Raab G, Allardice G, Yang SY, McMenamin J, Goldberg D; International Conference on AIDS.
Int Conf AIDS. 1996 Jul 7-12; 11: 154 (abstract no. Mo.C.1576).
Napier University, Edinburgh, Scotland. Fax: 0131 455 3666. E-mail: GRAAB@CENTRAL.NAPIER.AC.UK.
Objective: To project the numbers of HIV-positive people who will need health care to the year 1999 in Scotland. Methods: The evidence for HIV infection in Scotland in the 1980's indicated that the largest group of infected people were intra-venous drug users (IDUs), as well as a smaller number of men infected via homosexual intercourse (MSM). The 1990s have shown a decrease in the number of new reports of HIV infection in IDUs, a leveling of the rate of new reports for MSM and a modest rise in newly reported infections attributed to heterosexual intercourse (MSW). These results are, of course, subject to reporting biases. Reported AIDS cases appear to have plateaued in the early 1990s for the first two groups but are still increasing for the MSW group. Up to December 1995 there were a total of 732 reported AIDS cases in Scotland.In addition to these data, further information about the HIV epidemic is available from various sources. These include unlinked anonymous testing (UAT) schemes in various settings, information from the testing laboratories on the number of people under imunological surveillance, data on newly acquired infections from records of repeat tests and information on deaths in HIV-positive people from record linkage of test results with death registrations. This paper will describe a Bayesian methodology that has been developed that allows a range of possible prevalence estimates to be used in setting the parameters for the number of past infections and used as a model for the HIV epidemic in Scotland.Results and Conclusions: The model shows that there is evidence of continuing spread of infection in all three risk groups in the 1990s. This is lowest in the IDU risk group, most evident in MSM group and most uncertain in the MSW group. This uncertainty is a consequence both of the later emergence of infection in this group and also of the high proportion of unknown infections detected by UAT. The model projects that the number of incident AIDS cases in Scotland will rise from 140 in 1995 to 155 in 1999, and prevalent AIDS cases from 240 in 1995 to 270 in 1999.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- AIDS Vaccines
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
- Disease Outbreaks
- Forecasting
- HIV
- HIV Antibodies
- HIV Infections
- HIV Seropositivity
- HIV Seroprevalence
- Homosexuality
- Humans
- Male
- Prevalence
- Scotland
- methods
Other ID:
UI: 102217522
From Meeting Abstracts