Michaels D, Levine C, Dubler NN; International Conference on AIDS.

Int Conf AIDS. 1992 Jul 19-24; 8: D413 (abstract no. PoD 5161).

CUNY Medical School/Sophie Davis School of Biomedical Education, New York.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the number of children orphaned by the AIDS epidemic, in order to project the need for family supports, mental heath and social services, and foster and congregate care in New York City (NYC). METHODS: AIDS orphans are defined as children whose mothers (the usual care-giving parent) die of HIV-related disease. A mathematical model was constructed to estimate the number of such children. Cumulative fertility rates were applied to the number of reported AIDS deaths (1981-1990) and projected incident cases (1991-2000) among adult women less than 50 years old. The results were adjusted for the under-reporting of HIV-related deaths, infant mortality, pediatric AIDS deaths, ethnic and racial variation in fertility, decreased fertility associated with late stage HIV disease, and possible changes in AIDS incidence and survival. Ranges were calculated by applying alternative estimates for all variables. RESULTS: By the end of 1991, an estimated 12,200 (range: 10,400-14,200) were orphaned by HIV-related disease in NYC; of these 28% were children (less than 13 years old) and 31% were adolescents (13-17 years old) at the time of their mothers' death. By the year 2000, the cumulative number of NYC AIDS orphans will reach 58,500 (range: 43,500-76,000); 26% of them children and 31% adolescents. HIV deaths accounted for an estimated 40% of NYC children whose mothers died from all causes in 1991, and will account for more than 85% in 2000. Since no data are available on the children of men who die of HIV-related disease, this model underestimates the number of AIDS orphans. It also does not count children who are living with parents with serious HIV disease. CONCLUSIONS: In NYC, a large and rapidly growing number of children and adolescents are being orphaned by the AIDS epidemic. Unless increased attention and resources are devoted to this vulnerable population, a social catastrophe is unavoidable.

Publication Types:

• Meeting Abstracts

Keywords:

• Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
• Adolescent
• Adult
• Child
• Child of Impaired Parents
• Child, Abandoned
• Disease Outbreaks
• Female
• Forecasting
• Foster Home Care
• HIV Infections
• HIV Seropositivity
• Humans
• Infant
• Infant Mortality
• Male
• Maternal Mortality
• Mothers
• New York City

Other ID:

• 92402666

UI: 102200380

From Meeting Abstracts