATER TODAY. USED THE GFS FOR WINDS AND
WNAWAVE4 FOR SEAS. WAVE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE ON THE
HIGH SIDE CONSIDERING THE WINDS SPEEDS SO LOWER THE WAVE GUIDANCE
A FOOT TODAY.
SHORT TERM: NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE HORIZON. SEAS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW THE
FORECAST REMAINS JUST BELOW.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...LERICOS
LONG TERM...LERICOS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/LERICOS
000
FXUS61 KGYX 090132
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
932 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CRESTING OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE ZONE FORECASTS WERE UPDATED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS
IN RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS.
CURRENTLY...THE SURFACE HIGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING BACK TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY
ON THE HEELS OF THE EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGE...AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID LEV SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SHOWERS HAVE FOCUSED
ON A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE...WITH MORE SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOWERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE 000 UTC SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHEAST
SHOW DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE THICKER
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE TO ARRIVE. THIS COULD ALLOW
SOME AREAS TO RADIATE A BIT...AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
FOR TRENDS.
BASED SOLELY ON EXTRAPOLATION...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE WOULD ARRIVE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR IS WINNING OUT ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE THIS EVENING...SO THIS TIMING WAS SLOWED BY A COUPLE
OF HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR SATURATION. THIS TIMING IS A TAD FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
ZONES...AND THE FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ELSEWHERE...THE TIMING SEEMED REASONABLE AND WAS NOT ADJUSTED
MUCH. LOW TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER A TAD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COOLING
THIS EVENING...BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. ALSO KEPT THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT ACCELERATES EAST BOUND.
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT READINGS
TO MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT SMALL
CRAFT ON THE COASTAL WATERS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WHICH WILL BUILD AND THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRI
THRU SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA SUN NIGHT BUT
WITHE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
BEHIND COLD FRONT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH MOS TEMPS FORECASTING NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD ARRIVE JUST AS THE RAIN ARRIVES...BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 120O
UTC THURSDAY...FROM WEST TO EAST. NOT SEEING MUCH LOWER THAN THIS
TO THE WEST IN THE RAIN AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS BACKED OFF A BIT THIS EVENING...AFTER PEAKING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE ALSO TRYING TO BACK AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
WHILE THE BEST WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SUGGESTS MIXING MAY BE DIFFICULT
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THE SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT AND BUILDING
SEAS AREA EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED...AT LEAST OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM/THURS NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...A SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY NEEDED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURS NIGHT AND FRI...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE LIGHT UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KGYX 082212 CCA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDING
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH...THIN MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...LARGE BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY
IN THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN PA...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST AS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DRY UP UPON REACHING DRY
AIR OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS EVIDENT ON 12Z GYX SOUNDING.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE...IN LINE
BETWEEN TIMING OF FAST GFS SOLUTION AND SLOWER WRF SOLUTION.
MUCH MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT HAVE NOT HIT THIS HARD IN THE GRIDS OR TEXT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT ACCELERATES EAST BOUND.
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT READINGS
TO MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT SMALL
CRAFT ON THE COASTAL WATERS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WHICH WILL BUILD AND THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRI
THRU SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA SUN NIGHT BUT
WITHE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
BEHIND COLD FRONT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH MOS TEMPS FORECASTING NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT AND BUILDING WAVES EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
BE REACHED...AT LEAST OVER THE OPEN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM/THURS NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...A SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY NEEDED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURS NIGHT AND FRI...OTHERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE LIGHT UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
000
FXUS61 KCAR 081949
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
349 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER MAINE LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS JAMES
BAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION AND TAILS SOUTHWARD TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
ALABAMA. A STRONG 140KT JET AT 250MB IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND IS MOVING TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE. THIS JET
WILL SERVE TO ACCELERATE THE FRONT RAPIDLY THROUGH MAINE WITH
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THURSDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH IN CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SECONDARY FRONT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND WESTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES
WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DIURNAL HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COLD POOL ALOFT WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE DOWNEAST ON FRIDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE MARITIMES PULLS OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT DRYING
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE SO CONTINUED TO GO
NOTHING HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR RETURNS FOR MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME AREAS
OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL APPEAR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
LATER IN THE MORNING FURTHER NORTH IN THE REGION. BY LATE
THURSDAY THE FRONT HAS CLEARED THE STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA NEAR 12Z
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: MINIMAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
EVENING...OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/DUDA
000
FXUS61 KGYX 081823
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
223 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL CREST
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDING
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY.
$$
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THIS EVENING AS HIGH...THIN MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER...LARGE BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY
IN THE NIAGARA FRONTIER OF NEW YORK AND WESTERN PA...WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST AS SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DRY UP UPON REACHING DRY
AIR OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS EVIDENT ON 12Z GYX SOUNDING.
EXPECT LIKELY POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE...IN LINE
BETWEEN TIMING OF FAST GFS SOLUTION AND SLOWER WRF SOLUTION.
MUCH MILDER TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT COMPARED TO LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT HAVE NOT HIT THIS HARD IN THE GRIDS OR TEXT PRODUCTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE AND LIMITED LIFT ACCELARATES EAST BOUND.
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY...EXPECT READINGS
TO MAX OUT IN THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT SMALL
CRAFT ON THE COASTAL WATERS (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY THURS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WHICH WILL BUILD AND THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRI
THRU SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA SUN NIGHT BUT
WITHE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO NOT MUCH IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
BEHIND COLD FRONT ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH MOS TEMPS FORECASTING NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR DUE
TO LOWERING CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...GENERALLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT AND BUILDING WAVES EXPECTED
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO
BE REACHED...AT LEAST OVER THE OPEN WATERS. HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM/THURS NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...A SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY NEEDED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURS NIGHT AND FRI...OTHWERWISE
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE LIGHT UNDER GENERAL HIGH PRES.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
&&
$$
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