EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SITUATION/OUTLOOK

• 1999/2000 wheat exports by Argentina are raised 500,000 tons this month, to 8.5 million due to higher production prospects.

• Estimated 1998/99 China corn exports are raised 300,000 tons to 2.8 million and forecast 1999/2000 China corn exports are raised 1 million tons to 3.5 million.

• Wheat imports by China in 1999/2000 are projected at 1.5 million tons, 500,000 below last month’s estimate because of a larger crop.

• Estimated U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 are raised 1 million tons to 50 million, while forecast U.S. corn exports for 1999/2000 are lowered 500,000 to 48.5 million.

• Forecast rice imports by Indonesia in 1999 are raised to 3.7 million tons, up 1.2 million tons from last month, the second highest on record as government and private sector purchases exceed earlier expectations. Indonesia’s 2000 imports are projected at 3.0 million tons, up 500,000 tons from last month.

• Because of smaller production prospects in Brazil, 1999/2000 wheat imports are forecast at 6.3 million tons, 500,000 above last month.

• Rice exports by China in 1999 are estimated at 2.0 million tons, up 250,000 due to a stronger than expected export pace, while exports in 2000 are raised 200,000 tons to 2.1 million. The 2000 import forecast is reduced 100,000 tons to 400,000 from last month’s estimate while 1999 imports are reduced 100,000 tons to 200,000 due to smaller fragrant rice purchases from Thailand during the first half of the year.

• Forecast 1999/2000 EU barley exports are raised 500,000 tons to a record 9 million in 1999/2000.

FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS

• EU wheat exports tumble as feed use soars

• Restructured wheat board will bring changes to the Australian grain industry

• China continues to reform its grain marketing system

 WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW

WHEAT

Global wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 100 million tons, relatively unchanged from the 1998/99 level. World production is forecast to be 576 million tons, down 12 million from the previous year. Among the major exporters, crop decreases are expected to occur in the United States, the European Union, and Canada, while crops in Australia and Argentina are projected up 1.5 million tons each. Production is down in several import markets, including Pakistan, Iran, and most of North Africa while the wheat crop in the former Soviet Union is expected to rebound. Global consumption is expected to be nearly 3 million tons below the previous year, and for the second consecutive year, is projected to exceed production, drawing down ending stocks by 12 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 21 percent.

RICE

Global rice trade in calender year 2000 is forecast to rise to nearly 23.0 million tons, up more than 300,000 from 1999 and the second highest on record. Due primarily to China, global production in 1999/2000 is projected to reach a record 581 million, climbing 10 million tons over the current year’s estimate. Production increases in 1999/2000 are expected for several major exporters, including China, Vietnam, Thailand, and the United States, as well as for Bangladesh and the Philippines, two top importers. Global consumption is projected to expand 6.2 million tons to a record 393.4 million, while 1999/2000 global stocks are estimated to draw down 2.3 million to 48 million tons worldwide.

COARSE GRAINS

World coarse grain production in 1999/2000 is projected at 872 million tons, down almost 5 million tons from the 1998/99 level, while consumption is forecast up 3.4 million tons to 873 million tons. Global trade in 1999/2000 is projected nearly the same as this year at 93 million tons. This is due to a slight increase in sorghum and oats trade, which is offset by declines in rye and corn.

World carryout stocks in 1999/2000 are forecast nearly 1 million tons lower, reversing the trend of rising stocks that began in 1995/96. Although China and the United States continue to build stocks, Middle Eastern, Eastern European and FSU countries are expected to draw down theirs to combat lower than expected production. The EU is also expected to draw down stocks by 3 million due to a smaller crop and expanding exports.

Download the tables in:

Adobe Acrobat Format

Lotus Spreadsheet Format

Return to Table of Contents

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003