SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated at 105.1 million tons, down 3 million from last year. U.S. exports are up slightly from last year due to reduced competition. Global production is down due to smaller crops though the shortfalls are tempered by a record crop in the EU. Forecast consumption remains well above production for the fourth straight year resulting in a stocks drawdown of 16.8 million tons, the largest since 1994/95.

Over the past month, wheat prices are up slightly from near decade lows. Exportable supplies will tighten with expected production decreases by key exporters. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is forecast down slightly this month.

2000/2001 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Argentina exports up 500,000 tons to 11 million to reflect increased sales prospects.

• Australia exports down 1.5 million tons reflecting lower crop expectations.

• Canada down 500,000 tons to 18 million due to decreased crop expectations.

• Kazakstan up 500,000 tons, reflecting larger crop prospects.

• Turkey down 500,000 tons due to lower exportable supplies.

Selected Importers

• China imports down 1 million tons to 2 million based on slow import pace and adequate stocks.

• Egypt imports down 300,000 to 6.2 million due to a slow import pace.

• Iran down 300,000 due to slower than expected import pace.

• Morocco imports down 200,000 to 3 million based on a larger crop.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003