![Picture of Firefighter's Drift on July 3rd, 2008. Picture of Firefighter's Drift on July 3rd, 2008.](https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/eot2008/20081014201921im_/http://www.nps.gov/glac/parknews/images/Firfighters_Drift_2.jpg) |
Photo by Mitch Burgard | Firefighters Drift on July 3rd, 2008. |
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July 6, 2008
Firefighters Drift
Hello from the fire management office at Glacier National Park! I am the ‘Prescribed Fire and Fuels Specialist’ at Glacier and I’m thrilled to share information about what is happening with fire management in Glacier through this blog format.
July is upon us, our firefighters and lookouts have been through their training and we are gearing up for the fire season. For now, at least, things are quite green after our first ‘normal’ winter in many years. We are therefore able to help with the national effort and several members of our team are currently assisting with the fires in Northern California. The looming question out there, of course, is what will the fire season be like in the Northern Rockies this year?
It is a favorite pastime of firefighters and western residents to try and predict the upcoming fire season. I will probably blog on this topic frequently but, despite all of the great climatologic forecasts, our tracking of fuel and weather indices and our ‘hunches’ it’s virtually impossible to know what the fire season will be like on most years until late July or early August. Even then, things can change quickly (for better or worse depending on your perspective). As someone once said, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”.
With the arrival of Independence Day it is time for us to check in on one of our traditional predictive indicators of the upcoming fire season, Firefighter’s Drift. This drift of snow, on the lee (northeast) face of the Apgar Range, has been ‘assisting’ firefighters in Glacier for decades; possibly as far back as 1910 when the park was established.
Built up by wind-loading of snow over the winter and sheltered from the sun, this drift tends to be one of the last remnants of snow on the eastern end of the Apgar Range. As the story goes, if the drift still exists on the 4th of July it is going to be an average to below average fire season. If it has disappeared prior to Independence Day it prognosticates a large fire season. Over the years, our fire ecologist has done some investigating on the accuracy of Firefighter’s Drift. As you might expect, it works O.K. on many years but it has ‘missed’ (big time) on several occasions as well.
For what it’s worth, Firefighters drift was still hanging in there on July 4th (see photo above, right). The drift, by the way, is by far the largest I have seen it since I came to work in Glacier in 2001. We won’t know if Firefighter’s Drift was an accurate ‘crystal ball’ until late September but, after a decade or so of large fire seasons, I think many of us are hoping that it proves correct this year!
Firefighter’s Drift is a great tradition but it is just one, admittedly ‘folksy’, tool in our quiver. I don’t put all that much faith in winter snowpack as a fire season predictor but, that said, I don’t open umbrellas indoors or walk under ladders either!
If you are in the park and want to see the drift for yourself, just look to the west from McDonald Creek Bridge in Apgar or from the Fish Creek turn-off at the Camas Road.
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