Way PO, Stanecki K; International Conference on AIDS.
Int Conf AIDS. 1993 Jun 6-11; 9: 773 (abstract no. PO-C33-3339).
Center for International Research, US Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC.
BACKGROUND: Levels of HIV infection continue to increase rapidly in many countries. In 15 countries--all in the developing world--we estimate that HIV prevalence has reached over 5 percent of adults 15-49 in major urban areas. At such levels, AIDS will begin to have substantial demographic effects, even at the national level. Mathematical modeling can help to project the potential future increases of HIV infection and the resulting population impacts. METHODS: Data from the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data Base was used to establish trends in HIV seroprevalence among urban and rural low-risk adults. Each country's empirical trend was matched to an interpolated epidemic from a range of scenarios developed with the iwgAIDS mathematical model, providing age-specific AIDS mortality rates. Standard cohort-component methods were then used to project the population of each country to the year 2050, including the additional AIDS mortality. RESULTS: Previous research has demonstrated that the primary demographic impact of an aids epidemic is to increase mortality, for both adults and children. Fertility is little affected, except indirectly through deaths to women who otherwise would be bearing children. Our results show that the impact of AIDS epidemics will vary considerably, even among those countries most affected. Life expectancy will be reduced from one to over ten years, compared to levels expected in the absence of AIDS. AIDS will trim population growth rates by up to one percentage point, but will not result in absolute population declines in these countries in the period considered. CONCLUSION: AIDS will have a major impact on levels of life expectancy and the number of deaths. But population growth in most countries will continue positive, despite large-scale AIDS epidemics. Countries in which AIDS epidemics have already taken off must begin to plan for the likely increases in mortality in the coming decades. For most developing countries, the impact will only be measured indirectly, given the lack of adequate vital registration systems. Mathematical models can assist in describing the magnitude of the impact of AIDS epidemics, in the absence of direct measures.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
- Adult
- Case-Control Studies
- Child
- Demography
- Developed Countries
- Developing Countries
- Disease Outbreaks
- Female
- Forecasting
- HIV Infections
- HIV Seropositivity
- HIV Seroprevalence
- Humans
- Life Expectancy
- Population
- Population Groups
- Population Growth
- Prevalence
- Research
Other ID:
UI: 102206638
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