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CIA Home > Library > Center for the Study of Intelligence > CSI Publications > Books and Monographs > CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991

CIA's Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991

CIA's Analysis Of The Soviet Union, 1947-1991

Table of Contents

Cover: CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union, 1947-1991(All Documents are in PDF* format)


Preface [PDF Only 8KB*]

Introduction [PDF Only 101KB*]

Editors and Contributors to this Volume [PDF Only 34 KB*]

Origins of CIA's Analysis of the Soviet Union
Author's Comments: Donald Steury [PDF Only 1.63 MB*]

  1. ORE 22-48, April 1948, Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948 [PDF Only 35KB*]
  2. ORE 58-48, July 1948, The Strategic Value to the USSR of the Conquest of Western Europe and the Near East (to Cairo) Prior to 1950 [PDF Only 144KB*]
  1. ORE 22-48, September 1948, (Addendum) Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1948-49 [PDF Only 233KB*]
  2. ORE 46-49, May 1949, Possibility of Direct Soviet Military Action During 1949 [PDF Only 301KB*]
  3. SE-16, October 1951, The Strength and Capabilities of Soviet Bloc Forces to Conduct Military Operations Against NATO [PDF Only 89KB*]
  4. CIA Intelligence Report, March 1953, Intelligence on the Soviet Bloc [PDF Only 276KB*]


Analyzing Soviet Politics and Foreign Policy
Author's Comments: Douglas Garthoff [PDF Only 1.62MB*]

  1. NIE 11-4-54, September 1954, Soviet Capabilities and Probable Courses of Action Through Mid-1959 [PDF Only 337KB*]
  2. CIA/SRS-1, June 1956, The 20th CPSU Congress in Retrospect: Its Principal Issues and Possible Effects on International Communism [PDF Only 809KB*]
  1. NFAC/ORPA Memorandum for Director, 21 December 1961, An Appraisal of Soviet Intentions [PDF Only 697KB*]
  2. NIE 11-69, February 1969, Basic Factors and Main Tendencies in Current Soviet Policy [PDF Only 162KB*]
  3. NIE 11-72, April 1972, Soviet Foreign Policies and the Outlook for US-Soviet Relations  [PDF Only 424KB*]
  4. OPR Research Study, 1 October 1975, Changing Soviet Perceptions of World Politics and the USSR's International Role [PDF Only 299KB*]
  5. NFAC/ORPA Memorandum, 19 October 1978, The Impact of a Polish Pope on the USSR [PDF Only 377KB*]
  6. SNIE 11/2-81, May 1981, Soviet Support for International Terrorism and Revolutionary Violence [PDF Only 145KB*]
  7. SOVA Research Paper, December 1982, Soviet Society in the 1980s: Problems and Prospects [PDF Only 110KB*]
  8. Intelligence Assessment, February 1987, Gorbachev's Domestic Challenge: The Looming Problems [PDF Only 178KB*]


CIA's Analysis of Soviet Science and Technology
Author's Comments: Clarence Smith [PDF Only 1.94 MB*]

  1. Intelligence Memorandum No. 237, October 1949, Capabilities of the USSR in Air-to-Air Guided Missiles and Related Proximity Fuses [PDF Only 130KB*]
  1. Scientific Intelligence Memorandum (SIM), December 1957, Future Soviet Earth Satellite Capabilities [PDF Only 126KB*]
  2. SIM, November 1958, Geophysical and Astrophysical Instrumentation of Soviet Sputniks I, II, and III  [PDF Only 83KB*]
  3. NIE 11-5-59, September 1959, Soviet Capabilities in Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles [PDF Only 680KB*]
  4. Memorandum, June 1964, The Soviet Reconnaissance Satellite Program [PDF Only 187 KB*]
  5. NIE 11-8-64, October 1964, Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack [PDF Only 446KB*]
  1. NIE 11-3-65, November 1965, Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses [PDF Only 121KB*]
  2. NIE 11-67, June 1967, Soviet Military Research and Development
         [PDF Only 123KB*]
  1. Scientific and Technical Intelligence Report (STIR) 1391/64, March 1986, Soviet Laser Chemistry Research and Applications [PDF Only 234KB*]
  2. STIR, May 1986, Soviet Quest for Supercomputing Capabilities [PDF Only 110KB*]
  1. SWM 86-20036 Intelligence Memorandum, June 1986, The Krasnoyarsk Radar: Closing the Final Gap in Ballistic Missile Early Warning [PDF Only 56KB*]
  1. DI 86-10016, Intelligence Report, September 1986, The Soviets Weapon Industry: An Overview [PDF Only 191KB*]
  2. SWM 88-20026, Intelligence Memorandum, August 1988, US Stealth Programs and Technology: Soviet Exploitation of the Western Press [PDF Only 60KB*]
  1. SW 91-10069 Technical Intelligence Report, October 1991, The Flat Twin ABM Radar: Not as Capable as Previously Believed  [PDF Only 56KB*]


Assessing Soviet Economic Performance
Author's Comments: James Noren [PDF Only 2.39MB*]

  1. CIA/RR 53, December 1954, Long-Run Soviet Economic Growth [PDF Only 131KB*]
  1. CIA/RR 87, January 1957, The New Lands Program in the USSR [PDF Only 637KB*]
  1. CIA/ER 61-15, April 1961, Soviet Military Expenditures by Major Missions, 1958-65 [PDF Only 276KB*]
  2. ER IR 70-10, March 1970, Investment and Growth in the USSR [PDF Only 313KB*]
  3. ER IR 74-2, Intelligence Report, February 1974, Soviet Economic and Technological Benefits from Détente [PDF Only 158KB*]
  4. Memorandum, S-Project, 16 September 1975, The Soviet Grain Deficit [PDF Only 288KB*]
  5. ER 77-10147, Intelligence Memorandum, March 1977, The Impending Soviet Oil Crisis  [PDF Only 72KB*]
  6. ER 77-10436U, July 1977, Soviet Economic Problems and Prospects [PDF Only 282KB*]
  1. ER 77-10769, December 1977, Organization and Management in the Soviet Economy: The Ceaseless Search for Panaceas [PDF Only 271KB*]
  2. SOV 82-10120, Intelligence Assessment, August 1982, Outlook for the Siberia-to-Western Europe Natural Gas Pipeline [PDF Only 76KB*]
  3. SOV 87-10036X Intelligence Assessment, July 1987, Gorbachev: Steering the USSR into the 1990s [PDF Only 191KB*]


Estimating Soviet Military Power
Author's Comments: Raymond Garthoff [PDF Only 2.13MB*]

  1. SNIE 11-14-61, November 1961, The Soviet Strategic Military Posture, 1961-1967 [PDF Only 763KB*]
  2. NIE 11-14-62, December 1962, Capabilities of the Soviet Theater Forces [PDF Only 316KB*]
  3. Intelligence Memorandum, April 1972, Soviet Defense Policy, 1962-1972 [PDF Only 1.04MB*]
  4. SR RP73-1, June 1973, Soviet Nuclear Doctrine: Concepts of Intercontinental and Theater War  [PDF Only 425KB*]
  5. Paper, February 1976, The Track Record in Strategic Estimating: An Evaluation of the Strategic National Intelligence Estimates, 1966-1975  [PDF Only 428KB*]
  6. NI IIM 80-10017JX, October 1980, The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: Implications for Warning  [PDF Only 83KB*]
  7. SOV 89-10031, April 1989, Intelligence Forecasts of Soviet Intercontinental Attack Forces: An Evaluation of the Record  [PDF Only 224KB*]
  8. SR 81-10035X, April 1981, Intelligence Assessment, The Development of Soviet Military Power: Trends Since 1965 and Prospects for the 1980s  [PDF Only 885KB*]

[Erratum for page 305 – supplies missing page xxiii of Document 49] [PDF Only 37KB*]

 

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Historical Document
Posted: Mar 19, 2007 10:51 AM
Last Updated: Jun 28, 2008 01:07 PM
Last Reviewed: Mar 19, 2007 10:51 AM