Leng HB, Preerapatanapokin W, Brown T, Sun LP, Saidel T, Vun MC; International Conference on AIDS.
Int Conf AIDS. 2002 Jul 7-12; 14: abstract no. ThPeC7449.
National Center for HIV/AIDS, Dermatology and STDs, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
BACKGROUND: Although the HIV surveillance system indicates a slowing epidemic, it is critical to analyze current dynamics to understand the likely course of the epidemic and allow the country to plan appropriately for future burden. The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) is a powerful tool for analyzing data to describe the current situation and project future HIV infections and AIDS cases based on various assumptions. METHODS: Epidemiological and behavioral data from the Cambodia surveillance system plus related data from the blood bank and HIV and AIDS case reporting system were analyzed to extract inputs for AEM. The outputs generated included new, cumulative and current HIV/AIDS/death and routes of transmission for each year from the beginning of the epidemic to year 2010. RESULTS: The projections showed there were approximately 240,000 cumulative HIV infections as of 2000: 190,000 people living with HIV, 10,500 new infections, 20,000 new AIDS cases and 17,000 AIDS deaths. Changes in sexual behavior -- especially increased condom use in commercial sex -- have slowed the epidemic enormously. If these reduced risk behaviors are maintained, the prevalence of HIV will continue to decline, with projected infections for years 2005 and 2010 of 115,000 and 47,500 respectively. New AIDS cases will exceed 20,000 a year during the early 2000s, gradually decreasing to around 10,000 new cases in 2010. While most new infections in the early part of the epidemic occurred among clients visiting female sex workers, the major transmission route after 1997 was husband to wife and then mother-to-child transmission from 2001 forward. CONCLUSIONS: The model supports the role of behavior change in producing prevalence declines in Cambodia. Sustaining sex work prevention efforts remains essential, but expanded strategies to address increasingly important transmission modes such as husband to wife and mother to child are urgently needed.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
- Cambodia
- Child
- Disease Outbreaks
- Female
- Forecasting
- HIV Infections
- HIV Seropositivity
- Humans
- Models, Biological
- Prevalence
- Prostitution
- Sexual Behavior
- transmission
Other ID:
UI: 102256279
From Meeting Abstracts