Peerapatanapokin W, Brown T, Limpakarnjanarat K, Kunanusont C, Chitavarakorn A, Yothaprasert K, Phawanaporn V, Phoolcharoen W, Thanprasertsuk S, Sawanpanyalert P, Kalaprawit J, Hanshaoworakul W, Tantinimitkul C; International Conference on AIDS.
Int Conf AIDS. 2002 Jul 7-12; 14: abstract no. ThPeC7448.
East-West Center, Hawaii, United States
BACKGROUND: Realistic assessments of the HIV/AIDS situation in Thailand and the effects of response alternatives were required for planning the Ninth Economic and Social Development Plan in Thailand. These assessments allow adequate resources to be mobilized for prevention efforts and help to ensure appropriate levels care programs for those living with HIV and AIDS. The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) was used to improve understanding of the situation and to prepare projections as inputs to this national planning process. METHODS: Epidemiological and behavioral data from multiple Thai data sources were analyzed to extract inputs of the AEM model. The results of a fit to historical trends in prevalence were used as a baseline and different intervention scenarios were explored using the AEM. RESULTS: In 2000, 984,000 cumulative infections and 289,000 AIDS deaths had left 695,000 people living with HIV/AIDS, while. 29,000 new infections occurred. During each year of the Ninth Plan (2002-2006) over 50,000 Thais will develop AIDS and adult infection levels will remain above 1.5 percent through the end of the Ninth Plan. The model found that 5.7 million infections had been averted by Thailand's multisectoral, well-funded and effective prevention efforts. The source of new infections has changed dynamically over the course of the epidemic: from a dominance of injecting drug use in the late 1980s to commercial sex in the early 1990s. Since 1995, the dominant mode has been husband to wife transmission and injecting drug use has once again become significant. CONCLUSIONS: The model showed the dynamic nature of the Thai epidemic and examining the prevention scenarios showed the need for additional prevention efforts to address spousal transmission, injecting drug use, mother to child transmission while sustaining prevention successes with sex work. The results of this exercise show the value of modeling as a tool in understanding the epidemic and planning for the future.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
- Adult
- Child
- Disease Outbreaks
- Forecasting
- HIV Infections
- HIV Seropositivity
- Humans
- Models, Biological
- Prevalence
- Prostitution
- Substance Abuse, Intravenous
- Thailand
- transmission
Other ID:
UI: 102255913
From Meeting Abstracts