Law MG; Australasian Society for HIV Medicine. Conference.
Annu Conf Australas Soc HIV Med. 1994 Nov 3-6; 6: 141 (unnumbered abstract).
National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, NSW.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incubation distribution, defined as the time from seroconversion to AIDS, in Australia. METHODS: Data were available from two sources. (1) A cohort of people aged 13 years or more with HIV infection from a blood transfusion. To limit bias in the estimated incubation distribution, people who received a HIV test due to symptoms of HIV infection were excluded. (2) A cohort of men infected with HIV through homosexual contact and with a known or estimable date of seroconversion. To assess any bias due to differential follow-up, people who were not diagnosed with AIDS were, in one analysis, censored at their date of last active follow-up and, in a second analysis, assumed to be AIDS-free until 31 December 1993. RESULTS: In the blood transfusion cohort the cumulative AIDS incidence at four years was estimated to be 11.6% and the median time to AIDS 9.8 years. In the homosexual male cohort the cumulative AIDS incidence at four years and the median time to AIDS were 17.7% and 7.1 years respectively censoring at date last follow-up, and 13.2% and > 8 years respectively assuming follow-up until 31 December 1993. Overseas studies have given estimates of the cumulative AIDS incidence at four years in the range 8% to 17%, and median times to AIDS around 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The estimates of the incubation distribution obtained from these two Australian cohorts are consistent with the results of overseas studies. Possible biases in the estimates are due to selection and reporting biases.
Publication Types:
Keywords:
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
- Australia
- Bias (Epidemiology)
- Disease Progression
- HIV Infections
- HIV Seropositivity
- Homosexuality
- Homosexuality, Male
- Humans
- Incidence
- Male
- diagnosis
Other ID:
UI: 102212279
From Meeting Abstracts