SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World wheat trade in 2000/01 is estimated at 106.1 million tons, similar to last year’s level, which was the highest in 7 years. U.S. export prospects are tempered by big exportable supplies in Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the EU. Global production is down due mainly to smaller Chinese and North African crops, though the declines are partly offset by record crops in India and Pakistan. Forecast consumption remains well above production, resulting in a third year of global stocks draw down. However, any upward stimulus to prices will be mitigated by continued large stocks in the major exporting countries.

Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have remained at just above decade lows. In early August, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $110 per ton for nearby shipment, down $10 from a year ago. World wheat trade in 2000/01 is up 350,000 tons this month, boosted by higher imports by the EU, Indonesia, and Iraq.

2000/01 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Canada exports up 500,000 tons to 19.5 million, reflecting larger crop prospects.

• United States down 500,000 tons to 30 million due to increased competition.

Selected Importers

• EU imports up 200,000 tons to 4 million as reports of quality problems raise forecasts of high-quality wheat imports.

• Indonesia up 200,000 tons to 3.7 million based on recent stepped-up buying.

• Iraq up 200,000 tons to 2.7 million due to bigger reported purchases under the U.N.-sponsored oil-for-food program.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• EU exports up 500,000 tons to 16 million based on strong late-season sales.

• Japan exports up 300,000 tons to 600,000 on accelerated flour sales to Hong Kong.

• United States exports up 500,000 tons to 29.5 million due to big late-season shipments.

Selected Importers

• Egypt imports up 300,000 tons to 5.8 million due to a surge in late-season arrivals.
  
• Indonesia up 400,000 tons to 3.9 million on unexpectedly strong wheat and flour imports.
  
• Iran imports up 200,000 tons to 7.2 million because of stronger late-season buying.
  
• Pakistan down 200,000 tons to 2 million due to delays in expected food aid arrivals.

• Philippines up 200,000 tons to 3 million on a pick up in late season buying for feeding.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003