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WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for 2000/01 is projected down 2.5 million tons to 100.9 million tons. World production is expected to drop sharply as bigger crops in the United States, Brazil, and the EU only partially offset reductions in Eastern Europe and China. Global consumption is expected to continue to grow to record levels, global carryout stocks are down almost 28 million tons.
Global corn trade is estimated up marginally, at 73 million tons. US exports are now projected to increase nearly 8 million tons over forecast 1999/00 levels, largely because of reduced competition from China and Eastern Europe. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Mid Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU will remain the largest supplier, although Australia and Canada are forecast to increase exports.
US Gulf FOB prices for corn have risen over the past month on expectations of a lower crop. Futures prices indicate these higher export prices could continue for the next several months.
2000/01 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- Ukraine corn up 500,000 tons to 600,000 because of higher expected production.
Selected Importers
- South Korea corn up 500,000 tons to 8.5 million because of higher expected feed use.
- Israel corn down 200,000 tons to 550,000 tons due to higher expected imports of feed wheat.
- Malaysia corn up 100,000 tons to 2.4 million because of higher expected demand by feedmillers.
1999/00 Trade Changes
Selected Exporters
- United States corn exports up 300,000 tons to 49.3 million because of larger than expected late season shipments.
- South Africa corn down 400,000 tons to 500,000 tons because new data indicates early season shipments were smaller than originally thought.
- United States barley up 100,000 tons to 825,000 due to strong late season shipments, especially to Saudi Arabia.
- United States sorghum up 150,000 tons 6.35 million because of strong late season shipments to Mexico and Japan.
Selected Importers
- Malaysia corn up 150,000 tons because of higher demand by feedmillers.
- Mexico sorghum up 200,000 tons to 4.7 million due to stronger than expected late shipments from the United States.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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