FGUS65 KSTR 061832
ESGUT 
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
MAY 5, 2008
                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
                                UTAH
Snowpack conditions across the Great Salt Lake region are above average 
in most locations for this time of year. Below average temperatures in
April delayed the melt at middle and upper elevations. Low elevation snow,
below 8000 feet is largely gone. Stream flow models are indicating 
less than a 10% chance of flood flows, however the potential for reaching 
bankfull is currently above average. Streams will most likely run high 
this spring and areas with small ungaged streams may see an elevated 
threat of bankfull or overbank conditions once the melt begins.  The onset 
of conditions that will raise the threat of flooding will be monitored 
closely and this product will be updated as needed.
Snowpack in the Duchesne basin is near average.  Flood related problems 
due solely to snowmelt are not anticipated at this time.  Mean daily flow 
from the model for points in the Duchesne Basin do not exceed flood 
flows. 50 percent exceedence flows also remain below the established 
bankfull stages. 
At this time, Spring flooding due to snowmelt is not anticipated in 
the Lower Green basin.  While snowpack remains above average at some 
stations the model does not indicate any points going above flood 
flows or bankfull. 
Snow pack conditions in the Sevier River Basin have declined to 60% of seasonal
peak.  Above average snow melt peak flows are currently unlikely.   The
likelihood of snow melt driven flooding is less than 10%.   A combination
of rain upon high elevation snow during the next month may result in local
flooding.  The onset of such conditions will be monitored closely.  
There is no threat of flooding due solely to snowmelt in the Virgin River 
drainage. Much below average precipitation occurred in March and April. Snow 
remains at elevations above 9000 feet but it is limited in areal extent. 
 
For the latest information on peak flows in Utah and the Colorado Basins,
please check our web page:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/product/peak/peak.cgi
B.Bernard, B. Reed, E.Clark, G.Smith
$$